Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[Morris]

[hawkeye_wx]

918 or 919 mb, per dropsonde.

The satellite presentation is showing steady improvement.  If this continues, the next pass may show a lower pressure.

[olafminesaw]

Over the past hour, the eye has ticked north a bit.

[hawkeye_wx]

The shelf along the Nicaraguan coast is quite shallow, like the US gulf coast, which is why the NHC is forecasting 15-20 ft of storm surge.

[Windspeed]

I'd say they'll allow for both passes before any downgrade and if it is close they may keep it at steady state 160 mph sustained for continuity.

[Crocodile23]

9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The shelf along the Nicaraguan coast is quite shallow, like the US gulf coast, which is why the NHC is forecasting 15-20 ft of storm surge.

Nice topography map, can you give the link for that? I guess it's for the whole world

[hawkeye_wx]

3 minutes ago, Crocodile23 said:

Nice topography map, can you give the link for that? I guess it's for the whole world

I did a Google image search and posted the graphic directly from its url.

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest recon pass is about the same.

Max flight level wind: 129 kt

Max SFMR wind: 128 kt

Low extrap pressure: 917 mb.

Iota has likely maxed out.

[Orangeburgwx]

The latest recon pass is about the same.
Max flight level wind: 129 kt
Max SFMR wind: 128 kt
Low extrap pressure: 917 mb.

Sitll a beast C4

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

[BYG Jacob]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Sitll a beast C4

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Its a category 5

[jpeters3]

6 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Its a category 5

Recon suggests only cat 4 winds at the moment.

This is what @Orangeburgwx was referring to

[Orangeburgwx]

Recon suggests only cat 4 winds at the moment.
This is what [mention=12530]Orangeburgwx[/mention] was referring to

Thank you for understanding

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[hawkeye_wx]

919 mb per dropsonde

[jpeters3]

9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

919 mb per dropsonde

3 kt surface wind.  You don't hit it more "dead on" than that!

[Morris]

14 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

3 kt surface wind.  You don't hit it more "dead on" than that!

It seems pretty clear that we have a strong cat 4, with anomalous low pressure. 

[Windspeed]

Though Eta was a beautiful hurricane, I think Iota is going to sweep the pageant for the Atlantic 2020 hurricane season. The visible presentation on this thing is just incredible.

[hawkeye_wx]

No cat 5 wind found on the last two recon passes.

[jpeters3]

5 minutes ago, Morris said:

It seems pretty clear that we have a strong cat 4, with anomalous low pressure. 

Yes.  For what it's worth, the pressure has probably ticked up a few MB since passes earlier today, which is also consistent with a slight weakening.

[Windspeed]

FWIW, Eta was a slow mover and spent a long time over that shallow shelf. Though the mix likely recovered somewhat, it's likely only around ~28°C in places at the surface. So Iota has probably reached MPI at that latitude considering the warmer upper tropospheric temperatures. At any rate, it likely won't weaken too much prior to landfall. We're still looking at a high end Cat 4 landfall at least.

[eyewall]

Honestly I hope it weakens as much as possible before landfall.

[sojitodd]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Honestly I hope it weakens as much as possible before landfall.

I agree. We all got our cat 5 now it needs to weaken(although the winds are not the problem and the surge is probably set and the rainfall will be most important) and keep up a healthy forward speed and not meander around like Eta.

 

How does Iota compare to Eta sizewise? 

[eyewall]

4:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16
Location: 13.6°N 82.7°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 919 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

This data support an initial 
wind speed of about 140 kt, although this could be a little 
generous.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

5 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

How does Iota compare to Eta sizewise? 

 

33.33% bigger

[olafminesaw]

Looks like it will be making landfall 1-2 hours before high tide tonight. Not ideal

[sojitodd]

32 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

33.33% bigger

Seriously? That is not good.

[brianc33710]

For those of you who were concerned that we would break the consecutive CAT 5 hurricane seasons, no need to worry about that now. May God be with those there though as what they got with ETA was the strength of Laura plus Sally's almost stationary motion. 

[StormChaser4Life]

That eye just got so symmetrical. This beast looks unreal on satellite right now

[WxWatcher007]

Mesovortex. Don’t think I’ve seen one in a recon image before.

[thunderbolt]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...CATEGORY 5 IOTA CLOSING IN ON NICARAGUA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

[thunderbolt]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...CATEGORY 5 IOTA CLOSING IN ON NICARAGUA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

For those who thought this was possibly weakening. Not