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November Discobs 2020


George BM
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Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A very active long-term period, with many surges of tropical
moisture into the region, which could lead to some flooding
issues by the end of the week.

On Wednesday, a persistent upper-level ridge remains centered
over the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong ridge of
high pressure remains just off the Carolina coast. Elsewhere
though, several additional features will help to bring rain to
the region. First, an upper trough well off to the northwest
into Canada, which will have an accompanying area of surface low
pressure. A cold front will be draped south through the Ohio
Valley and slowly move east throughout the day. Second, what is
now Tropical Storm Eta will be meandering in the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface high off the Carolina coast, paired with this cold
front, which extends all the way down into the deep south, will
act to funnel in tropical moisture. Could see record setting
PWATS (2 inches or more) across the region, as dew points are
expected to reach near 70. Lastly an upper level jet will be
positioned nearby, putting our area in a favorable synoptic lift
zone Wednesday into Thursday. All of this being said, heavy
rain is anticipated late Wednesday into Thursday across the
region. As is often the case with storms systems with so many
moving parts, the exact placement of the heaviest rain is still
a bit up in the air, as well as amounts. But it seems plausible
that this could be quite the heavy rain event. Additionally,
with unusually high dew points and increasing shear and jet
dynamics, could see a threat for severe weather. The extent of
any thunderstorms and severe threat will be dependent at least
in part on how much instability there is, which may be modest.
Temperatures remain well above average, with highs in the mid
60s to low 70s and overnight lows near 60 overnight Wednesday.

There may be a brief lull in precipitation Thursday night into
early Friday. However, another surge of tropical moisture is
expected later Friday into the early part of the weekend.
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday likely back closer to
normal, with highs back into the 50s. Overnight lows likely
remain above average though with the presence of rain and the
tropical air mass in place.

More significant trough will finally sweep through into early
next week, but more on that in the coming days, as details
become more clear. This should act to push this air mass out of
here, and perhaps be followed by a less active pattern.

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri

 

 

This is super common for *checks notes* November..... lol

In a year of crazy weather, the hits keep on coming. Enjoy the rain. Wish we could get some of that over here, but every shortwave cuts to the north and all lift is over AMA. We are hung out to dry...literally. Oof 

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42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Foggy

Hopefully more needed rain hits the mark here . Then back to fall weather by early next week it appears. 

This string of mid 70s days has worn out its welcome. At least get back closer to average. Been foggy here every morning under this massive upper ridge.

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Took a tower down this weekend, felt like working in early Sept.  Sheesh, don't remember this kind of warmth in first week of November since 1982.  That "Indian Summer" was hot too, I dropped a hollowed out oak and just below where my bar went through was a void with 3 baby squirrels.  I'm no fan of the pesky rodents but I could not stop thinking of the sheer terror they must have felt being perhaps 1/2" at best below a chain whipping by at over 60 mph slinging oil around!

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Remember this is the only the first month of our new season: NOVEMBER. We are in November/November. The season of NOVEMBER runs through November/April. We have six months of NOVEMBER ahead of us.

Probably wont actually feel like November until January. 

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3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Remember this is the only the first month of our new season: NOVEMBER. We are in November/November. The season of NOVEMBER runs through November/April. We have six months of NOVEMBER ahead of us.

Yeah I call it "the dark" when the trees are bare, no gardening, and it's usually dreary, and snow is very rare most years anyway.  I'm going to have to fix that when I retire in 5 years because 5-6 months of dark is way too much.

But man is today beautiful!

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I’m tired of record warmth, but we had two cold November’s with awesome patterns in a row and it netted me 1.5” of snow. Both then flipped to raging December torches. Looks like we at least get semi-seasonal starting this weekend. The pattern doesn’t show much sign of changing, but I’m not sweating that until early-mid December at least. 

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m tired of record warmth, but we had two cold November’s with awesome patterns in a row and it netted me 1.5” of snow. Both then flipped to raging December torches. Looks like we at least get semi-seasonal starting this weekend. The pattern doesn’t show much sign of changing, but I’m not sweating that until early-mid December at least. 

Just a WAG, but based on the current climate models. extended GEFS(and I will throw in the most recent 2 Nina winters), Jan may be our best shot at some legit cold chances with a possibility to time something. Given the SPV state and the QBO trend, hard to be enthused about any real help in the AO/NAO regions, beyond some transient ridging passing through the NAO domain that probably won't help at all. CFS has been consistent with a -EPO for at least part of Jan, and that may be our best opportunity for some decent cold air delivery at this point.

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