Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: I direct hit on the only population center in the area would be unfortunately, luckily not a whole lot of other population centers in that area. Hopefully most of the fain falls in the swamps. Hopefully Puerto Cabezas rebuilt stronger after Felix and might be lucky enough to be on the south side of the storm so the wind and surge will not have much impact. No chasers will be there I am sure. And news will take a while to get to us. So landfall will be all about sats and estimates. Maybe some weather updates, but we may not even see those. Of course the floods in the mountains and subsequent mud slides are a nightmare always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Amped said: ETA made a big turn to the south the last few hours. Not making much progress towards the coast at this point. Probably not good because only gives it more time to strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 More NSFW porn from Dakota Smith... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Stunning IR imagery of ETA this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Newman said: Stunning IR imagery of ETA this evening. People were talking WPAC earlier today but to me this screams SWIO, just flipped. It looks like the type of system that should be in the Mozambique Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Pretty noticeable wobble SSW. Could be a trichoidal motion due to an outer band but most recent MW wasn't really that definitive of an closed outer band or concentric feature. Of course recon would have been helpful here too. At any rate, interesting motion. Is it stalling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Clearly at its peak right now. Also, the recon plane is back up in the air and headed south over the gulf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Clearly at its peak right now. Also, the recon plane is back up in the air and headed south over the gulf. seems like there is a legit chance it can get a few passes in before landfall, assuming it does not turn back. for what its worth, HWRF seems to think this is a current 930mb storm with it getting down to 925mb before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Might be a troichoidal wobble, but in general its westward motion has stopped/stalled for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Clearly at its peak right now. Also, the recon plane is back up in the air and headed south over the gulf. Cruising speed of these aircraft are ~320-340 mph. They have about 1200 miles to get there, so roughly 4 hours. Might be enough time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 (1) Definitely not a typical atlantic presentation. Absolutely off the charts impressive in every way. Yeah, could be at home in the indian. Amphan-esq. Though it morphed a bit, I think it had more wpac flavor earlier on. I am a bit at a loss for words. (2) http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png (3) EDIT: Finally got an ASCAT pass over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 It looks absolutely stunning right now. Eta wins Miss/Mr Photogenic Hurricane for this season as far as I am concerned. It is both beautiful and very foreboding at the same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, Windspeed said: At any rate, interesting motion. If this stays out over the water...oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Heard a hurricane hunter is enroute now. Eta looks absolutely impeccable on satellite now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Cruising speed of these aircraft are ~320-340 mph. They have about 1200 miles to get there, so roughly 4 hours. Might be enough time! Going to be close. HMON HWRF start weakening after 3z, but still have a cat4 at 6z. It may get close to CAT 5 between now and 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Well, lol, the plane is certainly booking it, given that it's currently moving at a brisk 375 knots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Raw T just jumped to 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Well, lol, the plane is certainly booking it, given that it's currently moving at a brisk 375 knots. That should shave off an hour from my estimate! Satellite presentation is the best so far, supported by Raw T values. FWIW: T 7.1 as a post-processed value would equate to a 140 kt cat 5. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, jpeters3 said: That should shave off an hour from my estimate! so they fly slower than commercial airlines it seems. Is that a correct take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, SnowLover22 said: so they fly slower than commercial airlines it seems. Is that a correct take? They’re propeller driven so yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: That should shave off an hour from my estimate! Indeed. I just did a bit of research, it has a top speed of 411 knots, which is actually very fast for a turboprop. Normal cruise is 328 knots. Something tells me they're trying to make up for lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanotheruser Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: They’re propeller driven so yea The props are 4000hp each... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: Indeed. I just did a bit of research, it has a top speed of 411 knots, which is actually very fast for a turboprop. Normal cruise is 328 knots. Something tells me they're trying to make up for lost time. Is the AF aircraft a C-130? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: Is the AF aircraft a C-130? No its the upgrade, the WC-130 J Hercules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Is the AF aircraft a C-130? Well, I looked up the specs for a P-3. C-130's top out at 320 knots, so to get to 375 knots in a C-130 you need a strong tailwind. I'll go check. If they're flying a 130 I'm a little confused. Edit: USCAPEWEATHERAF is correct. Standby need to lookup the speed table for that now. I was giving the noaa plane speeds, apologies. Edit: Data says it has a 362 knot maximum speed. Clearly it's exceeding that. Regardless, faster than 320. To boil down all of this stuff--I think it's going to take em 3 hours based on the distance, and the point of my message is, they're maxing out the speed. That reduces range due to fuel eff reduction but probably not by too much and worth it at this point to get the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Its a four turboprop engine plane, all 4000 HP for a total of 16000 hp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Prospero said: Hopefully Puerto Cabezas rebuilt stronger after Felix and might be lucky enough to be on the south side of the storm so the wind and surge will not have much impact. No chasers will be there I am sure. And news will take a while to get to us. So landfall will be all about sats and estimates. Maybe some weather updates, but we may not even see those. Of course the floods in the mountains and subsequent mud slides are a nightmare always. Well they already had a deadly mudslide in El Salvador on October 29th that killed at least ten people. The cause is listed as excessive rainfall on already saturated soil. I don't know how saturated the soils in the overall area are though, but it could be very bad I imagine. *I just happened to see this when looking at a landslide blog I view occasionally ... it is an interesting blog and I am sure it will have an in depth account of any landslides or debris flows caused by Eta. Hope it alright to post a link here: https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanotheruser Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Its a four turboprop engine plane, all 4000 HP for a total of 16000 hp brb swapping a civic with one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The WC-130 J Hercules known as the Super Hercules was an upgrade over the original C-130 which the Coast Guard uses now. The C-130 J is also used for other operational procedures in the AF, just not the 53rd WRS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: Well, I looked up the specs for a P-3. C-130's top out at 320 knots, so to get to 375 knots in a C-130 you need a strong tailwind. I'll go check. If they're flying a 130 I'm a little confused. Just looked it up. Looks like it's a C-130. I guess they attached the rocket booster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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