Category 5 Hurricane Iota

[Random Chaos]

41 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The ocean heat graphic shows that Iota is now moving over a "cold" pool, so it won't be easy to maintain this intensity.

That lower HHP area is due to shallow water, not cool water. The water is still quite toasty there, with surface temperatures about 29C.

[JasonOH]

913.5 extrap. They got 143kt SFMR on the way out with max (so far) flight level of 129kt.

[Windspeed]

Only 108 kt SFMR in the ne eyewall doesn't scream cat 5.  Frankly, just looking at the satellite presentation I would guess cat 4.  It looked better a few hours ago.

Based on most recent best track, it doesn't look like the NHC is going to pull the trigger unless there is better substantial surface data. SFMR was 140kt but the flight-level/SFMR blend so far is 135kt. High end Cat 4 155 mph as is. Impressive system nonetheless. May be at peak now so Iota may not ever reach Cat 5 unless it can maintain and intensify a bit more by next recon pass.

AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 135, 921

[FLweather]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Since daybreak..

Moving S/Sw ever so slightly. 

[csnavywx]

914.4 913.5 extrap in there. Prob 918/919 now. Still falling rapidly.

[Windspeed]

914.4 extrap in there. Prob 918/919 now. Still falling rapidly.

That may do it right there. Wind would still be increasing due to ongoing pressure fall. The NHC knows this so they may go ahead and upgrade to 140 kts now.

[hawkeye_wx]

Interestingly, this pass found 108 kt SFMR in the ne quad and 143 kt in the sw quad.  One would expect those to be flipped with a westward-moving storm.

[Moderately Unstable]

Or they may do it at 10am, when their next update is. Do they issue special advisories for upgrades? They didn't do that for the cat 4 designation. 

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

914.4 extrap in there. Prob 918/919 now. Still falling rapidly.

 

That may do it right there. Wind would still be increasing due to ongoing pressure fall. The NHC knows this so they may go ahead and upgrade to 140 kts now.

Yeah, that with the couple of high-end unflagged SFMRs may be enough. We're getting into rarefied air with these pressures.

[JakkelWx]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Interestingly, this pass found 108 kt SFMR in the ne quad and 143 kt in the sw quad.  One would expect those to be flipped with a westward-moving storm.

You can see why, perhaps: a weakness, maybe, in the NE eyewall per microwave pass

[Windspeed]

Interestingly, this pass found 108 kt SFMR in the ne quad and 143 kt in the sw quad.  One would expect those to be flipped with a westward-moving storm.

The western eyewall has consistently had the most explosive CBs rotating around the southern semicircle through the morning hours. But interesting data for sure.

[dan11295]

They didnt find any higher FL winds on that last pass, but multiple unflagged 140kt+ SFMR plus continued pressure drop should be enough IMHO.

[cheese007]

Didn't expect to wake up to a borderline Cat 5 this morning

[hawkeye_wx]

In the sw quad recon just found the one 143 kt SFMR reading, but flight level only in the 120s.  The SFMR supports cat 5, but the flight level does not.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

A century since the hyperactive 1933 season, and 2005 and 2020 15 years apart, I think something may be happening to the climate.

[Windspeed]

A century since the hyperactive 1933 season, and 2005 and 2020 15 years apart, I think something may be happening to the climate.

2017 was hyperactive. One of the worst Cape Verde seasons we've experienced as well. So technically just 3 years apart.

[Orangeburgwx]

2017 was hyperactive. One of the worst Cape Verde seasons we've experienced as well. So technically just 3 years apart.

Seemed like everything that formed out there went major that year

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[Windspeed]

[Orangeburgwx]

916 ON THE SCONDE!

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[FLweather]

2nd air craft recon in route to Iota.

Left MS a short while ago.

[JakkelWx]

AL, 31, 2020111612, 03, OFCL, 3, 136N, 820W, 140, 921, HU

[Orangeburgwx]

AL, 31, 2020111612, 03, OFCL, 3, 136N, 820W, 140, 921, HU

140

That's ballgame, NHC gonna have to go 5

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[Windspeed]

By the time the next recon reaches Iota it may very well be past peak or in the throws of an ERC. So if we don't get the upgrade with current data, we likely won't get an upgrade at all. I think there is enough data, especially the pressure data, to go ahead and do the deed. It's not a hard sell or that it's questionable though SFMR can be. I'd like to have had higher SFMR readings but it's close. We shall see...

[JasonOH]

The drop was 920mb with 33kt. Air Force just went with 920mb for VDM. I think pressure is probably closer to 918mb.

[Windspeed]

The drop was 920mb with 33kt. Air Force just went with 920mb for VDM. I think pressure is probably closer to 918mb.

[jpeters3]

9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

916 ON THE SCONDE!

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Looks like this was a sonde that terminated prior to reaching the surface.  Lowest sonde measured pressure was 920 (as indicated by @JasonOH's post).

[sojitodd]

Iota is extraordinarily beautiful on satellite presentation.

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

By the time the next recon reaches Iota it may very well be past peak or in the throws of an ERC. So if we don't get the upgrade with current data, we likely won't get an upgrade at all. I think there is enough data, especially the pressure data, to go ahead and do the deed. It's not a hard sell or that it's questionable though SFMR can be. I'd like to have had higher SFMR readings but it's close. We shall see...

I agree they really should do a special update or something to acknowledge a cat 5.  If it warrants a cat 5 it should be acknowledged, especially since "cat 5" will make anyone in the path of it even more likely to take any and every precaution, and they will expect a cat 5 surge, which they will likely get even if it weakens at this point.

[jpeters3]

Just now, sojitodd said:

Iota is extraordinarily beautiful on satellite presentation.

I agree they really should do a special update or something to acknowledge a cat 5.  If it warrants a cat 5 it should be acknowledged, especially since "cat 5" will make anyone in the path of it even more likely to take any and every precaution, and they will expect a cat 5 surge, which they will likely get even if it weakens at this point.

Regardless of whether there is an upgrade right now, I think there is enough data (i.e. multiple > 140 kt unflagged SFMR, pressure < 920 mb) for a post-season upgrade.

[Crocodile23]

Very beautiful(and dangerous unfortunately) regardless of cat 5 upgrade or not.

[FLweather]

Just now, sojitodd said:

Iota is extraordinarily beautiful on satellite presentation.

I agree they really should do a special update or something to acknowledge a cat 5.  If it warrants a cat 5 it should be acknowledged, especially since "cat 5" will make anyone in the path of it even more likely to take any and every precaution, and they will expect a cat 5 surge, which they will likely get even if it weakens at this point.

Right. 140knt winds is a solid cat 5.

But even with the 2nd air craft coming in. I dont really see any EWRC happening.  It's just getting stronger by the time of arrival of the 2nd aircraft.