December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

[tnweathernut]

I feel VERY good about where we are heading into January.  Having a -NAO during a prime winter month is a rarity.  Just a PAC jet extension or two away from fun and games at that point.

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I feel VERY good about where we are heading into January.  Having a -NAO during a prime winter month is a rarity.  Just a PAC jet extension or two away from fun and games at that point.

It has been so long since we have had a -NAO (strength, duration), almost tough to remember.  LOL!

[Windspeed]

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Good find.  Told tnweathernut he brought some good mojo this morning!  LOL.  If we can get any kind of ridge to pop out West, we are in business.  I am not a huge fan of the 12z GEPS run, but it may just be noise at that range.  

[Carvers Gap]

Not saying this is going to happen, bu the GEFS extended which comes out each evening was really a great looking pattern for much of its run.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

C'mon blocking, help us out:

 

 

That's the spirit!

[Carvers Gap]

Long range discussion...but the Euro at 228 says, "Hello."  @AMZ8990....waay out there, but that is two straight runs.

[Carvers Gap]

And 240....yup.  Let's reel one in from ten days out.  LOL.

[John1122]

Holy mother....probably mixed or sleet south of 40 on the Euro, but lordy. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Lots of blues, light blues, and dark blues on that Kuchera.  That is a run for the ages right there.  LOL Wow!!!!

[AMZ8990]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And 240....yup.  Let's reel one in from ten days out.  LOL.

At least it’s the Euro showing it, that’s a plus I reckon.   Lots of snow statewide on that run!

[Carvers Gap]

What is crazy about that map, it is not even close to being done...not even close in NE TN.

[PowellVolz]

What is crazy about that map, it is not even close to being done...not even close in NE TN.

You find that more crazy than 25” across Knoxville?


.

[Stovepipe]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Holy mother....probably mixed or sleet south of 40 on the Euro, but lordy. 

 

WEENIE RUN!

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

WEENIE RUN!

No kidding.  12 hours straight of heavy snow for TYS.  LOL...and not even close to being over. One of those times one would like to see past 240.  

[PowellVolz]

Holy mother....probably mixed or sleet south of 40 on the Euro, but lordy. 
 

.

[AMZ8990]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

No kidding.  12 hours straight of heavy snow for TYS.  LOL...and not even close to being over. One of those times one would like to see past 240.  

I think that similar scenario was on the GFS a day or two ago, definitely some hints of something big In that time frame from the models.  I got some serious thunder and lighting last night so I’m cautiously optimistic about the next 10-15 day time frame.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

You find that more crazy than 25” across Knoxville?


.

LOL.  Knoxville is only about 2/3 of the way done with that storm.   You all might have cracked 3'.

[John1122]

It's only below freezing on the Plateau and NE of Morristown that run.  Knoxville gets 20 inches of snow in 18 hours at 33. There wouldn't be a standing powerline in the entire valley from Morristown to Lawrenceburg. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, John1122 said:

It's only below freezing on the Plateau and NE of Morristown that run.  Knoxville gets 20 inches of snow in 18 hours at 33. There wouldn't be a standing powerline in the entire valley from Morristown to Lawrenceburg. 

LOL.  2021 saying, "Hold my beer."  

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Knoxville is only about 2/3 of the way done with that storm.   You all might have cracked 3'.

If it went north after 240 all of East Tennessee and East Kentucky probably gets 10 more inches.  

[Carvers Gap]

Knoxville, TN, has scored twice during December.  You all are racking up down there!

[PowellVolz]

Knoxville, TN, has scored twice during December.  You all are racking up down there!

We had a 2” snow last year also.


.

[Save the itchy algae!]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

We had a 2” snow last year also.


.

Yeah that was the biggest head fake of the winter last year, it was early and made it seem like we were destined for a good season.

 This season clearly feels different.  

[weathertree4u]

Glad some in the forum area were able to score, not seeing allot in the long range that would indicate the pattern we need. Could be wrong, hoping so!

[Carvers Gap]

Next two posts related to day 10+...

Not great trends for sure overnight with two global ensembles.  Guessing(haven’t looked) that the MJO is unfavorable. 6z GEFS and 0z GEPS have a less than ideal NAO setup which can happen.  Not sure that holds but is something you might see sometimes during summer where the NAO connect to an eastern ridge.  The 0z EPS is actually a very good setup.  The good thing about the EPS is that this is the time of year where it is much more dependable in the LR.   With the strat getting hammered...models are going to be all over the place.  I do think I we may see a time of ridging  just after the New Year maybe around the end of week 1 and into week 2 - but that is not a given.  Nina winters tend to have very warm spells at times.  But I wouldn’t sweat it at this range...models have been predicting warmups for about a month and hasn’t occurred yet.  That NAO is likely going to win a lot of battles if it holds...Will check the MJO later.  It has been trending poorly for a few days and will battle a favorable Atlantic.

[Carvers Gap]

Re: d10+

Yeah, the MJO is being handled quite differently by the Euro vs American suite....That said, there is a trend to take the MJO in phases 3 and/or 4 - that is a change.  The amplitude in which that might happen is the question.  That means the Pacific would revert to trying to force a trough into the West.  The strongly negative NAO would  counterbalance that.  Modeling handles those dualing signals differently.  The 6z GEFS is connecting the NAO to an eastern ridge.  The EPS undercuts the NAO and allows a trough in the West but also allows the storm track to stay further south east of the Mississippi.  We definitely need to be pulling for the EPS.  Thing is, the EPS was flirting with the GEFS scenario a few days ago.  It would not surprise me to see a trough in the West as Nina winters do favor that.  The real question is whether that trough buries itself deep into the West of centers itself further north and has a NW to SE orientation.   Lots of questions and very low confidence after the New Year.    Again again, modeling has been wrong about the eastern ridge for nearly this entire month....nothing is set in stone right now.  With this strat warm stuff...modeling may be haywire for some time.

[Carvers Gap]

For now, I lean 0z EPS on its depiction or maybe the 0z GEPS.  

[Carvers Gap]

Further on d10+..

The 0z EPS allows a -EPO (not strong but there) to pop.  That fits with it flirting with phases 3-4 of the MJO but going back into the COD where it is now.  The GEFSBC takes the MJO into 3 and 4 at low amplitude.  Now the GEFS, EMON, and ECMWF don't go there while the EMOM does.  The IO firing is likely causing this.  Question is, does it propagate in 5-6 or goes into COD/goes quiet.   Throw in an SSW along with a wicked strong -NAO and not a ton of analogs which match this setup (warm NE PAC to start winter...think I had been saying incorrectly NW PAC - sorry)...and one gets pretty crazy looking ensembles.  Lots going on which might lead me to think a single pattern may not lock-in for January.

 

Merry Christmas, everyone!  

[AMZ8990]

55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Further on d10+..

The 0z EPS allows a -EPO (not strong but there) to pop.  That fits with it flirting with phases 3-4 of the MJO but going back into the COD where it is now.  The GEFSBC takes the MJO into 3 and 4 at low amplitude.  Now the GEFS, EMON, and ECMWF don't go there while the EMOM does.  The IO firing is likely causing this.  Question is, does it propagate in 5-6 or goes into COD/goes quiet.   Throw in an SSW along with a wicked strong -NAO and not a ton of analogs which match this setup (warm NE PAC to start winter...think I had been saying incorrectly NW PAC - sorry)...and one gets pretty crazy looking ensembles.  Lots going on which might lead me to think a single pattern may not lock-in for January.

 

Merry Christmas, everyone!  

Great stuff as always.  Thanks for explaining.