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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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35 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I can't figure out the NAM.  The sounding profile says sleet, but the surface reflection shows plain rain.  Possible it doesn't matter if it's overamped - although the only meso I can see with an all snow event is the WRF-NMM.

Nowcast / obs from around our area should be fun, someone in western Allegheny might be ripping sleet or snow while its raining in Monroeville. (Sorry Meatwad :lol:

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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A prolonged period of wintry impacts is expected Monday into Tuesday
as a series of shortwaves within southwest flow move across the Upper
Ohio River Valley. The first, weaker wave will see spread mainly snow
over the area Monday morning, with precipitation enhancements north 
and west of Pittsburgh due to a strengthening upper jet and strong 
frontogenesis stretching from SW to NE OH. Slight warm advection will
create more of a wintry mix generally southeast of Pittsburgh. 

After a very brief break late Monday aftn due to shortwave ridging,
the second and more potent shortwave will cross the region Monday
night into Tuesday. Model trends have brought the upper trough and
850mb low farther west, allowing for better warm air intrusion to the
southeast of the low. If this holds, snow will be the predominant
precipitation type along the I-80 corridor and east of I-77,
transitioning to a combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain along the I-70
corridor (including Pittsburgh) and sleet/freezing rain/rain for
northeast WV. Any shift in the 850mb low track west (east) will draw
that change over line farther northwest (southeast).  

The combination of a strong, coupled jet, strong mid-level
frontogenesis, and varying but cold enough thermal profiles, have
issued a Winter Storm Warning. The warm air intrusion will likely
limit snow/ice accumulation for portions of northeast WV, thus a
Winter Weather Advisory was issued.

Precipitation will generally dissipate through the day Tuesday as the
low and sfc cold front move east of the region and a notable dry slot
develops within the wake of the exiting shortwave. Cold advection
will ensue as the longwave trough axis moves overnight Tuesday night,
dropping area temperature well below seasonal averages.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A prolonged period of wintry impacts is expected Monday into Tuesdayas a series of shortwaves within southwest flow move across the UpperOhio River Valley. The first, weaker wave will see spread mainly snowover the area Monday morning, with precipitation enhancements north and west of Pittsburgh due to a strengthening upper jet and strong frontogenesis stretching from SW to NE OH. Slight warm advection willcreate more of a wintry mix generally southeast of Pittsburgh. After a very brief break late Monday aftn due to shortwave ridging,the second and more potent shortwave will cross the region Mondaynight into Tuesday. Model trends have brought the upper trough and850mb low farther west, allowing for better warm air intrusion to thesoutheast of the low. If this holds, snow will be the predominantprecipitation type along the I-80 corridor and east of I-77,transitioning to a combo of snow/sleet/freezing rain along the I-70corridor (including Pittsburgh) and sleet/freezing rain/rain fornortheast WV. Any shift in the 850mb low track west (east) will drawthat change over line farther northwest (southeast).  The combination of a strong, coupled jet, strong mid-levelfrontogenesis, and varying but cold enough thermal profiles, haveissued a Winter Storm Warning. The warm air intrusion will likelylimit snow/ice accumulation for portions of northeast WV, thus aWinter Weather Advisory was issued.Precipitation will generally dissipate through the day Tuesday as thelow and sfc cold front move east of the region and a notable dry slotdevelops within the wake of the exiting shortwave. Cold advectionwill ensue as the longwave trough axis moves overnight Tuesday night,dropping area temperature well below seasonal averages.


Honestly it sounds like they think anything can happen too. Maybe I’ve got my snow goggles on, but I’m feeling positive. I want to smell the sleet but never transition over to it. I’m pumped for the next 48 hours. LFG


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Just now, MikeB_01 said:


Honestly it sounds like they think anything can happen too. Maybe I’ve got my snow goggles on, but I’m feeling positive. I want to smell the sleet but never transition over to it. I’m pumped for the next 48 hours. LFG


.

Calm yourself, Jim Cantore.  LOL.  Just kidding. :lol: Gonna be interesting to see what happens for sure.

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23 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:


Honestly it sounds like they think anything can happen too. Maybe I’ve got my snow goggles on, but I’m feeling positive. I want to smell the sleet but never transition over to it. I’m pumped for the next 48 hours. LFG


.

Call it luck but we certainly have seen the benefits of the last minute track changes this season.  

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4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same.

It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it.

Ehh it is Climo here. These events we always see an adjustment northwest as we approach the events. I know I can remember events where we went from 10 degrees to over 40 in a 24 hour span. 
 

This still looks like a major winter event though, just not likely to see much snow. 

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Ehh it is Climo here. These events we always see an adjustment northwest as we approach the events. I know I can remember events where we went from 10 degrees to over 40 in a 24 hour span. 
 

This still looks like a major winter event though, just not likely to see much snow. 

The Thursday system still looks better for snow. GFS wants to give us 5” and half an inch of ice still and drag the low right across our area. I’ll believe it when I see it.

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28 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah won't make any friends here, looks like it brings the low further north... See if the Euro does the same.

It's almost agonizing seeing that bitter cold air so close and not being able to tap into it.

With 50" in the books, I can almost laugh at the latest GFS snow totals.

MAG over in Central PA mentioned this is more of a baroclinic track, were the system doesn't create it's own cold air. 

So what ever sets up in the beginning, is what the majority of the storm will produce.

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29 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Ehh it is Climo here. These events we always see an adjustment northwest as we approach the events. I know I can remember events where we went from 10 degrees to over 40 in a 24 hour span. 
 

This still looks like a major winter event though, just not likely to see much snow. 

Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then,  probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older.

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2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yep, I remember multiple times as a kid watching 6pm news for weather ( I used to time them so I could catch all 3 stations, 2,4,11) with a storm projected to be all snow only to hear the pinging on my bedroom window and that feeling knowing warm air was winning. I didn't understand any of the causes then,  probably why I was so interested to learn more about the science as I got older.

Lol I did the same thing with the news.

I do seem to remember more storms with solid front end thumps of at least 2-4 inches. Mainly now we seem to be going to straight ice immediately. 

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2 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

With 50" in the books, I can almost laugh at the latest GFS snow totals.

MAG over in Central PA mentioned this is more of a baroclinic track, were the system doesn't create it's own cold air. 

So what ever sets up in the beginning, is what the majority of the storm will produce.

Keyword, almost.;) I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls.

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5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Keyword, almost.;) I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls.

Yep I’ve said it multiple times...if December didn’t happen, especially the mid December storm this would be incredibly frustrating. 
 

I still don’t understand why it is so damn impossible to get an apps runner ad why we are always living right on a cutoff.

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5 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Keyword, almost.;) I agree though it's not like we were counting on this storm to save winter season snow totals and it fell apart at the end. The big December and ability to telework when roads are bad has made this one of the more enjoyable winters for me to track storms and be happy with whatever falls whenever it falls.

Well said. Maybe these models will beat us down so bad that the storm will over perform at some point. 

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53 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yep I’ve said it multiple times...if December didn’t happen, especially the mid December storm this would be incredibly frustrating. 
 

I still don’t understand why it is so damn impossible to get an apps runner ad why we are always living right on a cutoff.

I know why can't there be a 1950 or 1993 redo?  Never saw a storm like those, so I'd like to experience it.

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