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Tropical Storm Eta


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Looking at this Eta is definitely on the eastern side of the track and strengthening.  I got a friend in Cape Coral told him to batten down the hatches. Naples to Cape Coral Fort Myers up to Sarasota needs to pay very close attention.  I would say Tropical Storm Warnings could be replaced by Hurricane warnings at 11 pm. 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA 
AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida
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Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a 
better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar.  Satellite 
pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large 
cluster of deep convection near the center.  Radar data has shown 
increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports 
conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt.  The 
current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming 
some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data 
on both the initial position and intensity.

It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- 
northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, 
but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt.  Remarkably, model 
guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous 
forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve 
around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into 
the western Atlantic Ocean.  The biggest change is that the models 
are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that 
lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just 
east of the model consensus.

Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains 
low-to-moderate.  However, all of the models do show increasing 
shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for 
weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida.  
However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to 
come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been 
issued this morning.  Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes 
landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the 
western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than 
the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer 
to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along 
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to 
Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 
Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local 
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west 
coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early 
Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday 
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to 
Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to 
Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast 
should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and 
warnings may be needed today.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and 
South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North 
Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban 
flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially 
across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West 
Florida through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 25.0N  84.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 26.4N  83.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 27.9N  83.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 29.2N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0600Z 30.2N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 30.9N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 31.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Just upgraded to Hurricane Eta 

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
735 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data 
indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the 
southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75 
mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts. 


SUMMARY OF 735 AM EST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma.  Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees.

Just getting into the initial bands here this morning.

 

E0623C25-8A10-4DB8-A731-C4E70E7512AF.png

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9 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma.  Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees.

Just getting into the initial bands here this morning.

 

E0623C25-8A10-4DB8-A731-C4E70E7512AF.png

This will be the most impactful system since Josephine in 1996. 

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1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Moderate rain right now with wind picking up. I just dropped my wife at school (teacher), expecting Pinellas County Schools will close early today.

Little rain and breezy in Tampa right now.  Hillsborough schools have the day off today thankfully.   I can tell you that the area has had next to zero prep for any sort of major weather.  With the way nearly every single GC storm has attempted intensification on approach this year, I’m concerned for folks along the coast.  

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27 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma.  Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees.

Just getting into the initial bands here this morning.

 

E0623C25-8A10-4DB8-A731-C4E70E7512AF.png

Here in Pinellas County, Irma brought us tropical storm winds with a few hurricane gusts on the coast. Our power went out at our home in Gulfport with 39 mph winds. It was off for two long weeks. We lost two oak trees from our front yard with that storm.

A direct hit with a respectable TS and we'd have a mess.

Will do some prep today like taking down bird feeders, wind chimes, putting outside potted plants in somewhat protected areas, etc.

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Just now, Prospero said:

PINELLAS COUNTY

In an abundance of caution, ALL Pinellas County Schools will have early dismissal today, Wednesday, Nov. 11 and will be closed tomorrow, Nov. 12. Today’s dismissal times: High Schools: 10:00 a.m. Elementary Schools: 11:00 a.m. Middle Schools: 12 noon

Not surprising. Schools close now for a light breeze. I remember in my day...  lol

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59 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Grew up loving snow days! LOL

Hillsborough County Schools closed Thursday and Friday so the schools can be shelters.

Hope sheltering does not create a further issue with Covid.    
 

i am concerned with the flooding from this storm. Does anyone know how the expected ETA in the Tampa Bay region matches up with the tide? 

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7 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Hope sheltering does not create a further issue with Covid.    
 

i am concerned with the flooding from this storm. Does anyone know how the expected ETA in the Tampa Bay region matches up with the tide? 

High tide at midnight, should be close to max storm impacts.  We’re under a 2-4ft surge warning.  As you know much of Tampa is prone to flooding from BAU heavy rainfall.

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4 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

High tide at midnight, should be close to max storm impacts.  We’re under a 2-4ft surge warning.  As you know much of Tampa is prone to flooding from BAU heavy rainfall.

I can’t imagine Davis Island would do go well from a direct hit, even if it’s from a TS. The rain/surge will have bigger impacts 

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