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WxWatcher007

Category 5 Hurricane Iota

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Looks like Provencia Island is going to take a direct hit from Iota in the morning.
Iota has gained just enough latitude on a more WNW track over the past six hours now. So it looks like the southern eyewall will miss Provencia to the north fortunately.

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

You mean the eastern Caribbean. That’s where people say the graveyard is. 

Very true, GOL, typically for TC genesis.  

That said, we can’t forget hurricane Lenny who moved into the E Caribbean, from the W, and intensified into a 135 kt borderline Cat 4/5 hurricane at an even later date in November than this.

Given favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions (such as currently exists in the WC), it’s not as surprising as one might otherwise tend to believe...especially with La Nina & and MJO. 

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3 hours ago, jpeters3 said:

Just for fun, HWRF:

 

hwrf_mslp_uv850_31L_fh0-45.gif

Although I’d be hesitant to forecast that peak intensity, I also wouldn’t be too surprised if Iota does actually rival the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the most intense November NATL basin hurricane on record (150 kt/915mb).  The main impediment will be the prospect of an EWRC that prevents such an occurrence.

The current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, its structure, and amount of time left over such high OHC...makes it a conceivable proposition.  Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.  Albeit, I’m hoping it comes ashore well below that strength when it barrels into the CA coastline!
 

Edit: My best educated guess would be a peak at 135-140 kt. 
 

Additional edit (1:15 am (11/16):  I just now noticed that the attached map above was for 850 mb winds and not the 10 m version I’m used to seeing (should’ve paid more attention, obviously).  As such, I most definitely expect that intensity to be exceeded as noted in this post.  

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12 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Although I’d be hesitant to forecast that peak intensity, I also wouldn’t be too surprised if Iota does actually rival the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the most intense November NATL basin hurricane on record (150 kt/915mb).  The main impediment will be the prospect of an EWRC that prevents such an occurrence.

The current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, its structure, and amount of time left over such high OHC...makes it a conceivable proposition.  Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.  Albeit, I’m hoping it comes ashore well below that strength when it barrels into the CA coastline!
 

Edit: My best educated guess would be a peak at 135-140 kt. 

Perhaps you meant 135-140mph, not knots? 140kts is 161mph, well above the Cat 5 157mph threshold [factor in 180-200mph gusts and nearly everything in its' path is pau...]. I can't imagine something like your mention of the 1932 Cuba hurricane at 150kt, yikes !  The edges of the likes of Allen, Gilbert, Harvey, et al., were enough for me.

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

With such a rapid pressure fall, this will likely be a Cat 4 by dawn.

Latest pass suggests you won't have to wait until dawn.

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4 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Perhaps you meant 135-140mph, not knots? 140kts is 161mph, well above the Cat 5 157mph threshold [factor in 180-200mph gusts and nearly everything in its' path is pau...]. I can't imagine something like your mention of the 1932 Cuba hurricane at 150kt, yikes !  The edges of the likes of Allen, Gilbert, Harvey, et al., were enough for me.

The current structure and prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are suitable for a prospective 140 kt Cat 5 peak intensity...not necessarily when the eye itself actually crosses the coastline.  

I’ll be somewhat surprised if Iota doesn’t reach a peak of at least 130 kt (150 mph).  With a possible EWRC and slightly cooler SSTs near the CA shoreline, I think the floor is 120 kt and the ceiling is 135 kt, for landfall.  

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19 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

10pm advisory had 960mb

That Is 17mb in TWO FREAKING HOURS

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

you assume the 10pm advisory was correct. It was likely conservative but I don't blame them for that. It's what recon is for.

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1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said:

The current structure and prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are suitable for a prospective 140 kt Cat 5 peak intensity...not necessarily when the eye itself actually crosses the coastline.  

I’ll be somewhat surprised if Iota doesn’t reach a peak of at least 130 kt (150 mph).  With a possible EWRC and slightly cooler SSTs near the CA shoreline, I think the floor is 120 kt and the ceiling is 135 kt, for landfall.  

Understood. As a near and coastal dweller I can't imagine having three of these monsters getting anywhere nearby in the period of a few weeks like those poor Nic&Hons are being run over, in friggin November.

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The rest of the eye is clearing out now.   It's probably still  cranking out 3mb/hr.  

This is going to be close to ETAs intensity when it peaks out.

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