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WxWatcher007

Category 5 Hurricane Iota

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Discuss. Another potentially significant system in the blazing hot Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Eta, located near the coast of the southeast U.S., and on 
Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to 
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system 
has changed little in organization this evening, a tropical 
depression will likely form within the next couple of days as it 
moves slowly westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. 
Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should closely monitor the 
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this 
disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible 
flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so. 
For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your 
local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

QyrUs8T.png

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27 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Nothing to see here...just the Caribbean deciding to act like the WPAC in friggin' November...

Remember when 2020 was meh, kind of a busy season but there wasn't enough ACE?

 

remember-in-midaugust.jpg

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Atlantic looking like a Frat house out there right now. Theta Eta Iota, Atlantic University chapter,  is throwing an end of the year house party in the Atlantic. 

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Looking at the environment present over the W carib at the time 98L is moving through, I'm not really seeing any reason that this shouldn't become a formidable hurricane. Especially seeing as the overall environment is as good or better than Eta's. With consensus 850-200 shear being near or below 15kts for the next 4-5 days. TCHP isn't as nuclear as it was earlier in the season, but with surface temps ~29C, shouldn't provide much of an issue. I don't even need to bring up the 200mb pattern in the Caribbean this year, because you already know it's just stellar. Really the only thing models are consistent with that may be a limiting factor here is some mid level shear maximized ~500mb that gets up to 15-20kts at times, but even then, if that's the only problem, shouldn't really inhibit intensification. Greek names have been carrying this year and 98L looks to be no different.

gfs_uv200_watl_15.png?width=982&height=6

2020al98_diagplot_202011130000.png

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This looks straight up depressing for Nicaragua even if it were to slip NW. That's going to be another 72 hrs of floods and mudslides over areas already digging out of the aftermath of Eta.

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Tropical Depression Thirty-One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1100 AM EDT Fri Nov 13 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated
since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows
that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly
component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge
of the primary convective mass.  Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the
convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be
classified as a tropical depression.  The initial wind speed is set
at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications.

Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea 
surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification 
over the next few days.  Given the current broad and sprawling 
structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today, 
but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening 
appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not 
show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h 
period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance 
(nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in 
wind speed over the next 72 hours.  As a result, the NHC forecast 
calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time 
period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America 
as a major hurricane in a few days.  The NHC track forecast at days 
4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the 
track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at 
that time.  If a more northern track occurs, the system could be 
stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water.

The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic
should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24
hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding
eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin.
On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the
coast of Central America in 60-72 h.  The track guidance is in good
agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing
cross-track spread after that time.  The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a
track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while
the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected
consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it
approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches
will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical 
Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding 
and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central 
America.  Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be 
significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway 
after Hurricane Eta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.2N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 14.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 13.8N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 13.9N  77.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 14.1N  79.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 14.5N  80.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 14.9N  82.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 15.2N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  18/1200Z 14.7N  88.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Upgrade to Tropical Storm. NHC now forecasting a Major Hurricane.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 132044
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the
cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the
overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve.
Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of
light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was
displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible
satellite imagery.  Since the system is still in its formative
stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level
feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the
low- and mid-level circulations.  The earlier ASCAT data indicated
peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated
vectors.  Based on the continued increase in organization,
and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial
intensity is raised to 35 kt.  Iota becomes the 30th named storm of
the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season.

The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive
for intensification.  The system will be moving over warm waters,
in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical
wind shear.  As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears
likely over the next few days.  The NHC intensity forecast calls
for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for 
the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of 
Central America.  The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement 
with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in 
intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 
kt increase in intensity during that time period. 

The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial 
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt.  A strong 
mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western 
Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days 
causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or 
west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better 
agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track 
farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  The latest 
consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, 
and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were 
required.  


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it 
approaches the coast of Central America.  There is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. 
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area 
tonight or early Saturday.

2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to 
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions 
of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America.  Flooding and landslides 
from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America 
given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 13.8N  74.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 13.7N  75.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 13.7N  76.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 13.9N  77.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 14.2N  79.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 14.6N  81.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 15.0N  82.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 15.2N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  18/1800Z 14.7N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

204653_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Looking forward to the next meaningless rapid intensification record to be broken

Looking forward to another distraction from mainstream news for a week or  two!!

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Of course this will NOT turn into the Gulf. Also, NOT that anything is impossible in 2020.
image.thumb.png.a639ecbdfb9da967bf254b56c41c7f25.png
EPS and GEFS have literally every member mirroring each other

Only one ensemble on each escapes it NW, and that is only if the ridge cracks and there is a center relocation. Everything else drives it due west

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I know it would be highly unlikely to end up in the Gulf. Just that Eta is so fresh in my mind. Remember on October 30 we were wondering if it would even become a hurricane. And the track consensus was mostly in agreement. See below, October 30:

image.thumb.png.325a24061fdb40aa9011de2ea136346b.png

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I know it would be highly unlikely to end up in the Gulf. Just that Eta is so fresh in my mind. Remember on October 30 we were wondering if it would even become a hurricane. And the track consensus was mostly in agreement. See below, October 30:
image.thumb.png.325a24061fdb40aa9011de2ea136346b.png
Kinda funny how those Eta tracks mirror Iota... And we see how that turned out...

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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Kinda funny how those Eta tracks mirror Iota... And we see how that turned out...

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Compare to Iota, which tracks farther north than Eta did:

image.thumb.png.207282e792421ff924742e31f8019729.png

............................................................

EDIT: Believe me, I am not wishcasting Iota to hit FL. It will take a few days for my poor old back to stop aching from cutting through a small tree to make a path in our back yard and picking up Eta debris on Thursday morning. ;)

 

 

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Still 40mph TS at 11... could be MH in 60 hours per disco though 

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past
several hours.  Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands
around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there
is a dry slot.  All of the satellite intensity estimates are
around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that
value.

Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past
several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become
more pronounced soon.  A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge
currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and
build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Since this ridging is
expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the
next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the
forecast period.  The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to
the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However,
conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast
before the center arrives.  The latest models are in fairly good
agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
This forecast is a little slower than the previous one.

An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west
and dissipate on Saturday.  This should leave the storm in favorable
conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear
and high moisture this weekend and early next week.  These
conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until
Iota makes landfall.  The main question is how strong will Iota
become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification
Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more
before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological
mean.  The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one,
and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it
approaches the coast of Central America.  There is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches
will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will
likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding
and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by
Hurricane Eta's recent effects there.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 13.6N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 13.5N  74.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 13.7N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 14.0N  77.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 14.3N  79.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 14.5N  81.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 14.7N  82.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 14.8N  85.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/0000Z 14.3N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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