Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


north pgh
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, north pgh said:

We are the lucky ones this time. 95% of the country would love to be in our spot on Christmas Eve. 

This 100%. Baring a total failure in models we should all at a minimum have a fresh 2 inches on the ground for Christmas day as well as flakes in the air and cold temperatures throughout. Hallmark movie scenery should be had by all.

I do think areas east of the city but outside the ridges will be on the lower end which includes my yard. Further West you go from the city towards Ohio stand a better chance to bust high but models will struggle nailing down a 25 mile shift one way or the other.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Is it tracking with the models?

 

Also, what are the chances of lake effect throughout the day tomorrow?  Erie and those areas will be getting heavy lake effect snow, is it possible to see that make it down here, or will the wind not be favorable?  I know it seems lake effect is kind of hard to forecast here, so hopefully we can benefit a little.

Not a great setup for LES in our area, the flow tomorrow will turn more WSW which should cut off lake moisture for us.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

Hate to see it. We probably will still atleast get a few inches but the higher amounts look very unlikely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Mailman said:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

Just give me 3" and I'll be happy. No Grinch dry slot should be able to stop that I hope. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Mailman said:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The leading edge of shallow cold air at 2200UTC is straddling the
forecast area, stretched from near Marienville PA to near Pittsburgh
to near Fairmont WV. Atop this shallow layer remains a relatively
warm tongue of air, leading to a PTYPE transition across wrn PA/ern
OH and the nrn WV panhandle. Farther west near ZZV, cold air has
successfully eroded the warm tongue, leading to a region of all snow
from near PHD to ZZV.

Prior forecast (see below) identified a focused region of ern OH 
where conditions will be favorable for considerable snowfall rates 
this evening as still colder air invades and lift/saturation are 
maximized through the dendritic growth zone. This region still seems 
to be where the highest totals are likely. Headlines were continued, 
but upgraded for a few counties adjacent to the ongoing warning in 
line with the latest information available.

The latest expectation is that snow rates in ern OH could potentially
reach 1-2" per hour for a window this evening. By 0600UTC, a dry 
slot will erode moisture aloft, which should bring an end to 
widespread threat of heavy snow. This dry slot brings some concern 
about snow amounts for wrn PA, where a late transition to snow (as 
most models suggest) may preclude totals quite as high as previously 
forecasted. Dry, fluffy snow likely will continue past 0600UTC, but 
fall rates will be limited. The ridges, however, will remain at a
temperature favorable for highly efficient snow ratios, and still
could see notable totals by mid-day tomorrow. 

Sucks.  Looks like the screw job may happen.  Figures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...