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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We saw this in Dec 2008....here is the 5-6 day forecast for 12/19/08...the last image was how it turned out. Doesn't alays work out like that of course. That was 12 years ago....but even now the models have a lot of toruble in Nina with blocking up near AK

....

 

Great find !    ... I was thinking about that 'front end loader' type pattern and this just nails the example right down - boom... 

In this/that paradigm ( this may end up that way in other words )  the lower heights and/or vortex up there in Canada becomes like an ' inverse block' ?

Basically ( not lecturing you per se - you now this...) we think of blocking as ridge nodes wobbling around along the 70th parallel, directing stuff around them - which ..is a miss-read anyway.. the ridge is there because of the stuff going around that region, not the other way around...  - Anyway, different discussion... 

But in the case of vortexes and depressed heights and suppressed jets, the block is expressed via suppression ...such that deeper mid ranged and/or extended events will have to correct S ...usually they do so by stretching also..such that you can get a pancaked event with a front load IB/WAA snow blitz ... ( love those 5.5 hours traffic snarl grid lock ) ...  or, they shear into pearled lows... And, this whole bag can be icing, too...  It's a way to think of blocking in the other terms/directions.. 

The -AO .. provided a reasonable stable planetary distribution...does support more south position of the N/stream ... 

SO ...the takeaway is that we are discussing what I like to call "correction vectoring"  ...it's exactly what that means in simpler terms - which way is this likely to correct.  Unfortunately for my street cred risks ... in the bun direction.

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Fwiw, and it's not very much, but we could see a lot of snow showers around Wednesday afternoon/evening. That's a decent little shortwave that dives in from the lakes. Prob plenty of upslope posts from powderfreak, alex and phin which should get the juices flowing by the SNE posters.

 

But even down here, there could be some snow showers. There's a little bit of a windexy sounding with TTs approaching 50, but we're lacking LL moisture to really get excited about much else other than flurries with some embedded snow showers mixed in....up in the orographic spots of NNE, it's a different story.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, and it's not very much, but we could see a lot of snow showers around Wednesday afternoon/evening. That's a decent little shortwave that dives in from the lakes. Prob plenty of upslope posts from powderfreak, alex and phin which should get the juices flowing by the SNE posters.

 

But even down here, there could be some snow showers. There's a little bit of a windexy sounding with TTs approaching 50, but we're lacking LL moisture to really get excited about much else other than flurries with some embedded snow showers mixed in....up in the orographic spots of NNE, it's a different story.

I'm sure Steve will be all over it.

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Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there.

 

Dec7_EPS192.png

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there.

 

Dec7_EPS192.png

That is exactly the window that I mentioned to kick things off in the outlook. All you need is the cold in Canada...I would be surprised if at least a couple of them do not work out over the course of the next 2-3 weeks.

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The Clipper for Wednesday looks interesting with the latest two model cycles of runs.  The 18z and 12z runs are showing a more consolidated H5 disturbance, currently over northern Alberta Province, Canada.  It dives southeastward through Lake Ontario and latest trends show the disturbance moving south of NYC and Long Island, and eventually Cape and the Islands.  For a decent event, the region needs development to happen right away and quickly south of Long island and not southeast of ACK!

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That clipper would have some real legs if we didn't have this offshore storm passing us tonight/early tomorrow. Kind of funny, that storm would have probably hit us if it weren't for Satruday's system, and now it's going to cause the clipper potential to be diminished. Wave-spacing 101.

Still, if that vortmax is potent enough, we could see some decent snow showers.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there.

...

I actually outright like that look ... has a bit of a nickel-dime suggestion to it .. 

can envision the steady diet of 2.5 to 3 day advisory packaging ...  

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Here's a whack notion ... 

...that D5/6 Euro solution pancakes and gets a colder solution into NY-CNE ...  

The ejection out the Rockies could be overly amped there? It's a typical albeit nuanced bias of the Euro around that temporal boundary ( that separates the outer near term to the mid range... ) It wouldn't take a hugely flatter solution to limit the erosion ...

Low probability but either way, that trough looks too deep on D5 to me. If it is manufacturing ... it ends up conserved up the St Lawr out in time....

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Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern for late December and first half of January. Low heights in NW Canada into AK but the core of them stay east of the Death Star region so Canada is pretty cold and it oozes into the northern tier. 

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern for late December and first half of January. Low heights in NW Canada into AK but the core of them stay east of the Death Star region so Canada is pretty cold and it oozes into the northern tier. 

is southern Michigan on the good side of the gradient lol?

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55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Larry Cosgrove thinks the pattern flips to cold and snow  by January and continues through March.

 

He likes  1995-1996 and 2007- 2008 analog

wow I haven’t heard his name in a while! I actually had his email newsletter as a teen. I used to love reading it before school. Nostalgic memories for sure... Where does he post these days? 

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