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Tropical Storm Eta


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As I said a few hours ago, lots of lightning can signal an ERC. This is a small eye. Look at the cloud tops outside the eye, see the secondary eye there? The guidance yesterday suggested an erc could happen. If an erc occurs, the storm will re-strengthen again. ERCs take several hours usually to complete. 

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23 minutes ago, Normandy said:

One interesting trend I am seeing today is this is diving southward further east.  Not sure if it has any implications on future track (perhaps a pro met / knowledgeable poster can chime in)

Some models have shown a south dive and stall, or even a lift back north a hair, before once again turning west into Central America.

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1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said:

It isn't weakening

Tomer, who is frequently linked here from twitter and is well respected, also agrees that it may be past its peak so it’s not exactly a hot take that it has come down somewhat from where it was. 

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5 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

You're right, but the storm has 24+ hours to go. They have 4 flights scheduled not all with the same division. There is a 0% chance of not having another plane in before landfall. I know what you mean in terms of hoping they don't have more tech issues--I am in the same camp. More just saying, it would be absolutely shocking if they didn't actually send another one in. Nhc would ask noaa hunters and air force to go at same time so that if one had an issue we still got the data.

 Chances seems substantially higher than 0% now. The issues with recon this year are beyond frustrating. 

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Yeah, I am frustrated as well. I used to know Tomer. Smart kid. God I miss having potential. Anyways, I agree that the pattern of issues we've had recently with recon is disappointing. Smh. Also I did mention earlier that the moment this thing looked worse than perfect we'd have posters on here saying it's over. And wham bam they are. Could it be? Sure. Does that make ANY sense based on physics? No. Not at all. ERCs are common. Intensity fluctuations are common. The storm has a long time to go, and the *trend* given the environment is *up*. I do think we missed out on a potential historic data point by missing an in situ measurement. The lack of aircraft data is killing me. This storm isn't going to weaken any time soon. Don't worry folks, there's plenty of time to be excited by good appearances and then worried when it looks worse again for another 18 hours or so *grabs popcorn*.

 

Edit: can someone ask the NOAA hurricane hunters to give it a go? 

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Just now, eyewall said:

The loss of recon at the key moment is terrible and certainly bad for future research efforts.

Is this not kind of the trend for science this year? Deny facts, discourage data, ignore science?

We'll just learn to live with bigger stronger more unpredictable hurricanes. Why not? Right?

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