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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought each day had a chance? I know you had that rogue band the other day. Cold air aloft, but thicknesses not brutal mean moisture in the air and the mtns squeeze it out. You won't have these when it's -30C at 850. 

Yeah I guess they do... but that pattern can also often be Dusting to inch and have a nice day.  Last night dropped an inch of like snow drizzle, I think that’s the cling.  It was snow but all low level small flakes, a decent amount of them.

I dunno, I definitely didn’t expect this scene on the whole when looking at the pattern for this week.  I think town has continued to out perform the mountain some how too.  That plays into the wow factor.

Temps and moisture are good.  It’s been like 25-27F every day and good inversion with lots of moisture trapped under it.  I think we are getting blocked flow upslope from the Worcester Range on the east side of town... that 3500ft ridge line I think is backing up the flow just enough to keep moisture coming in town, while east slope of Mansfield where the ski area is finds itself blocked out a bit.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Loved this one.  Probably one of the first storms I remember truly tracking online using like unisys weather models (or something like that).  Anyone remember that site?  We had 13” in Albany I think.

The AVN and the MRF days... JB daily vids and still good crazy.... and an epic, epic winter for VT.  (here too)

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Loved this one.  Probably one of the first storms I remember truly tracking online using like unisys weather models (or something like that).  Anyone remember that site?  We had 13” in Albany I think.

16” where I was living then 10 miles east of JFK airport. First time I definitely heard thundersnow. Fast switch to mostly rain though on the eastern 1/2 of Long Island. 

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52 minutes ago, radarman said:

Feb 2010 references might summon Logan from the NY wilderness.  He got like 40"+

I got 40 inches that month in NYC 

That retrogading storm was insane to track. The rain snow line cut right through Central LI early on in the storm . The storm looped on top and around of NYC  at night. 14 inches at night with thunder snow was great  

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14 minutes ago, radarman said:

The AVN and the MRF days... JB daily vids and still good crazy.... and an epic, epic winter for VT.  (here too)

Wasn't there one in February 2000 too that just kept tracking westward on the models in the final 48 hours and hit a similar area?  I distinctly remember an event we were going to whiff in ALB and for some reason the memory is very vivid of skiing Whiteface that day and coming home to see the ETA was all the sudden hammering eastern New York and adjacent western New England.  The event I'm thinking of had some insane meso-band from the Berkshires to SE of ALB and into the lower Hudson Valley I think.

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I guess they do... but that pattern can also often be Dusting to inch and have a nice day.  Last night dropped an inch of like snow drizzle, I think that’s the cling.  It was snow but all low level small flakes, a decent amount of them.

I dunno, I definitely didn’t expect this scene on the whole when looking at the pattern for this week.  I think town has continued to out perform the mountain some how too.  That plays into the wow factor.

Temps and moisture are good.  It’s been like 25-27F every day and good inversion with lots of moisture trapped under it.  I think we are getting blocked flow upslope from the Worcester Range on the east side of town... that 3500ft ridge line I think is backing up the flow just enough to keep moisture coming in town, while east slope of Mansfield where the ski area is finds itself blocked out a bit.

That's how I felt in 2015. Each s/w that looked benign dropped 1-3 lol. It is an awesome feeling for sure. Great pics. We jelly.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think feb 25-26, 2010 is a miller B. That was this huge retrojob. The storm center was like down in the Bahamas the day before. :lol:

 

i dunno i wasnt here for that one i just looked at some maps that were available from that time cant believe 2010 was 10  years ago. Still seems recent. I mean it wasn't exactly a miller A then either

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's how I felt in 2015. Each s/w that looked benign dropped 1-3 lol. It is an awesome feeling for sure. Great pics. We jelly.

:lol: Comparing a few over-performing snow shower events up here to Feb 2015 seems like a major party foul.  I get it but that made me chuckle.

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i dunno i wasnt here for that one i just looked at some maps that were available from that time cant believe 2010 was 10  years ago. Still seems recent. I mean it wasn't exactly a miller A then either

I’ve heard some Mets over the years calling those big ocean retrojobs as Miller Cs since they don’t fit the definition of either an A or a B as per Miller’s original 1946 paper. 

It was probably closer to an A though since it’s origins were way down in the subtropics around Florida. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I hate March 2001 with a passion

That was brutal. I’ve had some mind numbing busts in my weenie career. It’s so bad that the wife wants me to get a hotel if another big one comes, I can’t stay home. She can’t deal with my mood swings and the day during the bust... I’m practically uncontrollable. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

March ‘01 might have been the only time I’ll be “disappointed” with like 2 feet of snow. 

It felt like we left about 12-18” on the table in that one. The modeling was so ridiculous. 

Bruce Schwoegler left nothing on the table. Great storm up here. Feb 01 too.

 

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wasn't there one in February 2000 too that just kept tracking westward on the models in the final 48 hours and hit a similar area?  I distinctly remember an event we were going to whiff in ALB and for some reason the memory is very vivid of skiing Whiteface that day and coming home to see the ETA was all the sudden hammering eastern New York and adjacent western New England.  The event I'm thinking of had some insane meso-band from the Berkshires to SE of ALB and into the lower Hudson Valley I think.

 Pretty sure it's 1/30/00.  You were way off ;)

500mb-0600Z-31Jan00.gif

850mb-0600Z-31Jan00.gif

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think I asked you before so refresh my memory. Wtf happened?

Everything phased kind of later and more disjointed than originally modeled. The more disjointed is what cost New England from getting widespread 3+ feet. 

The later and further north phase/development is what screwed further south (like mid-Atlantic) from getting snow at all. 

 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That was brutal. I’ve had some mind numbing busts in my weenie career. It’s so bad that the wife wants me to get a hotel if another big one comes, I can’t stay home. She can’t deal with my mood swings and the day during the bust... I’m practically uncontrollable. 

wait what? Were you in Southbury CT? or NYC?

I mean we were always forcast to get slightly less in extreme southern CT than say the litchfield hills but having a 54hr snow storm with every p-type thats frozen and 12-18" at the end is never brutal imo. I finished with over a foot. Sure 3 feet would be nice but we werent expecting that. I remember the zones were 12-18" for here and thats where we finished.

Heres the map:03_04.01_snow_totals.thumb.jpg.ea0540ca34b08a66d2785b88be3538ea.jpg

This is a funny video referring to that storm as well: 

You can see forecasts for Wills area was 1-3 ft and 20-30" for around Worcester. But southern CT and your area was more like 12-24. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Bruce Schwoegler left nothing on the table. Great storm up here. Feb 01 too.

 

Yeah it was an awesome storm but I let internal expectations get out of hand. Nowadays regardless of what the models show, is never feel screwed by getting 25 inches. 

 I was still pretty new with modeling though being 19 years old at the time. But it was really hard not to believe the 3-4 foot totals....even the old NGM was like 3.3 inches of qpf, lol. It was like pulling teeth to get that model to spit out more than an inch or inch and a quarter in any other big winter storm. 

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