December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I’d rather see that than a big fat SER being shown for weeks because we all know the mods are probably not going to be wrong showing a strong SER.


.

LOL.  For sure...Basically just wanting folks to understand that we are about to enter a time where confidence is very low.  

[Wurbus]

21 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Looks like CMC holds the energy back a little bit and it winds up phasing a little later. Not as big as a hit for mid/west TN as the last run. Looks like East TN gets some wrap around snow as the low travels up through East TN again.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

UKMET is coming in deeper with the energy than its 0z run, as it crosses the Rockies. It only goes out to 144, but will the Euro do the same? 

Ukie 0z:

 

Ukie 12z:

 

Here's the 12z CMC for comparison:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro OP is now the least amplified with the energy, but only the CMC brings that extra bit onshore with the rest of it. That seems to be the difference between a FROPA with maybe some Anafrontal precip or a bigger storm for some one east of the Mississippi. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro :

 

CMC:

 

That's the difference between the two. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But wait, we have the KMA on our side too, looking good. What could go wrong?

[Carvers Gap]

39 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

But wait, we have the KMA on our side too, looking good. What could go wrong?

KMA is a great weather model name.  Dr No and then...KMA!!!...if you catch my drift.  LOL.

[Wurbus]

I haven't looked at the JMA model much (honestly don't know what it is usually used for), but this is what it has at 192. Looks pretty good for us to my untrained eye.

 

[PowellVolz]

I haven't looked at the JMA model much (honestly don't know what it is usually used for), but this is what it has at 192. Looks pretty good for us to my untrained eye.
 

Could use that high pressure to slide 500 miles to the east.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

(Said in my best Tiny Tim voice)

It's a Christmas Clipper!!!  A happy hour miracle!!!

 

[John1122]

GFS says Merry Christmas Mid-Valley. 

 

[Runman292]

26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS says Merry Christmas Mid-Valley. 

 

The infamous Knoxville snow hole, lol.

[John1122]

Canadian was a mixed bag, has .10 to .15 ice accumulation over the mid-state and with a couple of inches of snow in the Eastern half of the valley. The ice in NE valley areas actually comes before the mid state ice. 

 

[John1122]

GEFS had some real block busters. The highest mean of the young winter season that I've seen so far. 

[Wurbus]

Euro has the low developing along the front. It develops a little late for mid-TN, but East TN gets a little something at the end.

[John1122]

06z GFS looks good for all but the West valley with two rounds of snow. This is where we end up with the Christmas eve thumping plus the Christmas eve night clipper. 

 

 

 

[weathertree4u]

7 minutes ago, John1122 said:

06z GFS looks good for all but the West valley with two rounds of snow. This is where we end up with the Christmas eve thumping plus the Christmas night clipper. 

 

 

 

American modeling is the last to the party but hopefully this will come into clearer focus over the weekend. As a kid I can recall several times where arctic boundaries really over performed in snowfall!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not much to add other than a tour de ensembles:

The old 6z GEFS members were slinging Christmas presents:

 

The new GEFS had some presents too, but not as many:

 

EPS were looking better than they had in a few days:

 

One thing that I found interesting was that the Euro Control was much more excited about the window:

I included EPS member 42 on that gif too, since it was pretty enthusiastic for many in our forum. Some of you have mentioned that Euro seems like it overamps systems at this range, at least this season. If that's the case, given that the control is a lower resolution run, that it is a snowier run is notable?  

I think that's Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #34, right?

 

I know y'all mentioned the CMC above, but since I've been posting on how it handles the energy, I did also want to mention that it has come around to the Euro and GFS in how it handles it. 

But wait, the NAM at hour 84, keeps that energy more consolidated further east??!!  

[tnweathernut]

59 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not much to add other than a tour de ensembles:

I think that's Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #34, right?

Yeah, that one is just ahead of Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #35.  This one says to cut accumulations in half and then divide by 0.  The last part of this rule gets us almost every time....   

On topic....   glad to see the major globals all spitting the chance for at least some snow in the air and what looks like a lock for a cold Christmas.  Snow or no, it should at least feel Christmasy.

[jaxjagman]

Nothing that hasn't been talked about here

National Weather Service Nashville TN
514 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Not bad weather expected today for mid December behind yesterdays
passing upper trough. Upper ridge and SFC high will set up today
allowing temps to recover into the mid and upper 40s most places.
Plateau likely to hit the lower 40s.

This ridge and SFC high will break down late tonight, and a upper
trough will move into the MS river valley late Saturday. Moisture
advection will begin early in the day and with vertical motion
strengthening throughout the day, showers likely to breakout by
midday west, then expand in coverage throughout the afternoon,
and especially into the evening as the upper trough passes. At
low-levels, we do not get really get a passing front/airmass
change, thus temps will continue to moderate Saturday, and on Sun
as well as pcpn moves out.

The first part of next week will see temps above normal, as an upper
ridge passes, and eventually weakens early Wednesday as our next
system approaches. This system more potent than our Saturday system
and is expected to bring more widespread rain to the mid-state
Wednesday, and more so Wednesday night as a cold front/deep
moisture axis passes. This system also packing some very cold air,
of which we will likely see either mixed pcpn or all snow before
ending Thursday in many areas. This system also bringing a
secondary deep upper trough axis over the region on Friday, and
while moisture will be limited, some flurries/light snow showers
not out of the question.

[snowbird1230]

Incoming HAMMER on GFS.

Boom!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's Friday, so happy hour is at noon(note we will pay for it on the 18 z run): 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

My only worry(for E TN folks) is a progressive model has us in the bullseye.  The ICON is the other side of the envelope.   GFS would be a 100K view thread.  

[Carvers Gap]

The  overnight lows with snow on the ground and that air mass might get some of us below zero.  Wind chills would be straight nasty.  GFS depicts that scenario pretty well.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The good news is, now that we are in a bulls eye a week out, we CAN trend to severe! It's not

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

CMC looks like it will be a middle ground between the ICON and GFS, probably better for central and western areas.

[jaxjagman]

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z DEC18   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
FRI 12Z 18-DEC  -2.9    -1.9     129       0    02003                   0.00    
FRI 18Z 18-DEC   6.6     1.0     131   10250    02004           0.00    0.00    
SAT 00Z 19-DEC   0.9     3.4     131   10309    04003           0.00    0.00    
SAT 06Z 19-DEC  -0.6     3.8     131   10176    10001           0.00    0.00    
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  -1.2     2.7     131    9386    16002           0.00    0.00    
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   8.5     3.3     132    8834    17007           0.00    0.00    
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   4.0     3.3     132    7957    16003           0.00    0.00    
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   3.6    -1.7     131    4022    16003           0.03    0.00    
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   3.8     2.8     132    6607    17002     RA    0.06    0.00    
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   6.9     2.6     133    6694    17003           0.08    0.00    
MON 00Z 21-DEC   6.9     0.9     133    5159    18001           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 21-DEC   4.1     0.9     132    5363    26002           0.01    0.00    
MON 12Z 21-DEC   4.3     1.0     131    5951    23003           0.00    0.00    
MON 18Z 21-DEC   8.6     2.7     132    6738    24007           0.00    0.00    
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   6.3     0.5     133    5341    27006           0.00    0.00    
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   4.0    -0.3     132    4663    27005           0.00    0.00    
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   0.6    -0.3     130    9494    33003           0.00    0.00    
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   8.3     2.5     131   11103    35004           0.00    0.00    
WED 00Z 23-DEC   3.5     6.8     132   10954    10002           0.00    0.00    
WED 06Z 23-DEC   1.4     9.4     133   10672    16002           0.00    0.00    
WED 12Z 23-DEC   1.4     6.4     132   10389    17005           0.00    0.00    
WED 18Z 23-DEC   9.6     4.3     132    9111    18009           0.00    0.00    
THU 00Z 24-DEC   7.2     4.2     133    7885    16008           0.00    0.00    
THU 06Z 24-DEC   6.2     1.9     132    6131    29003     RA    0.54    0.00    
THU 12Z 24-DEC  -1.6    -7.1     128     176    35006     SN    0.69    0.43    
THU 18Z 24-DEC   0.6   -10.2     128    1124    30011     SN    0.03    0.51    
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  -5.6   -13.4     126       0    30007           0.01    0.49    
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  -9.9   -16.1     124       0    28004           0.00    0.54    
FRI 12Z 25-DEC -11.6   -15.3     124       0    27004           0.00    0.54    

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.0 -1.8 129 19 16003 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 6.1 -0.2 130 9572 16003 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 2.4 2.1 132 9583 14004 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC 1.0 2.3 132 8858 17005 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC 0.8 2.6 132 7793 17007 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.9 3.5 132 7298 19010 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 6.0 3.4 132 7392 18007 RA 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 5.7 1.1 132 6033 17009 0.13 0.00 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 5.8 1.3 132 5492 18005 RA 0.17 0.00 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 9.2 1.2 132 5401 26004 RA 0.01 0.00 MON 00Z 21-DEC 6.0 1.3 132 5378 24002 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 21-DEC 3.8 0.9 132 5166 23004 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 21-DEC 2.6 1.3 132 5552 23005 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 21-DEC 10.2 3.5 133 6404 25013 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.4 0.3 133 4858 24008 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 4.5 -3.4 131 3325 29007 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 1.5 -0.2 130 9956 31005 0.00 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 7.8 3.1 131 10510 02001 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 23-DEC 4.2 7.7 133 10484 15004 0.00 0.00 WED 06Z 23-DEC 3.4 8.8 134 10559 18007 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 23-DEC 4.7 8.2 133 9466 18011 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.8 4.4 133 7882 19016 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.7 2.2 133 6420 22009 RA 0.14 0.00 THU 06Z 24-DEC -0.7 -8.3 128 291 35009 SN 0.50 0.27 THU 12Z 24-DEC -3.8 -9.4 128 0 30003 0.01 0.34 THU 18Z 24-DEC -1.0 -13.2 127 221 29012 0.00 0.31 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -5.5 -15.8 125 0 30008 0.01 0.32 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -8.7 -16.6 124 0 29006 0.00 0.32 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -10.1 -16.0 123 0 28006 0.00 0.30   GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.6 -4.0 128 211 03002 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 4.7 -1.1 130 4510 05003 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 1.4 1.3 131 10188 07002 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC 0.5 3.0 131 9367 11001 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC -0.2 2.1 131 8675 15002 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.2 2.5 132 8381 23003 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 4.1 3.0 132 7730 16002 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 3.3 -2.0 131 3538 20004 RA 0.01 0.01 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 3.2 1.2 132 5703 10003 RA 0.05 0.03 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 5.0 2.4 132 6242 21001 RA 0.05 0.03 MON 00Z 21-DEC 5.0 1.3 132 5511 19001 RA 0.01 0.03 MON 06Z 21-DEC 4.7 -0.1 132 4671 26003 0.01 0.03 MON 12Z 21-DEC 4.4 -0.2 131 4335 24005 0.00 0.03 MON 18Z 21-DEC 7.5 0.3 132 5400 24009 0.00 0.03 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.0 -1.1 132 4265 26008 0.00 0.03 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 3.6 -1.5 131 3866 25007 0.00 0.03 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 0.8 -4.3 130 2072 24003 0.00 0.03 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 7.4 -0.6 131 10304 34001 0.00 0.03 WED 00Z 23-DEC 3.4 3.7 131 10747 08002 0.00 0.03 WED 06Z 23-DEC 1.6 8.5 132 10674 11002 0.00 0.03 WED 12Z 23-DEC 0.8 6.4 132 10481 16002 0.00 0.03 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.5 4.7 133 9662 21003 0.00 0.01 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.0 4.3 133 7775 17003 0.00 0.01 THU 06Z 24-DEC 5.2 2.6 132 6376 06002 RA 0.18 0.03 THU 12Z 24-DEC -1.4 -6.5 128 632 32004 SN 0.85 0.24 THU 18Z 24-DEC -1.9 -11.4 127 392 30003 SN 0.27 0.67 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -6.7 -13.7 126 0 29008 0.03 0.69 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -11.6 -17.6 124 0 25005 0.00 0.70 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -13.9 -19.5 123 0 23005 0.00 0.70 I just jinxed everyone..lol

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Dang, even Chatt gets ~ .70 frozen! 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            12Z DEC18   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
FRI 12Z 18-DEC  -2.9    -1.9     129       0    02003                   0.00    
FRI 18Z 18-DEC   6.6     1.0     131   10250    02004           0.00    0.00    
SAT 00Z 19-DEC   0.9     3.4     131   10309    04003           0.00    0.00    
SAT 06Z 19-DEC  -0.6     3.8     131   10176    10001           0.00    0.00    
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  -1.2     2.7     131    9386    16002           0.00    0.00    
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   8.5     3.3     132    8834    17007           0.00    0.00    
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   4.0     3.3     132    7957    16003           0.00    0.00    
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   3.6    -1.7     131    4022    16003           0.03    0.00    
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   3.8     2.8     132    6607    17002     RA    0.06    0.00    
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   6.9     2.6     133    6694    17003           0.08    0.00    
MON 00Z 21-DEC   6.9     0.9     133    5159    18001           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 21-DEC   4.1     0.9     132    5363    26002           0.01    0.00    
MON 12Z 21-DEC   4.3     1.0     131    5951    23003           0.00    0.00    
MON 18Z 21-DEC   8.6     2.7     132    6738    24007           0.00    0.00    
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   6.3     0.5     133    5341    27006           0.00    0.00    
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   4.0    -0.3     132    4663    27005           0.00    0.00    
TUE 12Z 22-DEC   0.6    -0.3     130    9494    33003           0.00    0.00    
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   8.3     2.5     131   11103    35004           0.00    0.00    
WED 00Z 23-DEC   3.5     6.8     132   10954    10002           0.00    0.00    
WED 06Z 23-DEC   1.4     9.4     133   10672    16002           0.00    0.00    
WED 12Z 23-DEC   1.4     6.4     132   10389    17005           0.00    0.00    
WED 18Z 23-DEC   9.6     4.3     132    9111    18009           0.00    0.00    
THU 00Z 24-DEC   7.2     4.2     133    7885    16008           0.00    0.00    
THU 06Z 24-DEC   6.2     1.9     132    6131    29003     RA    0.54    0.00    
THU 12Z 24-DEC  -1.6    -7.1     128     176    35006     SN    0.69    0.43    
THU 18Z 24-DEC   0.6   -10.2     128    1124    30011     SN    0.03    0.51    
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  -5.6   -13.4     126       0    30007           0.01    0.49    
FRI 06Z 25-DEC  -9.9   -16.1     124       0    28004           0.00    0.54    
FRI 12Z 25-DEC -11.6   -15.3     124       0    27004           0.00    0.54    

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.0 -1.8 129 19 16003 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 6.1 -0.2 130 9572 16003 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 2.4 2.1 132 9583 14004 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC 1.0 2.3 132 8858 17005 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC 0.8 2.6 132 7793 17007 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.9 3.5 132 7298 19010 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 6.0 3.4 132 7392 18007 RA 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 5.7 1.1 132 6033 17009 0.13 0.00 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 5.8 1.3 132 5492 18005 RA 0.17 0.00 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 9.2 1.2 132 5401 26004 RA 0.01 0.00 MON 00Z 21-DEC 6.0 1.3 132 5378 24002 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 21-DEC 3.8 0.9 132 5166 23004 0.00 0.00 MON 12Z 21-DEC 2.6 1.3 132 5552 23005 0.00 0.00 MON 18Z 21-DEC 10.2 3.5 133 6404 25013 0.00 0.00 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.4 0.3 133 4858 24008 0.00 0.00 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 4.5 -3.4 131 3325 29007 0.00 0.00 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 1.5 -0.2 130 9956 31005 0.00 0.00 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 7.8 3.1 131 10510 02001 0.00 0.00 WED 00Z 23-DEC 4.2 7.7 133 10484 15004 0.00 0.00 WED 06Z 23-DEC 3.4 8.8 134 10559 18007 0.00 0.00 WED 12Z 23-DEC 4.7 8.2 133 9466 18011 0.00 0.00 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.8 4.4 133 7882 19016 0.00 0.00 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.7 2.2 133 6420 22009 RA 0.14 0.00 THU 06Z 24-DEC -0.7 -8.3 128 291 35009 SN 0.50 0.27 THU 12Z 24-DEC -3.8 -9.4 128 0 30003 0.01 0.34 THU 18Z 24-DEC -1.0 -13.2 127 221 29012 0.00 0.31 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -5.5 -15.8 125 0 30008 0.01 0.32 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -8.7 -16.6 124 0 29006 0.00 0.32 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -10.1 -16.0 123 0 28006 0.00 0.30   GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z DEC18 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 18-DEC -2.6 -4.0 128 211 03002 0.00 FRI 18Z 18-DEC 4.7 -1.1 130 4510 05003 0.00 0.00 SAT 00Z 19-DEC 1.4 1.3 131 10188 07002 0.00 0.00 SAT 06Z 19-DEC 0.5 3.0 131 9367 11001 0.00 0.00 SAT 12Z 19-DEC -0.2 2.1 131 8675 15002 0.00 0.00 SAT 18Z 19-DEC 7.2 2.5 132 8381 23003 0.00 0.00 SUN 00Z 20-DEC 4.1 3.0 132 7730 16002 0.00 0.00 SUN 06Z 20-DEC 3.3 -2.0 131 3538 20004 RA 0.01 0.01 SUN 12Z 20-DEC 3.2 1.2 132 5703 10003 RA 0.05 0.03 SUN 18Z 20-DEC 5.0 2.4 132 6242 21001 RA 0.05 0.03 MON 00Z 21-DEC 5.0 1.3 132 5511 19001 RA 0.01 0.03 MON 06Z 21-DEC 4.7 -0.1 132 4671 26003 0.01 0.03 MON 12Z 21-DEC 4.4 -0.2 131 4335 24005 0.00 0.03 MON 18Z 21-DEC 7.5 0.3 132 5400 24009 0.00 0.03 TUE 00Z 22-DEC 6.0 -1.1 132 4265 26008 0.00 0.03 TUE 06Z 22-DEC 3.6 -1.5 131 3866 25007 0.00 0.03 TUE 12Z 22-DEC 0.8 -4.3 130 2072 24003 0.00 0.03 TUE 18Z 22-DEC 7.4 -0.6 131 10304 34001 0.00 0.03 WED 00Z 23-DEC 3.4 3.7 131 10747 08002 0.00 0.03 WED 06Z 23-DEC 1.6 8.5 132 10674 11002 0.00 0.03 WED 12Z 23-DEC 0.8 6.4 132 10481 16002 0.00 0.03 WED 18Z 23-DEC 9.5 4.7 133 9662 21003 0.00 0.01 THU 00Z 24-DEC 7.0 4.3 133 7775 17003 0.00 0.01 THU 06Z 24-DEC 5.2 2.6 132 6376 06002 RA 0.18 0.03 THU 12Z 24-DEC -1.4 -6.5 128 632 32004 SN 0.85 0.24 THU 18Z 24-DEC -1.9 -11.4 127 392 30003 SN 0.27 0.67 FRI 00Z 25-DEC -6.7 -13.7 126 0 29008 0.03 0.69 FRI 06Z 25-DEC -11.6 -17.6 124 0 25005 0.00 0.70 FRI 12Z 25-DEC -13.9 -19.5 123 0 23005 0.00 0.70 I just jinxed everyone..lol

 

 

Goodbye power!

[jaxjagman]

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            12Z DEC18   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
FRI 12Z 18-DEC  -4.1    -9.5     127      28    30002                   0.09    
FRI 18Z 18-DEC   2.8    -6.2     129    2039    03001           0.00    0.09    
SAT 00Z 19-DEC  -1.5    -0.2     130    9841    10003           0.00    0.09    
SAT 06Z 19-DEC  -1.9     2.0     130    9551    07002           0.00    0.09    
SAT 12Z 19-DEC  -2.1     1.5     130    8429    11001           0.00    0.09    
SAT 18Z 19-DEC   7.7     1.9     132    8115    26002           0.00    0.06    
SUN 00Z 20-DEC   1.7     2.8     132    7994    10002           0.00    0.06    
SUN 06Z 20-DEC   0.8     1.5     131    6303    15002           0.00    0.06    
SUN 12Z 20-DEC   0.7    -1.1     130    3004    09002     RA    0.05    0.14    
SUN 18Z 20-DEC   4.1     1.5     132    5648    04001     RA    0.03    0.14    
MON 00Z 21-DEC   3.4     1.8     132    5804    09001     RA    0.04    0.11    
MON 06Z 21-DEC   3.6    -0.3     132    4590    24004           0.04    0.12    
MON 12Z 21-DEC   2.1    -1.4     131    3532    25004           0.01    0.12    
MON 18Z 21-DEC   4.6    -2.5     131    3448    25011           0.00    0.11    
TUE 00Z 22-DEC   3.7    -1.6     132    4013    25010     RA    0.02    0.12    
TUE 06Z 22-DEC   0.8    -4.1     130    3025    27006           0.03    0.12    
TUE 12Z 22-DEC  -1.1    -6.4     129    1247    25007           0.00    0.15    
TUE 18Z 22-DEC   1.9    -4.7     129    2656    29004           0.00    0.14    
WED 00Z 23-DEC  -1.0     1.5     130   10363    08002           0.00    0.11    
WED 06Z 23-DEC  -1.9     6.4     131   10532    10003           0.00    0.11    
WED 12Z 23-DEC  -1.7     7.2     131   10411    12002           0.00    0.11    
WED 18Z 23-DEC   9.1     7.1     133   10256    15005           0.00    0.11    
THU 00Z 24-DEC   3.5     3.7     132    8206    15003           0.00    0.08    
THU 06Z 24-DEC   2.4     1.7     132    6192    08002     RA    0.02    0.08    
THU 12Z 24-DEC   2.9     0.1     131    4504    31001     RA    0.22    0.09    
THU 18Z 24-DEC  -4.1   -11.1     127       1    29010     SN    0.53    0.57    
FRI 00Z 25-DEC  -7.5   -11.8     126       0    29007     SN    0.06    0.66    
FRI 06Z 25-DEC -11.0   -18.0     124       0    28009     SN    0.04    0.73    
FRI 12Z 25-DEC -15.2   -20.9     122       0    26008           0.01    0.73