Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[Calderon]

13 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Before you make a comment that it’s weakening an hour before the hurricane center put out a statement I believe is totally unprofessional Then again they are professionals and you’re not

The person LITERALLY has the red, degreed meteorologist tagging. So....try harder?

I'm orange because while I'm not degreed, I am professionally trained, enlisted,  and currently forecasting overseas with the World's Finest Navy. 

[JasonOH]

Back on topic: latest recon pass showing that the south inner eyewall has almost completely collapsed 

[Prospero]

Am I having dinner with my wife's family?

[jpeters3]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

Listen dude we can go back-and-forth all day long all I was doing was posting with the national Hurricane center was saying that’s all if you want to say it’s weakening  Will go with it either way strong category four with category five it’s still going to be devastating we both can agree to that

We can agree on that.  Devastating impacts regardless of whether it's a cat 4 or 5.

[hlcater]

Just now, Calderon said:

The person LITERALLY has the red, degreed meteorologist tagging. So....try harder?

I'm orange because while I'm not degreed, I am professionally trained, enlisted,  and currently forecasting overseas with the World's Finest Navy. 

 

Just now, jpeters3 said:

We can agree on that.  Devastating impacts regardless of whether it's a cat 4 or 5.

Weren't you an SPC met for a time? IIRC?

[jpeters3]

Just now, hlcater said:

 

Weren't you an SPC met for a time? IIRC?

I was not.  But I study thunderstorms/convection, so I I think that qualifies me as a "professional"

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

I was not.  But I study thunderstorms/convection, so I I think that qualifies me as a "professional"

There was a jeff peters there a few years back. Myself and a few others thought it may have been you.

[ncforecaster89]

The western eyewall of #HurricaneIota is moving into NE Nicaragua, currently, as a likely high-end Cat 4...bringing all the catastrophic effects mentioned previously. Worst of 15-20’ storm surge will come barreling onshore when the wind shifts to a direct onshore flow.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

919 mb per the latest dropsonde.

[cptcatz]

There is zero point in downgrading it right now when there's a chance of a single person in its path looking at the downgrade and thinking it's not as bad as it was earlier today, and they let their guard down and end up getting killed. When it's all over the NHC can easily go back and say "yeah we changed our mind and don't think it was a Cat 5 approaching landfall anymore".

The ONLY thing a downgrade would do right now is make the situation more dangerous. 

[sojitodd]

Looks like Puerto Cabezas is going right into the RFQ. *sigh*  I feel for those people, two major hurricanes back to back and Covid-19 to deal with in shelters.  I hope the US and other nations can manage to get some significant aid into that area soon. Nicaragua and Honduras are going to be overwhelmed with need.

[the ghost of leroy]

Poor jpeters. All the bad red taggers here have weenies coming at him like the degree means nothing. 

[sojitodd]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

There is zero point in downgrading it right now when there's a chance of a single person in its path looking at the downgrade and thinking it's not as bad as it was earlier today, and they let their guard down and end up getting killed. When it's all over the NHC can easily go back and say "yeah we changed our mind and don't think it was a Cat 5 approaching landfall anymore".

The ONLY thing a downgrade would do right now is make the situation more dangerous. 

I agree. I saw and posted earlier reports that people right in the direct path(Wawa just south of Puerto Cabezas) were fatigued and worn out from Eta and were afraid of getting Covid-19 in shelters and some were not wanting to evacuate their homes(or what is left of their homes from Eta). I hope they changed their minds.

 

I don't want to think about the completely unpredictable major landslides that may occur given the already saturated soils from Eta.  Again people may not want to evacuate areas that are dangerous because where would they go with Covid-19 and all. Shelters may be seen as crowded or dangerous with the pandemic and all. Just very sad all around for those people,

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

There is zero point in downgrading it right now when there's a chance of a single person in its path looking at the downgrade and thinking it's not as bad as it was earlier today, and they let their guard down and end up getting killed. When it's all over the NHC can easily go back and say "yeah we changed our mind and don't think it was a Cat 5 approaching landfall anymore".

The ONLY thing a downgrade would do right now is make the situation more dangerous. 

Unfortunately around there, nobody is likely paying attention to the Cat call, they are clinging onto whatever they have to hold onto to save their lives. I would be very surprised if any power is on, and reliable internet is something they dream of having someday.

We are spoiled here in America.

[the ghost of leroy]

6 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

 

The ONLY thing a downgrade would do right now is make the situation more dangerous. 

I doubt many people in the path of the storm are making decisions based on a 5-10kt difference in NHC advisory strength. 

[sojitodd]

1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Poor jpeters. All the bad red taggers here have weenies coming at him like the degree means nothing. 

And he not only has a degree he teaches the stuff. We all know it is not a cat 5 right now(given the HH aircraft data) but that can be corrected later. 

[kvegas-wx]

26 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I bet you also think Trump won the election.

Edit: ok, sorry, now I'm just being a dick.

Its ok man.  After reading the tropical threads all season long I have come to appreciate your knowledge and the knowledge of others.  And its ok to be wrong too.  For example, you weren't being a dick and yes, Trump did win the election.  See, that was easy to find middle ground!

Politics and dicks aside, don't bash the red tags.  They've earned it.

[sojitodd]

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Unfortunately around there, nobody is likely paying attention to the Cat call, they are clinging onto whatever they have to hold onto to save their lives. I would be very surprised if any power is on, and reliable internet is something they dream of having someday.

We are spoiled here in America.

Maybe it might make a small difference when it comes to inland urban areas-maybe a small number of people might change their minds and just think of it being even stronger than Eta and evacuate dangerous areas? Hopefully it does make a difference if only a small one in those inland urban areas prone to flooding or landslides.
 

[Cincy12]

32 minutes ago, Calderon said:

The person LITERALLY has the red, degreed meteorologist tagging. So....try harder?

I'm orange because while I'm not degreed, I am professionally trained, enlisted,  and currently forecasting overseas with the World's Finest Navy. 

You don’t have to salute the man, but you will salute the rank! Ah yes, I miss it sometimes. 
 

Thank you for your service. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Satellite shows the current eye beginning to degrade.  At the same time, the outer band is flaring up.

[JasonOH]

Flight level wind speeds in the north quad are coming back up.

[Prospero]

5 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

Maybe it might make a small difference when it comes to inland urban areas-maybe a small number of people might change their minds and just think of it being even stronger than Eta and evacuate dangerous areas?

When Eta was approaching I did some due-diligence on the area. Not a lot of urban areas anywhere near Puerto Cabezas. That is "the" urban area, and even though it sounds like a pretty place to visit if the Gvt was open to tourism, it is very poor. They are still recovering from Felix in 2007. That does not mean their lives are any less important, but doubtful they have anywhere to evacuate to, if they even could.

The small islands do evacuate and they should be empty except whoever refuses to go.

[hawkeye_wx]

SFMR maxed out at only 97 kt on the latest recon pass through the northern eyewall.

[ncforecaster89]

Three quick points:

1) There is a very tragic and deadly situation currently unfolding for our friends and fellow human beings down in NE Nicaragua & Honduras.  
 

2) All the available data strongly suggests Iota has weakened to a Cat 4, but won’t  make much difference in the overall effects in the area.  The NHC will likely adjust the landfall intensity in postseason analysis.  
 

3)  There’s a reason I post on this forum and others without a need to claim my “red-tag” or any other formality to designate I am a degreed meteorologist and have worked in the field, professionally (to include a student-internship at the NHC during college).  Specifically, I don’t consider myself, or any other, superior simply because of such credentials (even if likely more experienced).  We should all just respect one another, regardless, and appreciate the simple fact tropical meteorology is a truly inexact science whereby we all can continue to learn as time goes forward!  

[JasonOH]

North eyewall going absolutely bonkers again at flight level.  This needs to get on land quick before it mixes down.

[hlcater]

145kts at flight level on the way out. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Yeah, the elevated wind is still there.  140+ kts is actually an increase from recent passes.  There is a big drop-off to the surface for now.

It looks like 920 or 921 mb now.

[ncforecaster89]

19 minutes ago, hlcater said:

145kts at flight level on the way out. 

Based on this data and the continued very deep pressure readings, I’d set the landfall intensity at 130 kt...if nothing else changes.  

Edit: I’d toss the SFMR data so close to shore due to shoaling in shallow waters.  

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It looks like 920 or 921 mb now.

Eta was 929 at peak, right?

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Yeah, the elevated wind is still there.  140+ kts is actually higher than other recent passes.  There is a big drop-off to the surface for now.

I don’t think it’s going to matter much for puerto cabezas