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WxWatcher007

Category 5 Hurricane Iota

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The GFS somehow gets it to 955mb before landfall even with the further south landfall.

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It appears the outflow from all the sw Caribbean convection is spilling northward over Iota's surface center, creating a bit of shear and sinking air.
I'm not real enthusiastic about this rapidly deepening into Nicaragua. They've already been through hell last week. That being said, there's enough time for the upper environment to evolve into more pristine conditions for it to have a period of rapid strengthening before landfall.

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It's got 2 days to figure itself out, not really impressed with the current look on IR. That said, growing consensus on a landfall location that is the same (or nearly the same) as Eta, so that will be a big problem

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40 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This is a good thing that it's not looking so hot.

I think those poor people down there have been through enough and don't need a second major strike less than 2 weeks apart.

Real problem would be the rain regardless of landfall intensity.

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46 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I'd say things are improving atmospherically pretty quick now....
307df69ee6cb410b8f7f6fc3575ba0a3.gif

Man those are some cold cloud tops.  -135+ degrees.

Probably a safe bet to say its under going RI.

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Recon just cleared the gulf coast, IF it makes it in, I say borderline Cat 1

The plane is scheduled to reach the center around 12:30am EST.  It's a long flight

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52 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Oh boy... This looks like it's about to go off like a stick of dynamite.

It picked up in a hurry convectively, but we’ll see if there’s an actual core when recon gets there. Definitely looking good right now. If that goes for a few hours it should be enough to get at least a nascent core. 

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I would say at minimal it's a hurricane now.

Looking  at IR there is clearly a eyewall structure there.

So its only going to get stronger tonight. 

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Much of the convection has been east of the center this evening, but an intense blob has recently exploded near/over the center.  It looks much more like a tropical storm now.  Recon is still three hours away.

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Mid and upper vortex pretty well stacked.

LLC showing a possible eye structure .

Looking at IR. Hurricane Iota no more or no less 

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You cannot see an eyewall via IR imagery. You can see one using microwave imagery, kind of, sometimes...but the best ways are via radar or via plane (which has a radar on board). IR tells you how cold the cloud tops are. Useful, but less than you'd think. Cold clouds mean a strongly unstable atmosphere, not necessarily RI. You do need good conditions for RI, so cold clouds can tell you one of the ingredients is there. It is not a diagnostic tool on its own though.There are numerous examples of mediocre looking storms that had excellent organization and winds, and amazingly robust storms with loads of convection that made you think wow this thing is insane...only to have a plane come in and say "sorry, not today holmes". Now, in the last 30 minutes or so the organization of the convective pattern itself has arranged into a fairly classic cut RI pattern so I think, when you combine the imagery with model guidance, yes, you should expect this to be the start of the RI phase. Similarly you should expect this thread to quickly expand from 2 pages of comments to around 10-15 in fairly short order. Final point, as I've said before- tropical weather systems have a lot of mass, they require a lot of momentum to spin up the winds, so remember not to forecast via 10 or 1-minute satellite update.

 

Enjoy the show. 

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Wouldn't be suprised if Iota is well into category 1 range right now. Looks absolutely formidable, and that curved band is something to witness

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Anyone know what the furthest storm a hurricane hunter plane has flown to from the continental US? I know sometimes they remobolize to the virgin islands but it seems like based on the plane's range it may only have time for one pass through the eye before having to turn back. 

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5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know what the furthest storm a hurricane hunter plane has flown to from the continental US? I know sometimes they remobolize to the virgin islands but it seems like based on the plane's range it may only have time for one pass through the eye before having to turn back. 

Ah... That's a good point you bring up. It would probably take multiple recon missions flown in incrementally, rather than one that remains there, in order to have data on the storm continuously for a longer period of time (assuming we do arrive at a point where having the data becomes more important for the forecast or just so we know how strong it truly is). We'll see if that's possible given the recent issues and safety matters.

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