Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[Morris]

Data from NOAA satellites indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 155 mph (245 km/h) with higher gusts.  Iota
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Iota could be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it
approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected
after landfall.

[Floydbuster]

[cptcatz]

Recon is in, approaching the eye...

[hawkeye_wx]

Over the last hour we're seeing a bit of warming of the cloud tops over the sw quad of the CDO.

One thing of note... the HWRF and HMON have consistently been too far north with the track.  Even up to last night, both models were still tracking the center up to the Nicaragua/Honduras border area.  Instead, the storm has moved nearly due west.

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears we have a cat 5.

917 mb extrap

147 kt flight level

140 kt SFMR

[NorthHillsWx]

Yep, last pass indicates cat 5

[csnavywx]

Yikes, 24C at FL in the eye, big honking delta. Prob 922 for dropsonde based on the extrap?

[cptcatz]

15 hours ago, cptcatz said:

4pm NHC now calling for 140 mph at landfall. They are usually conservative, so I wouldn't be surprised to see cat 5.

Knew it

[csnavywx]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Over the last hour we're seeing a bit of warming of the cloud tops over the sw quad of the CDO.

One thing of note... the HWRF and HMON have consistently been too far north with the track.  Even up to last night, both models were still tracking the center up to the Nicaragua/Honduras border area.  Instead, the storm has moved nearly due west.

Same track error as Eta. Wind funneling with the mountains to the west produced this same effect there too, so wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more SW movement.

[Moderately Unstable]

Holy crap. What did I wake up to. In the words of a former met prof, that's cat 5 country. I'll be darned. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The ocean heat graphic shows that Iota is now moving over a "cold" pool, so it won't be easy to maintain this intensity.

[Orangeburgwx]

Recon hauling due north, they had that one pass, saw it was a 5, and and booking it?

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[dan11295]

175
URNT12 KNHC 161253
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 16/12:21:00Z
B. 13.47 deg N 081.59 deg W
C. 700 mb 2427 m
D. 921 mb
E. 345 deg 1 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 140 kt
I. 337 deg 8 nm 12:18:30Z
J. 058 deg 147 kt
K. 335 deg 9 nm 12:18:00Z
L. 107 kt
M. 054 deg 7 nm 12:23:00Z
N. 161 deg 130 kt
O. 054 deg 7 nm 12:23:00Z
P. 10 C / 3060 m
Q. 25 C / 3046 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 0631A IOTA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 147 KT 335 / 9 NM 12:18:00Z

I would assume they will upgrade to a 160 mph cat 5

[hawkeye_wx]

921 mb

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Recon hauling due north, they had that one pass, saw it was a 5, and and booking it?

I suspect they abbreviated the typical trip well south of the center so they can get three passes in.

[Orangeburgwx]

921 mb
I suspect they abbreviated the trip south of the center so they can get three passes in.

So the Eyewall "ring around the rosie" flight pattern, this is gonna be nuts

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[A-L-E-K]

like

[Moderately Unstable]

Well, the alpha pattern is normally a bunch of left turns, so, they're flying a normal pattern. Last several entries to the storm have been from the NE, so the first turn was in the SW. They did abbreviate the SE leg on this pass. Otherwise though, here they flew in from the NW, so they turned left in the SE. Same pattern, different entry point, different directions. But of course, with Eta they encountered unsafe conditions at one point and had to abort. That could certainly happen too. 

[Orangeburgwx]

Here we go...

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[StormchaserChuck!]

Beautiful mid-November Hurricane. Pretty historic that a 31st storm would look like that, reminds me of the Global Warming days. 

[dan11295]

Still a chance they hold at 155 at 10 am. Although very strong argument for a upgrade to a cat 5.

[Orangeburgwx]

Still a chance they hold at 155 at 10 am. Although very strong argument for a upgrade to a cat 5.

If this pass gives us 140 SMFR, They gonna have to upgrade...

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[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Holy crap. What did I wake up to. In the words of a former met prof, that's cat 5 country. I'll be darned. 

Entering Cuba Nov 1932 Cat 5 territory.

By the way how did they ever determine that was a 175 mph storm?

 

 

[Moderately Unstable]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Entering Cuba Nov 1932 Cat 5 territory.

By the way how did they ever determine that was a 175 mph storm?

 

 

It was a ship report from inside the eye. Can't even imagine what that message was like lol. 

[sojitodd]

42 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It appears we have a cat 5.

917 mb extrap

147 kt flight level

140 kt SFMR

Now I guessed 917 last time...I just got the wrong storm-Iota instead of Eta. Iota was what I meant-It was like a premonition or something! 

So will the NHC issue a special advisory if recon shows a cat 5?

Also this could be worse than Eta for the only population center on the coast, Puerto Cabezas. 

I guess it will be bottom out at 913 mb.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The ocean heat graphic shows that Iota is now moving over a "cold" pool, so it won't be easy to maintain this intensity.

Either way, if it reaches Cat 5 that will be one more hurdle that 2020 has cleared.  One other thing, even if it doesn't LF as a Cat 5 it should be able to maintain Cat 5 surge levels right up to the coast as that has a lag effect.  Could get 20 ft plus storm surge and aren't we still at spring/king tide levels?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

It was a ship report from inside the eye. Can't even imagine what that message was like lol. 

I've seen some nightmare movies of ships encountering rogue waves, if it was worse than that I dont even want to imagine lol.

 

[Orangeburgwx]

140kt FL, 108 at surface

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[hawkeye_wx]

Only 108 kt SFMR in the ne eyewall doesn't scream cat 5.  Frankly, just looking at the satellite presentation I would guess cat 4.  It looked better a few hours ago.

[Windspeed]

Since daybreak..

[sojitodd]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Only 108 kt SFMR in the ne eyewall doesn't scream cat 5.  Frankly, just looking at the satellite presentation I would guess cat 4.

But only an hour ago you said this:

 

Quote

It appears we have a cat 5.

917 mb extrap

147 kt flight level

140 kt SFMR

Has it degraded that much?