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Tropical Storm Eta


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16 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Is this not kind of the trend for science this year? Deny facts, discourage data, ignore science?

We'll just learn to live with bigger stronger more unpredictable hurricanes. Why not? Right?

Can't have climate change when you ignore the existence of the climate

 

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Lol, we don't know what the issue is. It could be an instrument failure, it could be that someone on the crew came down with covid and the entire crew had to quarantine and they had to clean the plane. We *don't* know what the cause was. Flights are not cheap...so, no, it's a big cost, but that isn't the point. The pentagon has basically unlimited money so the problem here is not financial. They have flown a ton of missions this year into tons of storms. I used to study aviation bc I wanted to be a pilot. I can say with certainty that while aircraft are designed to handle weather, they aren't designed to fly regularly through strong hurricane eyewalls. Stuff breaks. Maybe the dropsonde mechanism failed. They did a dropsonde test shortly after getting over the water and right after they turned around. That's not normal. The mslp data stopped reporting after around 45 minutes, maybe that sensor failed. They could have had an engine failure, a pressurization failure, a warning indicator in the cockpit. Point is: a lot of stuff can happen. If the crew's safety is at risk, or the mission can't measure something it needs, they can't go. It isn't monetarily related and it isn't because they aren't trying. There are only so many crews to do these flights--they can't have everyone on duty at one time because then, no one would be available for the next flight. That said, at this point, if I were the nhc, I would call up a noaa plane if I could. I'm not them though and I'm confident they have good reasons. Remember that most places in the world don't get a flight into the eye...they just get satellite imagery and have to guess. We're spoiled in the atlantic. No one flew into Goni or Haiyan, yet somehow scientists were able to estimate the winds anyway. I know some of the experts in this field...they're good at what they do, and I trust them with or without a plane. I just *want* a plane because it would be helpful for storm structure, model guidance, track guidance, and pure weenie-ness. 

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This is the best storm presentation this season, I can say that. 

7 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is.

It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon?

image.png.14667859a34845a7fe453f9ed5124ef9.png

Sandwich info:

 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/documents/SandwichProduct.pdf

 

Summary: 

-It is a "sandwich" of both visible + IR imagery. It is useful during the daytime. 

-It allows you to better visualize both the top, and lower layers, of a storm rather than just one or the other. 

 

Edit: Answer to your question:

As with any other temp-based IR, different colors correspond to different cloud temperatures, and thus heights and intensities of updrafts. As you know, hurricanes are collections of tstorms. So, you have a few regions which will overshoot the others. Perfectly normal. 

 

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Relax people, life will go on if a recon doesn't get into the storm before landfall.  It's not like we don't know where it's going, and that it's probably going to be a shitshow on the ground underneath where it makes landfall.  It's also not like a few missing recon missions will crush future research efforts into TCs.  So relax....

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6 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is.

It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon?

image.png.14667859a34845a7fe453f9ed5124ef9.png

Those are just extreme thunderstorms with very high tops

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3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Relax people, life will go on if a recon doesn't get into the storm before landfall.  It's not like we don't know where it's going, and that it's probably going to be a shitshow on the ground underneath where it makes landfall.  It's also not like a few missing recon missions will crush future research efforts into TCs.  So relax....

I think everyone wants to know the true intensity etc though.

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7 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This is from the "Sandwich" view. I have no idea what that is.

It is the only view I see that has anything weird in this otherwise perfect storm. Clusters of bright red spots in a dark spiral. What is the meteorological description of this phenomenon?

image.png.14667859a34845a7fe453f9ed5124ef9.png

Hoping the eye will warm a little more. It can do better than -55c

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

I think everyone wants to know the true intensity etc though.

Right, i mean even I do.  But people on this forum act like it's a massive travesty to science and forecasting that is going to cost lives.  In reality, it's just a weenie travesty.

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Eh, I don't think most people based on what I've read the last few pages think it's a life-threatening situation to lack the plane. I think most folks, understandably, want one. I *do* think it's more than weenie-ness: those flights are actually quite useful to the nhc, and for our models to provide better forecasts, so they aren't just for fun, but I think all of us think this is the strongest storm of the season and as such, we want to know if it'll make cat 5, or where it is as a cat 4. Wilma had a 9 mile eye that contracted down to 2 nm at peak strength. I did see a couple comments talking about scientific research and you're right...research won't be adversely impacted. Obviously it will be if someone was going to do a case study of this particular storm but not in the grand scheme of hurricane research. 

To explain the sandwich thing a bit more, @Prospero, when you get into the land of crazy measurements, either with radar or satellite, you eventually run off the end of the color scale. That's what you're seeing there basically. Those are actually overshooting -90 or colder tops. You can overlay lightning on them at weathernerds.org to confirm that. Remember that lightning indicates charge separation, frozen water droplets, and strong updrafts...things you see in strong tstorm cells. 

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

You can stare at this all day but I see the collapse of a nano sized eyewall and the emergence of merely a micro sized eyewall. But maybe that’s just me seeing what I want to see...

Crazy thing is, I could stare at that all day. ;)

Edit; This better though...
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-sandwich-200-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

 

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I am racking my head trying to think about how to best communicate risk with people in Nicaragua. This is going to be a horrific disaster. There's just so much going on right now that it's probably not going to make the news and thus get the donations and aid they will need. Also it looks like everyone forgot about Felix vis a vis strongest landfalls. Governor Saavedra has just issued the following tweet:

 

#Urgente El huracán ETA solo va a afectar a los puchitos. No vamos a declarar alerta nacional. Es solo agua y viento y el país no se puede parar, hay que activar la economía. Ya las 317 personas que iban a ser evacuadas lo fueron. Nadie corre peligro.

 

 

Translating: 

24m
#Urgent Hurricane ETA is only going to affect a small number of people (literal translation: small people). We are not going to declare a national alert. It is only water and wind and the country cannot be stopped, the economy must remain active. The 317 people who were to be evacuated have been. No one is in danger.

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Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

I am racking my head trying to think about how to best communicate risk with people in Nicaragua. This is going to be a horrific disaster. There's just so much going on right now that it's probably not going to make the news and thus get the donations and aid they will need. Also it looks like everyone forgot about Felix vis a vis strongest landfalls. Governor Ortega has just issued the following tweet:

 

#Urgente El huracán ETA solo va a afectar a los puchitos. No vamos a declarar alerta nacional. Es solo agua y viento y el país no se puede parar, hay que activar la economía. Ya las 317 personas que iban a ser evacuadas lo fueron. Nadie corre peligro.

 

 

Translating: 

24m
#Urgente Hurricane ETA is only going to affect the puchitos. We are not going to declare a national alert. It is only water and wind and the country cannot be stopped, the economy must remain active. The 317 people who were to be evacuated have been. No one is in danger.

Great, Baghdad Bob is now in Nicaragua.  Just what we need.

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Today's recon planes were not going to tell us much we don't already know.  No lives in Nicaragua will be saved/lost because recon finds, or doesn't find, the exact pressure.  It's just a major bummer, as weather/science geeks, we aren't getting the exact details for one of the two best storms of the year, especially one with a pinhole eye that makes it more difficult to guess the exact strength.  This latest recon, which flew into the gulf but then turned around, would have been into the storm this evening during peak intensity.

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7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Today's recon planes were not going to tell us much we don't already know.  No lives in Nicaragua will be saved/lost because recon finds, or doesn't find, the exact pressure.  It's just a major bummer, as weather/science geeks, we aren't getting the exact details for one of the two best storms of the year, especially one with a pinhole eye that makes it more difficult to guess the exact strength.  This latest recon, which flew into the gulf but then turned around, would have been into the storm this evening during peak intensity.

So are we now not going to get an actual data now before landfall?

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