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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Inland runner for 2nd storm near the 5th on all the models

mm..  12z oper. GFS isn't an "inland" solution...   no sense in overstating the matter lol.   I mean there may be some subjective hand throwing but, inland is more definitively west... Like, PA with only paltry commitment toward a 'dent' on a warm front. Now that's inland.. .

This?  this is a coastal low... It's just not ideal... 

We don't have -8 C 850 mb entry temp slabbed down E along the coastal plain while a 974 mb low passes a stones throw east of ISP no.  

Folks need to be "fluid" in their chart interpretations - I suspect there's too much snap shot grousing that happens.   To each is own... sure. But that solution is fine for this range in a rising PNA.

 

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On 11/26/2020 at 10:21 AM, CoastalWx said:

Don't forget, there rarely is such thing as a persistent '14-'15 type pattern. Many times, our pattern are sort of in between good and garbage. The reasons why sometimes these break right (like Dec 07 for instance) is because of some subtle, but notable distinctions in where features like troughs and ridges are placed.

So it doesn't do a lot of good when you see something not 100% perfect and get all bent out of shape. I don't see anything wrong as a whole on the EPS, especially by December standards. Looking forward to a change.

Paging Uncle Leo.

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Edit: I screwed this up - left image is last year.

I don't pay for Weatherbell, but he went colder for New England (and out here actually), with more warmth in the South. Anyone know if he changed analogs? He had like 1973, 1988, 2010, 2010 as the blend for a while, but like +1 warmer than the raw blend of those years.

Weatherbell-Winter-Forecast

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37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I don't pay for Weatherbell, but he went colder for New England (and out here actually), with more warmth in the South. Anyone know if he changed analogs? He had like 1973, 1988, 2010, 2010 as the blend for a while, but like +1 warmer than the raw blend of those years.

Weatherbell-Winter-Forecast

I don’t know how reliable but better than the other way around.  

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Right ... hence the operative "every cycle inches closer" phrase ... hello -

that run sucks by the way - one shouldn't wanna hold that for 32 cycles any more than a steaming pile of feces ... but if you say so :)

Nah, the runs have been - subjectively ... - materializing a cooler profile - as in 'trend' ? - and a deeper system, which frankly is more likely during that limb of the PNA rise than the foreground system ever was...

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I almost feel like DIT... making a comment knowing it just cannot be left alone to simmer out there without a correction :lol:.

The NNE crew is growing, now having regular posters @PhineasC in N.NH snow country and @bwt3650 living at Jay Peak.  At least we'll get more posts during those events now.

Hope we all get to enjoy a good snowstorm in December.  From the ocean to the mountains.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

A big Tip melt that night...lol.  18-20 around Boston with exhaust over Ayer-maybe 6-7 tops?

Ya we were under a blizzard warning for that one.  It wasn’t anything all that impressive here. 10-12 inches with some decent wind(we lost power surprisingly).  But the best by far was well to the southwest down into NYC and N.NJ. They got buried for sure.  And I guess as you say Boston did well.   Then it all melted and washed away with a New Years Eve mild rain.  
 

And just when you thought it was gonna be a pathetic winter...The barrage commenced and January 2011 was Epic!  Roofs Caving in everywhere, and everybody shoveling their roofs off for fear of collapse.  And the roof rake business took off like wildfire.  Ahhh the memories. Lol. 

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