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WxWatcher007

Category 5 Hurricane Iota

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To my eyes, given a comparison between the two sat views [AF304, AF305, Mission #4&5], into IOTA in the link below, TC Iota is making a more WNW course heading than the plain "W" tracking given in recent NHC summaries. NHC 5day tracking page shows a steady W/WSW track, taking Iota well inland and heading for the Pacific.

IMFUO, based on a visual satellite eye course, Iota could almost clear that NE'ern Honduran Point and give Guatemala and Belize a scare later on ... unless steering currents I'm not factoring in are at play.

 

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/item/vdm/

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This would rival Wilma.  I believe Wilma dropped 10 mb in an hour during its peak strengthening.

It really stinks that recon only gets two passes down here.

They’re finished after this?

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

No choice due to flight distance

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

That’s a shame but I understand. This one is going nuclear. It would have been great to get another pass or two. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow 

Every six hours.  Another plane should be in the center about five hours from now.

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They’re finished after this?

Part of yesterdays recon plan, issued on Saturday and carries through today's plan :

 

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73
       A. 16/0530Z                   A. 16/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0531A IOTA           B. AFXXX 0631A IOTA
       C. 16/0100Z                   C. 16/0715Z
       D. 14.1N 80.8W                D. 14.2N 81.6W
       E. 16/0500Z TO 16/0830Z       E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY [ed: today 16 Nov] :  CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT
.

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2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml  

"WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SUN 15 NOVEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020
         TCPOD NUMBER.....20-173 "

Unless they squeeze something extra in there .

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Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
140 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY 
STRENGTHENED INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Iota 
now has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher 
gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 935 mb (27.61 
inches). The updated intensity will be reflected in the next 
advisory which will be issued by 400 AM EST.

SUMMARY OF 140 AM EST...0640 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky

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