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Tropical Storm Eta


Windspeed
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Honestly this has probably been a Cat 5 most of the evening upon completion of whatever internal structural change earlier. I don't think that was necessarily an ERC. Perhaps the very intense bursting [all that lightning was occurring for a reason] was interrupting the eyewall. Essentially strong updraft anvils were spilling over into the eye filling it. MW never really supported any concentric feature. Now is perhaps more of a concentric pattern on the most recent radar than perhaps ever in its life cycle, but it is pretty spread away from the present core.

 

 

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Just now, Windspeed said:

Honestly this has probably been a Cat 5 most of the evening upon completion of whatever internal structural change completed. Ibdon't think that was necessarily an ERC. Perhaps the very intense bursting [all that lightning was occurring for a reason] was interrupting the eyewall. Essentially strong updraft anvils were spilling over into the eye filling it. MW never really supported any concentric feature. Now is perhaps more of a concentric pattern on the most recent radar than perhaps ever in its life cycle, but it is pretty spread away from the present core.

Just need recon to beat the ERC. Nobody should expect to wake up tomorrow morning to the present eyewall situation. Couple good passes then let this thing implode from its own wild energy. 

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1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

(1) Entries are allowed until the aircraft is "in storm": within the storm's circulation. Assuming this radius to be 150mi, at a speed of 240knots, they have around a half hour. 

(2) Should I allow guess updates (yes or no)?  

Why not. It's not over until the fat airplane sings.

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