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WxWatcher007

Category 5 Hurricane Iota

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We still have to see if Eta gets a post-analysis upgrade. Remember we had the recon problems at its peak. Still could be 2 cat 5's for this season.

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The satellite presentation appears to be holding steady now.  The eyewall convection is a bit thin on the south and east sides, but the tops are cold.  Actually, the fact that the eyewall convection is a bit thin in that area should act to prevent an eyewall replacement cycle.

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How does this drop compare to what Wilma did in 2005?  This may be 2020's version of Wilma.

 

I believe that big spikey spike in the plot you linked in that Twitter post, the one in October, is Wilma, 95mb/24 hrs. You can see that it really blows everything else out of the water, no pun intended.

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Just now, TriPol said:

A category 5 huricane in the middle of November. That's just incredible. What are storm surges forecasted to be?

A never-before used Greek-named hurricane at that!

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We still have to see if Eta gets a post-analysis upgrade. Remember we had the recon problems at its peak. Still could be 2 cat 5's for this season.

I strongly doubt this upgrade, with literally no evidence (besides clearly biased RAW T) to support cat 5.


Though, if we could my egregious prediction of 882 mb for central pressure on that one, maybe they will upgrade it ^_^

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It's possible the intensity of this storm hasn't changed since an hour and a half after last nights recon left.

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Just now, TriPol said:

A category 5 huricane in the middle of November. That's just incredible. What are storm surges forecasted to be?

Catastrophic. Hopefully it moves north of that one town that got hit by Eta. This is likely to cause a tremendous death toll from inland flooding as well. Terrible terrible situation unfolding 2 weeks after a terrible situation. 

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This is one to sit back in awe over this morning. Hopefully the worst of the wind/surge impacts are felt over unpopulated areas but this will 100% be a flooding and humanitarian disaster inland. These high end storms are what brings us to these pages and cause us to refresh our computers every 30 seconds when recon is out but the devastation this storm is capable of on a poor country right after a devastating storm makes me sick 

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This is one to sit back in awe over this morning. Hopefully the worst of the wind/surge impacts are felt over unpopulated areas but this will 100% be a flooding and humanitarian disaster inland. These high end storms are what brings us to these pages and cause us to refresh our computers every 30 seconds when recon is out but the devastation this storm is capable of on a poor country right after a devastating storm makes me sick 

2020 cannot end soon enough. :( 

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Kinda funny how the predictions here were the total opposite from Eta:

Eta: "omg, it's gonna be 880 mb" "I'm calling 180 mph winds" "this one is gonna beat Wilma!"........... recon finds a moderate cat 4

Iota: "no way NHC upgrades it" "probably looking at another 150 mph advisory" "winds just don't support cat 5"............NHC cat 5

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1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Kinda funny how the predictions here were the total opposite from Eta:

Eta: "omg, it's gonna be 880 mb" "I'm calling 180 mph winds" "this one is gonna beat Wilma!"........... recon finds a moderate cat 4

Iota: "no way NHC upgrades it" "probably looking at another 150 mph advisory" "winds just don't support cat 5"............NHC cat 5

This board as a whole was humbled by that recon pass in Eta. Someone said it earlier, that was the most fun this board has ever been 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

This board as a whole was humbled by that recon pass in Eta. Someone said it earlier, that was the most fun this board has ever been 

Not to derail things too much, but I still think the Patricia passes were a bit more fun since they were so nuts.

 

 I’m thinking next pass for this storm will be around 910mb and that’s about where it settles at. May be a bit higher pressure if the EWRC starts ramping up.

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19 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We still have to see if Eta gets a post-analysis upgrade. Remember we had the recon problems at its peak. Still could be 2 cat 5's for this season.

With out a doubt. 

Roughly a week pushing 2 weeks apart. Roughly the same location . Incredible stats.

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

kinda boring cat 5

The intensity matches the T number and it's moving in a straight line. It's been so boring since that 10mb/hr pressure drop last night.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

The intensity matches the T number and it's moving in a straight line. It's been so boring since that 10mb/hr pressure drop last night.

Most boring cat 5 since Matthew.


Edit: is there a consensus on the most boring cat 5?

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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

Lol. Lorenzo was so boring that we’ve forgotten. 

oh yeah.  Lorenzo was indeed boring.  It spent like 5 seconds as cat 5?

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I think many high-end Cat 4s would likely be Category 5 statuses in today's world. Hurricane Georges, Hurricane Floyd, Hurricane Lenny. I think we just have such in-depth constant data and it comes so fast that we get more upgrades.

 

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3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

oh yeah.  Lorenzo was indeed boring.  It spent like 5 seconds as cat 5?

About the same amount of time as Michael, but only because it plowed into land.

Seriously though, it's like 2020 took all of the wx weenie's (and I include myself in that) complaints about ACE/storm and lack of quality hurricanes as a challenge for the back end of the season.

Delta: Welp that surprise shear prevented it from being the epic monster we all thought it was gonna be, probably the last big one of the season.

Epsilon: OK cool, harmless major way out in the Atlantic. A nice way to end the season. Wait, what are the models doing in the Caribbean?

Zeta: Well, didn't expect another RI-ing hurricane almost all the way to the Gulf Coast...

Eta: OMG THIS RECON PASS IS GONNA BE OFF THE CHAINS...wait...not even sub-920? WTF? Oh well, still pretty impressive for November.

Iota: ..sdflk;;jeajweo;ijeflkjsdoijoplkjfeo (keysmash)

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3 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

6th year in a row a Cat 5 has formed in the Atlantic. 

I believe it's the 5th year, starting with Matthew in 2016.

But even crazier, this could be the 4th year in a row of a Cat 5 at LANDFALL.  

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1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

I believe it's the 5th year, starting with Matthew in 2016.

But even crazier, this could be the 4th year in a row of a Cat 5 at LANDFALL.  

I think your right. Good call. 

Does anyone know what the building code requirements are in Nicaragua? If there are any at all. I am kinda assuming coastal areas have at least something. 

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10 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

I think your right. Good call. 

Does anyone know what the building code requirements are in Nicaragua? If there are any at all. I am kinda assuming coastal areas have at least something. 

Here's a picture of the city of Bluefields, which is a coastal city but much further south than where Iota is heading.  Regardless, I can't see other coastal towns looking much different.  This type of infrastructure does not look like it would do well in Cat 5 winds/storm surge.  I think the only positive would be if it hits south of Puerto Cabezas.  Puerto Cabezas looks like the only larger city in Iota's path while the rest of the coastline to the south is pretty sparse.  

Thurs-street.jpg

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