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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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Just now, MikeB_01 said:

I am seeing some flakes too. This seems a little earlier than modeled. I wonder if this is an earlier arrival or a bigger precip field?

Some Models had a finger like feature streaking through western pa but I don't think it was supposed to arrive this early.

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Just now, southpark said:

Some Models had a finger like feature streaking through western pa but I don't think it was supposed to arrive this early.

Yea saw that on the hi-res models earlier today, but definitely not this early. NWS was saying sometime between 12-2 am.

 

I'm hoping this is a good sign?

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Just now, MikeB_01 said:

Yea saw that on the hi-res models earlier today, but definitely not this early. NWS was saying sometime between 12-2 am.

 

I'm hoping this is a good sign?

I hope so.  I have no clue what to make of this system.  Some models have us getting 5 inches while some have us getting 1.5 inches.  It would be nice to get 3 to 4 inches out of it.  Figures, most systems trended northwest the entire winter and when we needed even just a little shift it doesn't look like it is going to materialize.

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11 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

NAM had like 4 or 5 so maybe we get lucky and overperform. Obviously we aren't talking 6+ but 4 or 5 would be a good event. 

I could see 5” or 6” south east of the city. Moisture looks pretty robust and those areas will be in it longer, 

I was half expecting some Virga with this first batch, but sticking efficiently. Could be another little storm where we maximize every flake!

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44 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I am seeing some flakes too. This seems a little earlier than modeled. I wonder if this is an earlier arrival or a bigger precip field?

Yeah I don't think I saw any models snow before midnight at the earliest. Probably doesn't mean much but can't hurt right? I think usually the WAA snow starts faster than modeled most of the time.

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26 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah I don't think I saw any models snow before midnight at the earliest. Probably doesn't mean much but can't hurt right? I think usually the WAA snow starts faster than modeled most of the time.

I have a theory that it’s really undermodeled up the 119 corridor, just west of the ridges. That’s the area that the newer models really show the enhanced  screw zone first when the warm tongue is an issue. 

But it also appears that that area does very well during WWA snows. I could be way off in saying that somehow the positioning relative to the ridges makes that process more efficient - but it sure seems that way.

Exhibit A to that theory is that corridor is getting drilled pretty good right now 

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Radar already starting to fill in again.

I think this has been as advertised so far. This dry slot was showing up on the hres models yesterday, but I just think everything got started a few hours earlier than what was modeled. It started earlier, we dry slotted earlier, and looks like we are filling in earlier.


.

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11 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

When I saw us in that dry slot earlier, it didn't look good for development to me. Precip field was shrinking, not growing. Still doing the same.

Yea, I'll admit i was wrong on this one. I thought the radar started to fill in around 9:00. As quickly as it filled in, it went away.

HRRR still shows redevelopment once the suns goes down. We shall see.

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Well unless the CMC is correct looks like we take a break from tracking for a week. Next week is interesting atleast on the GFS and para. Para has a bowling ball that just goes W to E and destroys Baltimore with 2ft. Its been a fun a year of tracking. I'm used to sitting here and looking at models and just hoping a SSW takes places or modeled blocking actually holds in place. 

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2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Well unless the CMC is correct looks like we take a break from tracking for a week. Next week is interesting atleast on the GFS and para. Para has a bowling ball that just goes W to E and destroys Baltimore with 2ft. Its been a fun a year of tracking. I'm used to sitting here and looking at models and just hoping a SSW takes places or modeled blocking actually holds in place. 

Euro gives us mostly rain, GFS brings a snowstorm of epic proportions through central NC and gives us nothing, and the Para gives the aforementioned blast of snow to MD/VA. In other words, the models have picked up this storm and there’s still a ton of time to either cash in or not.

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Looks like NWS trimmed down any accumulations for tonight too now. Tomorrow still a shot at some snow showers so we will see if anyone gets lucky. 
 

Not worth analyzing anything for next Friday imho other than just quick glance to see if it’s still somewhere on the map for the next couple days. Monday looks like rain /snow mix at best right now unless all your eggs are in the CMC basket.

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