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John1122

December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

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6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

hich model has that modeled the best?

Good question, but I'm not sure how I could figure that out. I think it would have to be a mesoscale model. 

I'm looking at the RGEM and NAM and WRF on TT, but having trouble seeing it in enough detail on the simulated satellite. 

Here are the gifs with a fresh satellite. See what you think:

3km NAM:

giphy.gif

 

RGEM:

giphy.gif

 

WRF:

giphy.gif

 

Maybe there is a better parameter to figure out where the front is now? I'm not sure those cloud depictions are all that helpful since they seem pretty course.

Current satellite (sandwich depiction with visible and IR)

 

giphy.gif 

 

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Maybe I answered my own question lol.
Interesting to look at 10m wind on the same three mesoscale models:

Nam 3k:

giphy.gif

 

WRF:

giphy.gif

 

RGEM:

giphy.gif

 

It does seem like there is a correlation between how far south the front makes it and how eastward the SLP moves. The WRF-ARW gets it a little further south and has the most easterly of tracks:

 

giphy.gif

It also gives a little more umphh to a surface low off the GA coast which tugs on the Gulf low a bit. Could be a question of how the convection impacts the SLP formation? 

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At 42 the 12z CMC is south and east of its 0z run and slight weaker.  Last comment on that model so as not to gum up the thread...trend south and east with it as well. 

I must be missing something... you don’t seem to like further SE with the system but I thought we were tracking an Apps runner? Wouldn’t SE trends be good? Wouldn’t a later phase allow more cold into ETn?


.

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8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here is where it looks like the front is on the latest SPC mesoscale analysis's windbarbs: 

573qnbI.png

Looks to me like that from is far enough south that it is causing a later phase.  I always hold out hope(no matter how unfounded!) that he slp gets further east and pulls due north.  Those traditionally are pretty good storms.  Also of note, many of the models are popping a low now over Delmarva pretty consistently which is a pretty good sign of a strong storm.

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Just now, PowellVolz said:


I must be missing something... you don’t seem to like further SE with the system but I thought we were tracking an Apps runner? Wouldn’t SE trends be good? Wouldn’t a later phase allow more cold into ETn?


.

Definitely like it!

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I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but perhaps some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

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4 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but it'll be interesting to see if some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

Agree.  Storms like this wobble quite (with each run) a bit due to the phase being tough to model (timing and placement).  The envelope right now, though trending slightly eastward, doesn't leave middle TN out of the game at all.  I do think places like Monterey might be sitting pretty nice.  For MBY, definitely hoping for an eastward jog...for yours I will be happy to see it jog back west.  Hoping we can get accumulating snow in the forum area to start the season. 

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10 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but perhaps some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

Middle Tennessee has looked better than most areas of the state that aren't mountainous throughout. You don't have to deal with any downsloping really like the eastern valley areas.

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9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Ukie might be a good test for the front theory. Looks like it is already pressing it further south on this run compared to 0z. Only out to 12 hours for now. 

The UKMET at meteocentre looks slightly east.  Biggest thing I notice is that the slp along the GOM is east on many of the models in the 12z suite.  Some go the Miller A route while some lift due north.  UKMET looks like it sent party of its low east of the Apps before heading straight to TRI form east central Alabama.  Wrap around is wicked with the UKMET.

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, I'm only out to 30 hours or so, and it is definitely SE some. Will post the gif when it finishes on F5 weather. 

Check out meteocentre.  Not as good as yours, but gives you a heads-up.  Will be interested to see the smaller time increments on the gif.   

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3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Check out the streamer off of Lake Michigan on the UKMET, aimed right at Frozen Head

 

I got under one of those one night and got 6 inches of snow in 3 hours with a temp in the lower 20s.

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38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Hour 192 snow accumulations on the CMC at Tropical Tidbits.  This is from TWO systems...

1091125202_ScreenShot2020-11-28at12_04_24PM.png.ecfd129454d16b1d92c1f736ae628f03.png

 This is the one we're rooting for Carvers. CMC actually did better here the last couple seasons than the others a few times.

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1 hour ago, Blue Moon said:

I'm still thinking Middle Tennessee, namely the areas not on the Plateau, is not out of the game. Perhaps all Nashville will see is some bands of snow showers without any accumulation, due to its elevation and the UHI effect, but perhaps some spots along the Highland Rim can pick up some minor snowfall.

The latest nam12k run seems to suggest up here on the highland rim we could see some accumulating snow. Although some of the heaviest bands seem to be when temps are still above freezing. I always wonder if it’s still possible to get a surprise snow like the 2003 storm that dropped 7 inches on Nashville? I know the models are much better now so maybe not. I was not living here until 2006 but have never had a huge over achiever like the 2003 storm. It seems like overachievers are more likely in the elevated areas of eastern Tennessee.

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