Amped Posted November 16, 2020 Recons not going to like the SE eyewall any better. A ton of lightning there now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STxVortex Posted November 16, 2020 To my eyes, given a comparison between the two sat views [AF304, AF305, Mission #4&5], into IOTA in the link below, TC Iota is making a more WNW course heading than the plain "W" tracking given in recent NHC summaries. NHC 5day tracking page shows a steady W/WSW track, taking Iota well inland and heading for the Pacific. IMFUO, based on a visual satellite eye course, Iota could almost clear that NE'ern Honduran Point and give Guatemala and Belize a scare later on ... unless steering currents I'm not factoring in are at play. https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/item/vdm/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted November 16, 2020 Good lord look at that pressure drop. 931mb extrapolated. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Good lord look at that pressure drop. 931mb extrapolated.12 MB?!Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted November 16, 2020 Holy crap 931mb extrapolated? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted November 16, 2020 what the ****. That's a 12mb extrap drop between passes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 2 UNFLAGGED 121KT SMFR READINGSSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted November 16, 2020 Along with unflagged 134kt FL winds and 121kt SFMR. Now that’s impressive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2020 This would rival Wilma. I believe Wilma dropped 10 mb in an hour during its peak strengthening. It really stinks that recon only gets two passes down here. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MUWX Posted November 16, 2020 If only recon could be in there all night.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Cat 4Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: This would rival Wilma. I believe Wilma dropped 10 mb in an hour during its peak strengthening. It really stinks that recon only gets two passes down here. They’re finished after this? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2020 Raise your hand if you expected 140 mph by 06z tonight. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater Posted November 16, 2020 I dont get how this casually just dropped 12mb between passes. Especially when Eta couldn't do it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 I dont get how this casually just dropped 12mb between passes. Especially when Eta couldn't do it.Merger EWRC?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 They’re finished after this?No choice due to flight distanceSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted November 16, 2020 This makes up for at least some of the missed recon flights in other storms. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted November 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: No choice due to flight distance Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk That’s a shame but I understand. This one is going nuclear. It would have been great to get another pass or two. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MUWX Posted November 16, 2020 Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2020 Just now, MUWX said: Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow Every six hours. Another plane should be in the center about five hours from now. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow Posted it a few pages ago but hereSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2020 Also... Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STxVortex Posted November 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They’re finished after this? Part of yesterdays recon plan, issued on Saturday and carries through today's plan : FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73 A. 16/0530Z A. 16/1130Z B. AFXXX 0531A IOTA B. AFXXX 0631A IOTA C. 16/0100Z C. 16/0715Z D. 14.1N 80.8W D. 14.2N 81.6W E. 16/0500Z TO 16/0830Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY [ed: today 16 Nov] : CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted November 16, 2020 Eye has cleared nicely again. No doubt we will have a cat 4 overnight if not now. A high end 4 like Eta wouldn't shock me and maybe a tad stronger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
STxVortex Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: Do we get anymore recon before landfall? Couldn’t find a schedule for tomorrow https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml "WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EST SUN 15 NOVEMBER 2020 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020 TCPOD NUMBER.....20-173 " Unless they squeeze something extra in there . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 Sad that the same places that got raked and pummeled by high end Cat 4 Eta a week ago or so are about to get hit by another high end Cat 4 in Iota 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2020 NHC upgrade to 935 mb, 140 mph at 2am EST. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 140 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Iota now has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 935 mb (27.61 inches). The updated intensity will be reflected in the next advisory which will be issued by 400 AM EST. SUMMARY OF 140 AM EST...0640 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted November 16, 2020 Cat 2 (105mph at 10pm) to Cat 4 (140mph at 1:40 am) in nearly 4 hours... impressive. Strengthened 30 knots in just over 200 minutes Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
