Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[BYG Jacob]

Jaw dropping stadium effect, in November

[ChasingFlakes]

25 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Does anyone know what the building code requirements are in Nicaragua? If there are any at all. I am kinda assuming coastal areas have at least something. 

Probably none at all.  

Puerto Cabezas:

"This impoverished Caribbean port town and ethnic melting pot sprawls along the coast and back into the scrubby pines on wide brick streets and red-earth roads, full of people and music, smiles and sideways glances.

Old wooden churches, antique craftsman homes and ramshackle slums are knitted together with rusted sheet-metal fencing, coconut palms and mango trees." https://www.womanadvance.com/travel-puerto-cabezasbilwi/

[FLweather]

Looks like the 2nd recon on the northern outskirts. Will be interesting to see what they find.

Based off of IR Iota maintaining itself. Wobbling to the Sw slightly. 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

In other words, if the eyewall makes a direct hit, anything still standing after Eta is probably going to be history.

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Looks like the 2nd recon on the northern outskirts. Will be interesting to see what they find.

Based off of IR Iota maintaining itself. Wobbling to the Sw slightly. 

 

That's a big deal for the coast of Nicaragua, if it can avoid any significant northerly motion it'll likely spare the biggest town the worst impacts (in terms of winds at least, surge will likely be very bad) 

[Cheeznado]

Puerto Cabezas is a hair north of 14 degrees latitude, so unless this jogs more north they may be spared the worst.

[olafminesaw]

 

[Orangeburgwx]

Jaw dropping stadium effect, in November

Well that gives me a new phone wallpaper

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[JakkelWx]

That satellite presentation means business

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Puerto Cabezas is a hair north of 14 degrees latitude, so unless this jogs more north they may be spared the worst.

If only the wind impacts were the only concern.

Unfortunately most destruction and death will come from mudslides and inland flooding...just an awful scenario all around.

[Windspeed]

If only the wind impacts were the only concern.
Unfortunately most destruction and death will come from mudslides and inland flooding...just an awful scenario all around.

Slopes are still saturated from Eta. Make no mistake, about as high a mudflow / lahar event as your going to see for a number of volcanic edifices and steep river gorges.

[StormChaser4Life]

Eastern and southeastern eyewall really beefed up on satellite however lightning activity has really died down from where it was. Iota may finally be leveling off. 

[Orangeburgwx]

Recon is by the Nicaraguan coast

1003mb
58kt FL
47kt SMFR

long way to the center

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[hawkeye_wx]

As the new recon plant heads into the center, the eye presentation on satellite is sharper/cleaner than it was when the last recon left.

[Orangeburgwx]

Flight location down to 995, winds up to 71kt FL, 57 SMFR

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[Amped]

10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Eastern and southeastern eyewall really beefed up on satellite 

Fighting back against the easterly shear

[Orangeburgwx]

Lot of pink popping up on that eastern side

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[SnowLover22]

I'm guessing they find 910mb. Sat presentation does look a little bit better. 

[Amped]

There's a distinct nw wobble the last hour. Not good unless that corrects

[Windspeed]

Yeah the upshear convection is impressive right now. It will be interesting to see if the SFMR winds have come up on the new passes to coincide with the pressure falls measured during the last recon mission. Then again, it may have level off to around 140 kts.

[dan11295]

Extrap pressures look to be up a few mb's 917.6 extrap. 

[SnowLover22]

Just now, dan11295 said:

Extrap pressures look to be up a few mb's 917.6 extrap. 

a blend of sfmr and flight data still supports min cat 5. 

[Orangeburgwx]

132kt SMFR... back to a strong 4

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[Morris]

173600 1327N 08207W 6987 02565 9432 +095 +047 219138 145 132 044 00

[hawkeye_wx]

Interesting that the eye has clearly improved, but the pressure is about the same.

[SnowLover22]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

132kt SMFR... back to a strong 4

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not 100% true for sure. They did not go through the strongest part of the storm typically. 

[Orangeburgwx]

not 100% true for sure. They did not go through the strongest part of the storm typically. 

SW/SE have been running stronger than the north side

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[hlcater]

The more important thing is the lack of a well defined double max on the recon data. Intensification could resume, especially with the resymmetrization and renewed cooling of the CDO. It had a bit of a hiccup this morning but now looks about as good as it ever did.

[Amped]

I stand my conclusion. This storm  got down to a ~920 160mph within a couple hours of last nights recon leaving. The intensity has been constant except for  noise ever since. .

[WxWatcher007]

First VDM

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:51Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 31 in 2020
Storm Name: Iota (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 17:34:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.53N 82.21W
B. Center Fix Location: 402 statute miles (647 km) to the S (188°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,397m (7,864ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 920mb (27.17 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 16kts (From the S at 18mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 115kts (132.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNW (337°) of center fix at 17:32:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 68° at 129kts (From the ENE at 148.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNW (337°) of center fix at 17:32:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 132kts (151.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (129°) of center fix at 17:36:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 219° at 145kts (From the SW at 166.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SE (129°) of center fix at 17:36:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 145kts (~ 166.9mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (129°) from the flight level center at 17:36:00Z