• Member Statistics

    16,271
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gelavis
    Newest Member
    Gelavis
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Category 5 Hurricane Iota

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Can't confirm this footage is solely Iota, let alone from Nicaragua/Honduras...

I'm sure it is legit footage from past storms, maybe some from Eta, possibly a clip or two from Iota. Probably too soon to see a lot from Iota. Still a good view of what they go through there whenever they get hammered with tropical systems and seasonal monsoons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

 

I'm surprised how dry the area is. Obviously a lot of vegetation was stripped away, but it looks pretty brown and barren anyway. I pictured a lush tropical jungle. I'm sure it has be deforested horribly.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/16/2020 at 7:05 PM, jpeters3 said:

I am a meteorology professor.

Why don't you go find me an observation from the previous two recon missions that supports a cat 5 intensity? 

Then you'd be the right person to ask this question (actually series of questions).

Do you find the changes in categories in the Saffir Simpson scale rather abrupt? I do.  For example, both a 135 mph hurricane and a 155 mph hurricane are considered Cat 4, while the latter is much closer to and causes the same amount of damage as a 160 mph Cat 5.

Also, (and I've mentioned this before), since the public statements issued by the NHC are in 5 mph increments, I believe the scale's categorization should be similarly incremented.  On top of that (or rather in lieu of that) when a wind is categorized to be within 5 mph of the next category, the storm should be labeled as being on the border of both categories....for example 110 mph hurricane should be considered a Cat 2/3 and a 155 mph hurricane should be a Cat 4/5.

One other thing.....what's different with the scale they use in the West Pac?  Any storm of 150 mph or higher is considered a Super Typhoon?  I actually think that makes more sense, since it would get the public's attention better than saying a storm was a Cat 5....why not use the term Super Hurricane here?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/16/2020 at 7:25 PM, ncforecaster89 said:

 

The western eyewall of #HurricaneIota is moving into NE Nicaragua, currently, as a likely high-end Cat 4...bringing all the catastrophic effects mentioned previously. Worst of 15-20’ storm surge will come barreling onshore when the wind shifts to a direct onshore flow.

 

Hey you!  How do you compare this to Michael?

You'd be a good person to ask since you experienced Michael first hand.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/17/2020 at 5:46 PM, dan11295 said:

Phony link on twitter aside, it is apparent that the island of Providencia was hit very hard. Iota went right over it while at Category 5 strength. Note that Eta missed the island as it was moving southwest prior to landfall.

shouldn't this be considered a Cat 5 landfall then?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

shouldn't this be considered a Cat 5 landfall then?

 

who cares since the nhc probably wont retire greek names these storms will be forgotten... years from now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Cat 5 landfalls are extremely uncommon, but somewhat more common along the Central American coast.  What was that year that Central America had two Cat 5 landfalls?
 
Dean and Felix in 2007.
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Cat 5 landfalls are extremely uncommon, but somewhat more common along the Central American coast.  What was that year that Central America had two Cat 5 landfalls?
 

Dean and Felix in 2007.

Thanks, they weren't that far apart either as far as I recall.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey you!  How do you compare this to Michael?

You'd be a good person to ask since you experienced Michael first hand.

 

But how can he compare something he wasn't in to something he actually was in?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

shouldn't this be considered a Cat 5 landfall then?

 

Technically a "landfall" is only when the center crosses over land. If the eyewall hits land but the exact center stays offshore, the term is "direct hit."

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/19/2020 at 11:06 PM, LibertyBell said:

Hey you!  How do you compare this to Michael?

You'd be a good person to ask since you experienced Michael first hand.

 

Hi Liberty! Unlike with hurricane Michael, whereby I experienced the absolute brunt of the Cat 5 conditions, I actually didn’t chase Iota.  

That said, a combination of all of the available data suggests Michael was slightly stronger than Iota at their respective peak intensities, but essentially the same.

Fortunately, the absolute brunt of the Cat 5 winds, located within Iota’s inner eyewall, appear to have passed just to the N of the island of Providencia.  Even so, the residents there were still battered by extreme high-end Cat 4 winds, as evidenced by the pictures taken in the aftermath.

All that aside, I hope you’re doing well and have a great rest of the weekend!  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/19/2020 at 11:28 PM, nycwinter said:

who cares since the nhc probably wont retire greek names these storms will be forgotten... years from now.

lolwut?  Do people actually only remember storms if the NHC retires the name?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Liberty! Unlike with hurricane Michael, whereby I experienced the absolute brunt of the Cat 5 conditions, I actually didn’t chase Iota.  

That said, a combination of all of the available data suggests Michael was slightly stronger than Iota at their respective peak intensities, but essentially the same.

Fortunately, the absolute brunt of the Cat 5 winds, located within Iota’s inner eyewall, appear to have passed just to the N of the island of Providencia.  Even so, the residents there were still battered by extreme high-end Cat 4 winds, as evidenced by the pictures taken in the aftermath.

All that aside, I hope you’re doing well and have a great rest of the weekend!  

Thanks, to you as well!  I concur that Michael was slightly stronger and also intensifying at landfall (a very important aspect of this!)  I have to speculate that if Eta had not happened prior to Iota, Iota may in fact have gotten even stronger.  Even moreso, had Iota occurred in October, as Michael (and Wilma) did, Iota may have gotten as strong as Wilma did.  I think we have some room (unfortunately) to get an Atlantic hurricane stronger than Wilma....and I believe it will happen in the next few decades.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/20/2020 at 5:28 PM, Calderon said:

But how can he compare something he wasn't in to something he actually was in?

I remember Hurricane Agnes when I was a kid. Not a landfall in Tampa Bay, and not a Cat 5, but the highest storm surge around here for maybe almost 100 years (80+ anyway).

Being in something makes it real, builds those lasting memories. The sounds, sights, the feel, whatever panic or scrambling that has to be done, ignoring Hollywood Squares on TV because something more important is happening, etc.

Life experience rules.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think we have some room (unfortunately) to get an Atlantic hurricane stronger than Wilma....and I believe it will happen in the next few decades.

Count on it. Just look at the past few years.

I should know this, but what is considered the be the most powerful and destructive hurricane to hit the US coast in modern history.

Camille is what I remember growing up. Andrew with my wife's stories going through it and scenes of destruction, Michael watching online.

Sandy?

;)

 

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Count on it. Just look at the past few years.
I should know this, but what is considered the be the most powerful and destructive hurricane to hit the US coast in modern history.
Camille is what I remember growing up. Andrew with my wife's stories going through it and scenes of destruction, Michael watching online.
Sandy?

 
 
Modern? Well the most destructive is still going to be Katrina for what it did to the MS and LA coastlines. Most powerful? That's still going to be the Labor Day 1935 storm with its ridiculous sub 895 hPa landfall and 185 sustained winds.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, to you as well!  I concur that Michael was slightly stronger and also intensifying at landfall (a very important aspect of this!)  I have to speculate that if Eta had not happened prior to Iota, Iota may in fact have gotten even stronger.  Even moreso, had Iota occurred in October, as Michael (and Wilma) did, Iota may have gotten as strong as Wilma did.  I think we have some room (unfortunately) to get an Atlantic hurricane stronger than Wilma....and I believe it will happen in the next few decades.

 

 

Eta definitely had some effect Iota due to upwelling. However that effect is much less pronounced in that area then pretty much anywhere else as warm water extends to tremendous depths. 
As far as November vs October that region does not experience cold fronts so waters would be only the slightest bit cooler 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/23/2020 at 6:16 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Eta definitely had some effect Iota due to upwelling. However that effect is much less pronounced in that area then pretty much anywhere else as warm water extends to tremendous depths. 
As far as November vs October that region does not experience cold fronts so waters would be only the slightest bit cooler 

That area is like a micro version of the West Pac....I remember when Josh chased those back to back Cat 5s there....and remember how horrendous Mitch was down there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/22/2020 at 10:49 PM, Windspeed said:
On 11/22/2020 at 9:22 PM, Prospero said:
Count on it. Just look at the past few years.
I should know this, but what is considered the be the most powerful and destructive hurricane to hit the US coast in modern history.
Camille is what I remember growing up. Andrew with my wife's stories going through it and scenes of destruction, Michael watching online.
Sandy?
emoji6.png
 
 

Modern? Well the most destructive is still going to be Katrina for what it did to the MS and LA coastlines. Most powerful? That's still going to be the Labor Day 1935 storm with its ridiculous sub 895 hPa landfall and 185 sustained winds.

I realize we are based in the US but Mitch was way worse than Katrina.  The number of people who died is mind boggling.  It was on a level with some of the worst typhoons that hit Bangladesh.

Wilma was also more powerful than the Labor Day 1935 storm, although we're splitting hairs here.

 

edit- just saw you were responding to Prospero's post about the strongest storms to hit the US not about the entire Atlantic basin.

 

I will say this though.....Dorian came within 100 miles of wiping away all the records set by previous US landfalling storms....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/22/2020 at 9:22 PM, Prospero said:

Count on it. Just look at the past few years.

I should know this, but what is considered the be the most powerful and destructive hurricane to hit the US coast in modern history.

Camille is what I remember growing up. Andrew with my wife's stories going through it and scenes of destruction, Michael watching online.

Sandy?

;)

 

 

Dorian came within a a few hours drive of wiping away all previous US records......could you imagine a Cat 5 stalling like that on the Fla coast instead of the Bahamas?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/22/2020 at 9:16 PM, Prospero said:

I remember Hurricane Agnes when I was a kid. Not a landfall in Tampa Bay, and not a Cat 5, but the highest storm surge around here for maybe almost 100 years (80+ anyway).

Being in something makes it real, builds those lasting memories. The sounds, sights, the feel, whatever panic or scrambling that has to be done, ignoring Hollywood Squares on TV because something more important is happening, etc.

Life experience rules.

Someone called my attention to a very weird storm that happened in December 1994 wondering if it might have been tropical.  The history of this storm is fascinating, it even underwent Fujiwhara which sent it NW making landfall near JFK with winds of 70 knots!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_1994_nor'easter

The Christmas 1994 nor'easter was an intense cyclone along the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada. It developed from an area of low pressure in the southeast Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Keys, and moved across the state of Florida. As it entered the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean, it began to rapidly intensify, exhibiting traits of a tropical system, including the formation of an eye. It attained a pressure of 970 millibars on December 23 and 24, and after moving northward, it came ashore near New York City on Christmas Eve. Because of the uncertain nature of the storm, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) did not classify it as a tropical cyclone.

Heavy rain from the developing storm contributed to significant flooding in South Carolina. Much of the rest of the East Coast was affected by high winds, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. New York State and New England bore the brunt of the storm; damage was extensive on Long Island, and in Connecticut, 130,000 households lost electric power during the storm. Widespread damage and power outages also occurred throughout Rhode Island and Massachusetts, where the storm generated 30-foot (9.1 m) waves along the coast. Because of the warm weather pattern that contributed to the storm's development, precipitation was limited to rain. Two people were killed, and damage amounted to at least $21 million.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More footage and information is making its way out of Providencia. The flyover footage is very Irma-esque. Wish we could of had some radar coverage there like we did with Eta. It was tough to tell on satellite if they made it into the inner core of the eyewall but I'm guessing they did based on the footage we are now seeing. 

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/16/2020 at 6:14 AM, Windspeed said:

By the time recon gets there, it will be nearing peak. I don't know of Iota is going to reach Cat 5 but it sure as hell looks like it is trying. With all the recon issues during Eta, it's possible Eta did reach a 5 for a short while only we lacked the data or sampled past peak. Iota on the other hand may actually not be at peak yet as the eye is still yet getting warmer and more circular. So timing of the next recon should be interesting.

 

Also, holy guacamole at that GLM count in the southern eyewall. Provencia may be just south of it hopefully. Not sure. Parallax can be deceiving.5647adb1db94f4274ffe92ec01bccd4d.gif&key=edc0af49204bb620ea182ecfdd6cfaa60342e1f2dfc19b9d8fddb9261ebc1642

@KoalaBeer

Devastating video of Provencia. I think it did get spared from the actual southern eyewall, not that matters much with a storm like this. I can't imagine what the island would look like if it passed just south.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/28/2020 at 8:39 PM, Prospero said:

@KoalaBeer

Devastating video of Provencia. I think it did get spared from the actual southern eyewall, not that matters much with a storm like this. I can't imagine what the island would look like if it passed just south.

What would be considered a worst case scenario?  The eye misses the island but the island spends the entire time in the inner eyewall?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What would be considered a worst case scenario?  The eye misses the island but the island spends the entire time in the inner eyewall?

That's something that's always peaked my interest. What's worse? Spending more time in the inner eyewall getting absolutely blasted by cat4/5 winds for a longer period...or you go straight through the eye and get the break and calm, but the winds come roaring in the opposite direction causing damage to infrastructure that was otherwise somewhat protected from earlier wind directions. End of the day it's probably a lose lose. The fact they either got the southern eyewall or very close to it where all the intense lighting was popping off probably didn't help either. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

That's something that's always peaked my interest. What's worse? Spending more time in the inner eyewall getting absolutely blasted by cat4/5 winds for a longer period...or you go straight through the eye and get the break and calm, but the winds come roaring in the opposite direction causing damage to infrastructure that was otherwise somewhat protected from earlier wind directions. End of the day it's probably a lose lose. The fact they either got the southern eyewall or very close to it where all the intense lighting was popping off probably didn't help either. 

It’s most definitely worse to be continually blasted by the inner eyewall of the quadrant with onshore winds (right side), than going directly through the center of the eye.  The most powerful winds are in this sector of the eyewall and also comes “roaring” from the “opposite direction” (e.g. wind shift).  The only difference being that there’s no break in between.  For areas on the immediate coastline, not only do you have those extreme winds, but worse yet...the wind shift brings in a catastrophic storm surge!  
 

In short, given the choice of the two, it’s certainly most preferable to get into the eye!  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.