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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still meh on the long range. Might be a window near mid month for 1-2 events to break right...but nothing really imminent or eye opening. Optimistic view is to hope something is timed right,  but reality is to also accept it may stink. Not a fan of the EPS look.

At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

At least with a +NAO we would pop a SE ridge and warm up. This is a cold rain look for SNE. Terrible.

Tough to say with that amount of detail. Overall to me is sort of lousy, but "sort of lousy" looks can sometimes break right. It's basically being on the fence. 

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38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Interesting.  I have not seen a flake or drop here. 

Still some flurries (NWS calling it "inversion" precip). Kind of funny all the focus on that big storm, with zero accumulations here. Then, nothing forecasted, and a couple inches.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The only reports from the 1998 ice storm were west of ORH, Paxton north through Ashby. 

I can confirm major ice at Wachusett in that and my life literally flashing before my eyes as I lost control while skiing. Hit a patch of dirt and lit up the slope in orange from the sparks off  my skis. True story lol. 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can confirm major ice at Wachusett in that and my life literally flashing before my eyes as I lost control while skiing. Hit a patch of dirt and lit up the slope in orange from the sparks off  my skis. True story lol. 

Scooter streak in the ski pants?

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south.

Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

 

Dec8_06zEPS96.png

I'll probably be glazing eyes over with too much verbosity as usual at some point during the next while here.... but in short, that's an ice-storm pattern big time there. 

- the rip/read with pearled troughs enhancing periodic confluence with that N stream confluent into a split rejoin along 40 N Lake/NE axis is basically building/science 101 in how to lay a foundation for ice-storm palaces. 

But, that's the snap shot rip read. It's not taking into consideration how the pattern is or isn't in process of modulating toward some other destination, either... 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There are exceptions...but odds are against it, especially with a moderate to strong peak.

It depends. I'll take a Nina March over a Nino March. March 2008 was golden here with 22" as was March 2001 with 16" and March 2011 with 12". There are exceptions like Morch 2012 or March 2006. 

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Scooter streak in the ski pants?

It was one of the most scariest moments of my life. Right after Sonny Bono and I think one of the Kennedy's went into a tree on skis and died. I honestly was going to fall on purpose to slow me down and risk breaking an arm or leg, so I could slow down. 

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11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

It depends. I'll take a Nina March over a Nino March. March 2008 was golden here with 22" as was March 2001 with 16" and March 2011 with 12". There are exceptions like Morch 2012 or March 2006. 

Well, you live in Toronto.....no fan of winter weather residing in SNE should prefer a la nina March to that of el nino.

I realize that there are exceptions to this.

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