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Tropical Storm Eta


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13 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Actually, I think it is a classic case of a sub-tropical hurricane at this point. That's why the impacts are happening at such a large radius, and why it's intensifying without much central convection.

True last few frames of IR are telling. 

As far as Hwrf is concerned....

Has there ever really been a case like this? Or is this some 2020 weird shyt.

Globals decay this storm for the most part. But hwrf has it at a solid cat2.

Idk if I ever remember a storm going from tropical to subtropical back to tropical. 

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15 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

sustained tropical storm conditions here now 

sustained at 42 with gusts to 51 in rain band that’s moving in now 

Just south of you in Jupiter. This is the most consistent and highest wind of the day for sure. We had a coupe good ones late morning with a lull. Much more consistent now.

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There's still plenty of convection, it's just occurring in the bands north of the center. This is what sub-tropical systems look like. 

There are extremely powerful squalls in that convection, looks like it'll be on the SE FL coast within a couple hours. We could get hurricane force gusts from those. 

In the meantime we are getting constant tropical storm gusts and light-moderate rain.

I do wonder how NHC will react to these changes though. I don't think a sub-tropical transition was exactly what was expected. 

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Precisely... this puts SE FL in the prime spot this evening through tomorrow morning for Hurricane force wind gusts. 

It should be noted that although the latest 
model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida 
Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur, 
well to the north and east of the center.
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1 minute ago, finatic jason said:

Probably worth a mention that we have thankfully had very unimpressive rainfall amounts so far. I hope it continues. The back of my property just finished drying out from all the rain in October.

I got 1.56 inches yesterday and am up to 2.81 inches today.  Not gonna get the 10-15 like some forecasts were calling but I can see getting another couple inches through midnight and then another one or two tomorrow on the backside, totaling 6-8 inches overall in three days. 

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2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

So is this post tropical as the experts advised?

No...

Foremost experts are the NHC and they have it as a tropical storm to minimal hurricane for at least the next five days.

INIT  08/2100Z 23.9N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 24.7N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.6N  83.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 24.0N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 25.1N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 25.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 27.1N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 29.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

No...

Foremost experts are the NHC and they have it as a tropical storm to minimal hurricane for at least the next five days.


INIT  08/2100Z 23.9N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 24.7N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.6N  83.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 24.0N  85.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 25.1N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 25.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 27.1N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 29.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

Who would have guessed the NHC had a clue of what they were talking about!

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Reporting from the (slightly elevated) ground of coconut grove - wind consistently in the 30s (probably bursts above that but seems like more of an event further north from what I’m reading here) and wet, but no lightning strikes or thunder of any sort. 

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Tampa Bay/Gulfport:

Gust to 39 mph at the Sunshine Skyway Bridge fishing pier, 41 mph at Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach. We've had several gusts around 33 mph here in Gulfport. It's been windy for well over 24 hours.

No measurable rain to speak of, but we are quite a bit north right now. We do expect some later tonight as there is a band on the radar that could make it here.

So far it's not the strongest storm of the year for us, but watching closely in case it does strengthen and turn back to the Gulf Coast in a few days.

It does have that "feel" that we all know so well in tropical system areas.

 

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27 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Tampa Bay/Gulfport:

Gust to 39 mph at the Sunshine Skyway Bridge fishing pier, 41 mph at Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach. We've had several gusts around 33 mph here in Gulfport. It's been windy for well over 24 hours.

No measurable rain to speak of, but we are quite a bit north right now. We do expect some later tonight as there is a band on the radar that could make it here.

So far it's not the strongest storm of the year for us, but watching closely in case it does strengthen and turn back to the Gulf Coast in a few days.

It does have that "feel" that we all know so well in tropical system areas.

 

Could get a little dicey around here Thursday into Friday. That's from Tampa following the I4 corridor into Orlando. According to the Hwrf.

Edit. Still breezy.  But winds have dropped a little since the sun went down. 

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Just now, FLweather said:

Could get a little dicey around here Thursday into Friday. That's from Tampa following the I4 corridor into Orlando. According to the Hwrf.

 

That's what we are keeping in the back of our minds in my home. Hoping Eta does not fire up in the Gulf like it did before hitting the Mosquito Coast. I doubt that will happen, but a TS could be visiting.

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4 minutes ago, Prospero said:

That's what we are keeping in the back of our minds in my home. Hoping Eta does not fire up in the Gulf like it did before hitting the Mosquito Coast. I doubt that will happen, but a TS could be visiting.

Same thoughts here.

But its 2020 and probably also on Friday the 13th.

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Powerful deep convection, the deepest convection in the whole system, is firing in a band north of the center, and this feature will hit the SE FL coast. This band may have the most powerful winds in the entire storm. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Already the conditions out there are solidly tropical storm force, with lots of wind and torrential squalls moving through very often. 

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9 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Powerful deep convection, the deepest convection in the whole system, is firing in a band north of the center, and this feature will hit the SE FL coast. This band may have the most powerful winds in the entire storm. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Already the conditions out there are solidly tropical storm force, with lots of wind and torrential squalls moving through very often. 

Looks to angle itself right into Broward County, so the cams in downtown FTL, Dania Beach Pier, & Hollywood Beach are going to get really good.

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5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Powerful deep convection, the deepest convection in the whole system, is firing in a band north of the center, and this feature will hit the SE FL coast. This band may have the most powerful winds in the entire storm. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Already the conditions out there are solidly tropical storm force, with lots of wind and torrential squalls moving through very often. 

Wonder how much longer the LLC will hang on before opening and broadening?

Looking at IR, the Northwest shield is growing.  

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