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Tropical Storm Eta


Windspeed
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Entries now closed. Final predictions:

 

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb X --> 900/160kts

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt X--> 913/150kts

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt X--> revised: 170-175kts

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt X --> revised: 897mb/160kts

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

Floydbuster: 922mb/140kt

BYG Jacob: 913mb/145kt X --> 895mb/160kts

That Hurricane: 904mb/160kt

CatLover014: 919mb/145kt

Orangeburgwx: 919mb/140-145kt

tiger_deF: 890mb/160kts

Normandy: 883mb/160kts

WxWatcher007: 912mb/148kts X revised: 903mb/155kts

Hawkeye_wx: 916mb/140kts

NorthArlington101: 907mb/150kts

SRRTA22: 908mb/150kts

USCAPEWEATHER: 896mb/165kts X --> 885mb/175kts

Amped: 895mb/160kts

pdm44: 901mb/155kts

Prospero: 911mb/160kts

BuffaloWeather: 906mb/140kts

Stebo: 915mb/145kts

OKTWISTER: 932mb/140kts

Wild Weather Monger: 901mb/160kts

Louieloy102: 903mb/150kts

LakeEffectKing: 899mb/150kts

wxmx: 885mb/165kts

Jim Marusak: 935mb/140kts. 

hlcater: 901mb/150kts

Calderon: 902mb/155kts

OSUmetstud:  890mb/155kts

NavarreDon: 903mb/155kts

jojo762: 887mb/155kts

BlueDXer: 899mb/165kts

 

Calculation of consensus:

Mean: 905.85mb/ 152.7kts

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0.  We are at 8.4 on eta right now.

Wow. Eta is definitely highlighting the problem with the CI number needing to be spooled in. ADTv9 has it clamped at 1.3T/6hr so it can't catch up with the raw value quickly enough.

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My hands are going to fall off. This is more enthusiasm than the actual season prediction got. 

 

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Wow. Eta is definitely highlighting the problem with the CI number needing to be spooled in. ADTv9 has it clamped at 1.3T/6hr so it can't catch up with the raw value quickly enough.

No. This is an algorithm thing. Earlier for example it was capped at 0.7T/6hrs. Other times there are no constraints. CIMSS varies what rules they use based on a slew of decision trees (computer calculated).

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