Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Did ANY model (even the HRWF) have this?!Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted November 16, 2020 Drop was 936mb. Still pretty impressive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Did ANY model (even the HRWF) have this?! Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 10pm disco mentioned all skillful models had it a dangerous major cane before landfall... was forecast to peak at 140mph in 24 hours... but Iota had different ideas tonight Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 So uhhhhh... The comments on the VDM...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 Ragged eyewall in last VDM... EWRC coming maybe? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Ragged eyewall in last VDM... EWC coming? "Intense Lightning in all quadrants" You don't go from a 2 to a 4 in 4 hours and the eyewall survive. HOWEVER there was ZERO evidence of one on the data plots, might look ragged due to intense convection and mesos... (Or it is doing an Eyewall Merger like Laura did) Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted November 16, 2020 In context of rapid deepening, lightning in the eyewall, and report of a hexagonal shaped eye earlier, it is a reasonable conclusion that ragged implies mesovorts(probably several) rotating inside the eyewall. Furthermore, eye is C16, with no real competing outer bands present yet. We're probably at least 12 hours out from an EWRC, perhaps longer. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted November 16, 2020 Dorian, Maria and ETA could have done something similar for all we know. Recon just wasn't there at the exact moment. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STxVortex Posted November 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, yoda said: Cat 2 (105mph at 10pm) to Cat 4 (140mph at 1:40 am) in nearly 4 hours... impressive 0.15909090mph per minute increase [ 35mph/220min ]. Lessee, ~12 hours to landfall, 720 minutes x 0.16mph/min = another 115mph + 140 = 255mph landfall? Iota's actually ~190 miles from landfall, speed 10mph, so even worse... pure runaway WASG conjecture of course. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Oh...no... The dreaded low level jet... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Oh...no... The dreaded low level jet... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Has 903mb as the surface. Lol it didn't deepen that fast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Has 903mb as the surface. Lol it didn't deepen that fast.Sconde failed prior to splash down, but the fact the max winds are at the 850mb level is evidence enoughSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 So about the lightning...That freaking eyeball...Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted November 16, 2020 The ease of seeing the mesovortices rotate around the eyewall on shortwave IR *at night* is... something. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Man, best of the seasonSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Next recon has taken off from NOSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Intensewind002 Posted November 16, 2020 Jesus, the Atlantic is really doing it's best WPAC impression this November 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted November 16, 2020 Raw T up to 7.5. Would be amazing any other year. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Not even T10 (at 170 rn)Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted November 16, 2020 Recon hit a bird on takeoff and is delayed but still happening 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Recon hit a bird on takeoff and is delayed but still happening Wtf 2020Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nycwinter Posted November 16, 2020 planes have had to many mechanical issues this year Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KoalaBeer Posted November 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, hlcater said: Recon hit a bird on takeoff and is delayed but still happening Of course. Any guesses on pressure when recon arrives? ~920mb might be feasible if it keeps up. Looks incredible right now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JasonOH Posted November 16, 2020 Recon was wheels up at 0831z. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sojitodd Posted November 16, 2020 Dang! 933mb and 145 mph winds and this appears to be headed directly towards Puerto Cabezas. If it stays on the predicted track it will go right over it. I dread what might happen in the mountainous terrain of Honduras with the rain from this-it is basically Eta all over again just a little faster and with terrain even more saturated. I would expect some more devastating landslides/debris flows. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops. Iota is moving north of due west, or 280/09 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast until powerful Hurricane Iota makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later tonight. Shortly after landfall, a building ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to nudge Iota on a more westward track through 36 hours, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion across central and southwestern Honduras until it dissipates in the 72-96 hour period. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Iota is expected to remain in environmental conditions characterized by near-zero vertical wind shear, SSTs near 29 deg C, and a moist mid-level environment. The combination of these factors plus the relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 10 n mi, argues for continued rapid strengthening right up until landfall occurs, and Iota could be near Category 5 strength at that time. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Iota is forecast to become a tropical storm by 36 hours, and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, if not sooner, which is in line with the SHIPS intensity inland decay model. The NHC official intensity forecast remains above of all of the available guidance through 24 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America tonight. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely on Providencia today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 81.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 Looks like another couple of hours before recon gets into Iota again if I am looking at this correctly -- https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted November 16, 2020 By the time recon gets there, it will be nearing peak. I don't know of Iota is going to reach Cat 5 but it sure as hell looks like it is trying. With all the recon issues during Eta, it's possible Eta did reach a 5 for a short while only we lacked the data or sampled past peak. Iota on the other hand may actually not be at peak yet as the eye is still yet getting warmer and more circular. So timing of the next recon should be interesting. Also, holy guacamole at that GLM count in the southern eyewall. Provencia may be just south of it hopefully. Not sure. Parallax can be deceiving. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morris Posted November 16, 2020 7:00 AM EST Mon Nov 16 Location: 13.5°N 81.6°W Moving: W at 10 mph Min pressure: 925 mb Max sustained: 155 mph Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
