Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon is heading into the center again, probably for the final time before it has to head back.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon is heading into the center again, probably for the final time before it has to head back.

916.7mb extrapolated

[hawkeye_wx]

The final pass did not record any cat 5 wind in either the south or north eyewall.

 

[Orangeburgwx]

Possible start of a double wind maxima starting? (Slight bump on both sides of the eye wall curve)

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[LovingGulfLows]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The final pass did not record any cat 5 wind in either the south or north eyewall.

 

 

It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....

[hawkeye_wx]

918 mb from the final dropsonde.

[jpeters3]

6 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....

It's quite likely that it was above the 155 mph hump in earlier recon passes.  There are some hints in the IR of a bit of core degradation relative to the peak earlier this morning.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....

Not surprising to me. Category 5s are rare for a reason. 

[LovingGulfLows]

11 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

It's quite likely that it was above the 155 mph hump in earlier recon passes.  There are some hints in the IR of a bit of core degradation relative to the peak earlier this morning.

 

This is probably the hurricane most likely to be upgraded post analysis if they don't do it here in the next 20 minutes or so.

 

 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

This is probably the hurricane most likely to be upgraded post analysis if they don't do it here in the next 20 minutes or so.

I don't think they will, with the degradation of satellite appearance

[sojitodd]

Quote

A resident of Bilwi, a coastal town in Nicaragua, said some locals were refusing to leave their homes for fear of catching coronavirus in shared shelters.

"Some of us prefer to stay and die in our homes. There has never been a repeat hurricane in such a short time, but what can we do against the force of God and nature," Silvania Zamora told AFP news agency.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-54962005

[sojitodd]

And it's a cat 5!

 

917 160

[Moderately Unstable]

It's still marginal. One can make a relative case that the various flight level winds and pressure continue to support between 155 and 160. I agree that the appearance is a touch worse than earlier this am when it was strengthening at an astounding 10mb/hr. It's a question of whether or not they want to go with the earlier unquestionable cat 5 data or the current marginal 5 data. 

[LovingGulfLows]

 

Welp there we go.

[eyewall]

10:00 AM EST Mon Nov 16
Location: 13.5°N 82.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 917 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

[FLweather]

22 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....

140 knots that was being recorded earlier are solid  161-162mph. Truth be told there was solid 170mph that was not recorded 

[JakkelWx]

There goes another record!

[WxWatcher007]

Second strongest November hurricane on record. 

[Windspeed]

RE: Odd flight paths on last recon passes...

[sojitodd]

Quote

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

This is going to be very bad.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A century since the hyperactive 1933 season, and 2005 and 2020 15 years apart, I think something may be happening to the climate.

2017 was hyperactive. One of the worst Cape Verde seasons we've experienced as well. So technically just 3 years apart.

2012 was no picnic either.

 

[WxWatcher007]

We've had a very impressive stretch with category 5 hurricanes. 2020 keeps the trend going. 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, FLweather said:

140 knots that was being recorded earlier are solid  161-162mph. Truth be told there was solid 170mph that was not recorded 

Forecast to strengthen further

[LibertyBell]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

We've had a very impressive stretch with category 5 hurricanes. 2020 keeps the trend going. 

This was the one hurdle that 2020 had not yet jumped over, now it has.

[Floydbuster]

Wow! The first Cat 5 since.....last year.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

How does this drop compare to what Wilma did in 2005?  This may be 2020's version of Wilma.

 

[Orangeburgwx]

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[hawkeye_wx]

Despite the warming climate and flurry of powerful storms we've seen in recent years, the fact that no storms have even flirted with sub-900 mb shows how ridiculous 2005 was (two sub-900 storms, one 902).

[NorthHillsWx]

Raise your hand if you called the first cat 5 formation of the year to have occurred on November 16...

[NorthHillsWx]

Also, with the data from the first pass, I do not think this was a borderline upgrade. Pressure, FL, SFMR and sat all supported it. If it looks and quacks like a duck, it is a duck