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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.[43/54].          Making it 44degs.,  or just Normal.

Month to date is 53.9[+4.2].      Should be about 50.8[+2.8] by the 27th. 

The GEFS Extended is still a vast winter time weather wasteland.       We get near the current lows again only near the 29th., 07th, and 17th.    It runs into the start of winter.      Absolutely no Snow for this 30 Day+ period either, not a T showing.     Would make 338 days w/o measurable snow, if correct.

32*(53%RH) here at 6am[low was 31* at 12:30am].      35* by 8am.       37* by 9am.      40* by 11am.         41* by Noon.       43* at 1pm.        46* at 2pm.          48* at 3pm.        46* by 9pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Overnight low temperatures included: Boston: 22°; Bridgeport: 25°; Danbury: 18°: Islip: 22°; New York City: 30°; Newark: 26°; Philadelphia: 30°; Poughkeepsie: 18°; Westhampton: 15°; and, White Plains: 22°

After a very cold start, sunshine will send temperatures rebounding. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 49°

The week should end with above normal temperatures.

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This has to be the best radiational cooling that we have seen in such a warm November. ISP just tied the record low for 2 consecutive days. Notice how much higher the max departure than the min. ISP had 3 consecutive daily record highs earlier this month.

Max...+5.1

Min...+1.6

Avg...+3.3

 

11/18 24 in 2020 24 in 2014 25 in 2017+
11/19 22 in 2020 22 in 2014 23 in 1997


 

11/7 74 in 2020 67 in 1975 67 in 1971
11/8 76 in 2020 70 in 2011 68 in 1975
11/9 74 in 2020 73 in 1975 71 in 1994
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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to be the best radiational cooling that we have seen in such a warm November. ISP just tied the record low for 2 consecutive days. Notice how much higher the max departure than the min. ISP had 3 consecutive daily record highs earlier this month.

Max...+5.1

Min...+1.6

Avg...+3.3

 

11/18 24 in 2020 24 in 2014 25 in 2017+
11/19 22 in 2020 22 in 2014 23 in 1997


 

11/7 74 in 2020 67 in 1975 67 in 1971
11/8 76 in 2020 70 in 2011 68 in 1975
11/9 74 in 2020 73 in 1975 71 in 1994

The air must be very dry. 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

The air must be very dry. 

Yeah, drier air and light winds on the mornings with the best radiational cooling. Even when we had the record highs earlier in the month, the diurnal temperature range was close to the high desert of Nevada in September. We had several days with light winds, high pressure, lower dew points, and low air quality. This is what happens with the record 500mb ridging this month over the area. Also notice how strong the polar vortex has been in the Arctic.

81A0D274-CC1C-4901-9924-427839338076.gif.2e109df58fe188866ffa536c6e071922.gif

 

 

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Near record 30 hr November temperature jump coming for Friday. Places that were in the low 20s this morning will be near 60° Friday afternoon. So a 35 to 40° temperature rise.

 

KISP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/19/2020  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  39  59| 45  61| 39  54| 50  58| 34  46| 35  58| 47  57| 41 34 50

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=30&month=nov&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png


94CCAA4B-C202-4E43-87D7-EB65C92BCCD2.png.f21790f226d022c3dd60f4ec275fe2ff.png

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Near record 30 hr November temperature jump coming for Friday. Places that were in the low 20s this morning will be near 60° Friday afternoon. So a 35 to 40° temperature rise.

 


KISP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/19/2020  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  39  59| 45  61| 39  54| 50  58| 34  46| 35  58| 47  57| 41 34 50

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=30&month=nov&dir=warm&dpi=100&_fmt=png


94CCAA4B-C202-4E43-87D7-EB65C92BCCD2.png.f21790f226d022c3dd60f4ec275fe2ff.png

Didn't you guys get in on those big temp swings in the same day last week?

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28 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Didn't you guys get in on those big temp swings in the same day last week?

Thanks for reminding me to run the 6 hr temperature rise numbers. That’s when we had a diurnal range similar to the high desert in Nevada during September. It tied the 6 hr biggest November temperature jump. There was a 44° low between hours with a total jump of 32°. But the data plotter below only works with the hourly temperatures. 

FE370A96-EC88-459E-A568-A0AB64CE7A47.png.c42038eb3ae39ab1d731ce1bc253e685.png

 

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks for reminding me to run the 6 hr temperature rise numbers. That’s when we had a diurnal range similar to the high desert in Nevada during September. It tied the 6 hr biggest November temperature jump. There was a 44° low between hours with a total jump of 32°. But the data plotter below only works with the hourly temperatures. 

FE370A96-EC88-459E-A568-A0AB64CE7A47.png.c42038eb3ae39ab1d731ce1bc253e685.png

 

 

Up here between 11/4-11/10 the diurnal range was 36-40 with the exception of 11/6 when it was only 33, pretty impressive for around here.

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11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Up here between 11/4-11/10 the diurnal range was 36-40 with the exception of 11/6 when it was only 33, pretty impressive for around here.

Yeah, similar to Elko, Nevada in late September.

28F55571-E888-4682-A834-C7433A75500C.png.0d1e5de480c9e02caacc42a379037f9a.png

 


 

Almanac for Elko Area, NV (ThreadEx)
September 27, 2020
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 72 74 91 in 2010 43 in 1923
Min Temperature 34 35 51 in 1989 13 in 1889
Avg Temperature 53.0 54.2 67.5 in 1989 38.0 in 1999
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On 11/17/2020 at 9:44 AM, bluewave said:

This has to have been the hardest decade on record for trees around the region. It seems to have started out with the March 2010 windstorm. This was followed by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Next was the early snowstorm in October 2011 which lead to all the power outages. Irene came next in August 2011 followed by  Sandy in October 2012. Then the numerous blizzards with downed trees at times from 2013 to 2018. Along with the fall and spring storms with high wind warnings. Out of season severe in recent years like this fall and also 2018. We also saw that bow echo in June 2019 take down numerous trees across Suffolk. Isaias caused the extensive tree damage and power outages this summer.

The 17 year ciccadas finished off 3 large old oak trees and a plum tree IMBY. They survived a few years but the damage was done.

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