Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[Orangeburgwx]

My guess when recon hits the eye/eyewall:

925mb
130kts

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

[hlcater]

8 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

For those who thought this was possibly weakening. Not

If you read the discussion, Blake acknowledges that it is probably slightly weaker than earlier.

[jpeters3]

18 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

For those who thought this was possibly weakening. Not

The discussions of weakening were based on numerous recon observations.  Suggest doing some reading before making these sorts of statements.  

[Prospero]

Shame a storm like this will have no to very little video record on landfall. People who live there already beat down from Eta, and the potential for lives lost is huge.

Horrible.

We watch by sats and hurricane hunters in awe, safe in our homes.

[STxVortex]

This incredible Hurricane Iota is going to hit those poor damned Nicaraguans and Hondurans the hardest at the worst time, landfalling after dark, and rage all night long. Many of y'all have experienced similar storms [likely much weaker], at home or at sea or both, and have some concept of what they're going to face.

Try to assist the survivors in some way in the coming weeks, they're going to need it. The reports from Providencia Island and others will likely be unimaginable. Anything at sea near the track of Iota is probably on the bottom now [like shrimpers, fishermen].

[burrel2]

18 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

My guess when recon hits the eye/eyewall:

925mb
130kts

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Hard for me to buy a 6-7mb increase with how pristine IR looks right now. 

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Many of y'all have experienced similar storms [likely much weaker], at home or at sea or both, and have some concept of what they're going to face.

I'm still complaining about TS Eta messing up my yard with mediocre TS winds. Not the worst storm I've experienced, but getting older I'm way less tolerant.

Iota could be 100 mph more than what we just "endured" that created a problem. How much difference between 40 mph and 140 mph? Yikes!

Amazing sats.

[Prospero]

I don't see lightning flashes.

What would the explanation be? I sure don't know.

EDIT: OK there are some. The sats are very slow tonight!

[SnowLover22]

I am guessing they only find up to 145 mph winds. We will see very shortly

[Cincy12]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I'm still complaining about TS Eta messing up my yard with mediocre TS winds. Not the worst storm I've experienced, but getting older I'm way less tolerant.

Iota could be 100 mph more than what we just "endured" that created a problem. How much difference between 40 mph and 140 mph? Yikes!

Amazing sats.

For countries with some sort of building requirements, I’d say life changing. BVI’s are still rebuilding from Irma. The headlines won’t show buildingS destroyed. Unfortunately, they will show death counts. Sad day. May they find high ground.

[SnowLover22]

2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I am guessing they only find up to 145 mph winds. We will see very shortly

they only found 110 mph winds so far, also evidence of a secondary wind max

[hlcater]

Winds are lower, but there are codominant maxima in the N semicircle. Pressure is basically unchanged from earlier, if not up maybe a mb or two. 

[JasonOH]

Definite EWRC in progress.  Both sides sampled so far have the outer eyewall stringer at flight level. The inner eyewall should start degrading rapidly throughout this recon flight.  I’m thinking some of the weakening of IR presentation around the eye is due to the EWRC.

[hlcater]

And if there was any doubt, here it is. 

[thunderbolt]

42 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

The discussions of weakening were based on numerous recon observations.  Suggest doing some reading before making these sorts of statements.  

 Then why did they say it is a category five then

[hawkeye_wx]

917 mb per the dropsonde, so the pressure is not rising at all.  It's just a structure issue knocking the wind down.

[jpeters3]

2 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

 Then why did they say it is a category five then

Not really sure, and the forecast discussion seemed to acknowledge that it probably wasn't actually a cat 5.  But they have the same data we do, and it's pretty easy to look at the data yourself by simply paging back in this thread.  The last recon mission did not obtain one observation that supported cat 5.  The current recon is finding even weaker winds at the surface, which continues to support weakening.  So before you tell everyone in the thread they are wrong, I suggest you browse the available information.

[hlcater]

Perhaps even more puzzling:

7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16 Location: 13.6°N 83.0°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 918 mb Max sustained: 160 mph

[jpeters3]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

917 mb per the dropsonde, so the pressure is not rising at all.  It's just a structure issue knocking the wind down.

I see 919, but with a 17 kt surface wind.  This suggests 917ish.

[jpeters3]

Just now, hlcater said:

Perhaps even more puzzling:

7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16 Location: 13.6°N 83.0°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 918 mb Max sustained: 160 mph

This portion of the track will probably be downgraded in post-storm analysis.

[hawkeye_wx]

3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Perhaps even more puzzling:

7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16 Location: 13.6°N 83.0°W Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 918 mb Max sustained: 160 mph

If recon makes a few more passes and continues to find lower wind, the NHC will have to drop it to a cat 4.  I'm sure that is why they are holding off for now.

[jpeters3]

3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Before you make a comment that it’s weakening an hour before the hurricane center put out a statement I believe is totally unprofessional Then again they are professionals and you’re not

First of all, what you posted doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but I gather that it was meant to be condescending.  Second of all, I am a professional.  Third of all, go look at the data yourself.  Don't just keep saying I'm wrong. 

Edit: the last several missions are available to you on Tropical Tidbits.

[hlcater]

Just now, jpeters3 said:

This portion of the track will probably be downgraded in post-storm analysis.

I'm surprised they kept it given the recon obs clearly suggesting a mature EWRC is underway. Keeping it at 21z, I can understand, but I would've knocked it to ~150mph now.

[dan11295]

I tend to agree recon data currently does not support a Cat 5. Unfortunately its not going to make much difference as to impacts here. You have two Category 4 hurricanes making landfall at the same place within 2 weeks.

[jpeters3]

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

So you work for the national hurricane center 

I am a meteorology professor.

Why don't you go find me an observation from the previous two recon missions that supports a cat 5 intensity? 

[JasonOH]

3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Before you make a comment that it’s weakening an hour before the hurricane center put out a statement I believe is totally unprofessional Then again they are professionals and you’re not

The recon data currently does not support Cat 5.  There’s lots of things NHC deals with like advisory continuity that don’t matter to us. Is it likely a cat 5 now (or an hour ago)? No. NHC has to worry about messaging, while we don’t, so we can analyze and say what we actually think is happening. They likely kept it at Cat 5 in this case for consistent messaging, even though it likely isn’t one.  I’m betting this part gets downgraded in the post analysis. 

[jpeters3]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

Once again do you work for the national hurricane center

You clearly don't understand what you are talking about.  Just because someone doesn't work for the national hurricane center doesn't mean that they aren't a professional in the field.

[JasonOH]

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

Tell that to the professionals

At this point I’m pretty sure you’re just trolling, in which case we should have the mods roll up here and deal with it.  Even if he doesn’t work for NHC that doesn’t mean he isn’t knowledgeable on tropical cyclones. For all we know his research could be in them. Mets don’t have to all agree, and if done tactfully is a major positive in the community that results in better forecasts in the end. 

[TPAwx]

Looks like Random Internet Guy is here to tell the experts they really don’t know anything.

Morans!

[thunderbolt]

Listen dude we can go back-and-forth all day long all I was doing was posting with the national Hurricane center was saying that’s all if you want to say it’s weakening  Will go with it either way strong category four with category five it’s still going to be devastating we both can agree to that