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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to be weird. The typical strong Nina caveats may not play out either due to differences in the Pacific & Atlantic vs typical Nina years. 

We’ll probably have a better idea as we head toward December. If the polar vortex strengthens toward December, that could provide a strong clue as to the likely predominant state of the AO.

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Today saw more widespread near record and record warm temperatures. High temperatures included:

Albany: 72°
Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1975)
Atlantic City: 79° (old record: 72°, 1975, 2009, and 2011)
Baltimore: 78°
Boston: 70°
Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 71°, 1975)
Burlington: 72°
Chicago: 76° (old record: 73°, 1931)
Cleveland: 77° (old record: 72°, 1879, 1881, and 1945)
Detroit: 73° (old record: 71°, 1915)
Harrisburg: 75°
Hartford: 75°
Islip: 76° (old record: 70°, 2011)
New York City: 75°
Newark: 77° (old record: 76°, 1975)
Philadelphia: 76°
Pittsburgh: 74°
Providence: 75° (old record: 73°, 1945)
Poughkeepsie: 76° (old record: 73°, 1975)
Washington, DC: 74°

In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, the above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +13.36.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.195.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.229 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.047.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This record ridge with lower dew points and light winds is setting up an unusual temperature pattern for us. We get record highs during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. Quite a departure from our typical record warm minimums.


7967177C-DC4B-446D-8FF3-0E9E4F674433.png.f0fdbfb5d6befbceed07444718b066fe.png



762CF603-1F63-433C-99FB-A0C038C06881.png.c38721a8530536441f38dbcee9ef7952.png

 

Yeah Ive noticed the range of low temps has been big and not just the usual radational cooling spread. NYC and LGA mornings will be around 60, but even close, fairly urban sites like EWR are in the 40s. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This record ridge with lower dew points and light winds is setting up an unusual temperature pattern for us. We get record highs during the day and strong radiational cooling at night. Quite a departure from our typical record warm minimums.


7967177C-DC4B-446D-8FF3-0E9E4F674433.png.f0fdbfb5d6befbceed07444718b066fe.png



762CF603-1F63-433C-99FB-A0C038C06881.png.c38721a8530536441f38dbcee9ef7952.png

 

perfect weather, I was getting sick and tired of the high humidity and high mins.  I see someone developed a machine to squeeze the moisture out of the air and turn it into drinking water?  We need to do that en masse around here.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.[54/65].         Making it 55degs., or +7.0.

Total rain through next Monday PM:      GFS 2.0", EURO 2.5", CMC 3.0"

Possible BN days in the next 16 days:, the 14, 18, 22.      Separated and iffy.

57*(63%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     60*(60%RH) by  9am.     65*(57%RH) by Noon.       68* at 1pm.     70* at 1:30pm, but 69* at 2pm.      68* at 2:30pm and seems like fog wants to move in.      67* at 3pm.      66* at 4pm      64* at 4:30pm

Tropics:    24.8N  82.1W, to the westside of Florida Keys.

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10 hours ago, dWave said:

Yeah Ive noticed the range of low temps has been big and not just the usual radational cooling spread. NYC and LGA mornings will be around 60, but even close, fairly urban sites like EWR are in the 40s. 

This is our first 591 dm ridge during the month of November.

3CA9C111-7C2B-4710-A13F-30B2BCC204D3.thumb.jpeg.c0bff72ab47f0ae63544baa7fa6a2b80.jpeg

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 75°

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions reamins underway. After midweek, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive. As moisture from Eta gets drawn northward along an approaching frontal system , the region could experience a significant rainfall later Wednesday through Thursday.

Finally, Needles, CA picked up 0.03” rain yesterday. That ended Needles’ record 210-day streak without measurable precipitation. The previous record was 204 days.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. We that -pna the temps will cool quickly. With the Pv currently strengthening and unfavorable mjo I don’t see this changing for a while 

Yep and it looks like a strong GOA vortex develops, those warm SST anomalies there and off the west coast are going to drop in a hurry. Good call on your part

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. We that -pna the temps will cool quickly. With the Pv currently strengthening and unfavorable mjo I don’t see this changing for a while 

Yeah, pretty impressive PAC Jet extension should maintain this -PNA SE Ridge pattern until further notice.

8690EDBE-B867-4212-AAFC-F14CEA3F48A7.thumb.png.e11abfd471be46819f193fb1392ed7a8.png

 

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there have been ten winters that produced less than 10" of seasonal snowfall in NYC since 1868-69...1996-97 had exactly 10"...I lived through six of these winters...here they are by the numbers...

season.....snowfall...1" snowfalls...

1972-73........2.8"........1.8"

2001-02.......3.5"........3.0"

1918-19........3.8"........1.3" 1.4"

2019-20.......4.8"........2.1" 1.3"

1931-32.......5.3"........2.0" 1.1"

1997-98.......5.5"........5.0"

2011-12........7.4"........4.3" 2.9"

1877-78........8.1"........7.0" 1.0"

1988-89........8.1"........5.0" 2.6"

1900-01........9.1"........1.8" 4.0" 1.5"

.......................................................

season.....ave temp/relative to decade coldest temp...

1972-73........35.8.......33.7..+2.1....................7

2001-02.......41.5........35.2..+6.3..................19

1918-19........36.6........32.0..+4.6..................10

2019-20.......39.2........36.7..+2.5..................14

1931-32........40.1........34.0..+6.1...................15

1997-98.......39.6........36.4..+3.2..................14

2011-12........40.5........36.6..+3.9..................13

1877-78........33.3........31.5..+1.8....................7

1988-89.......35.9........34.9..+1.0....................5

1900-01........31.7.........32.0..-0.3....................4

................................................................

season.....precipitation ...

1972-73........15.17"

2001-02.........4.91"

1918-19........10.96"

2019-20.......11.56"

1931-32.........9.59"

1997-98........15.28"

2011-12..........8.60"

1877-78..........8.89"

1988-89.........6.45"

1900-01..........4.22"

..............................................................................

1972-73 had the least amount of snowfall with above average precipitation...Mild/wet...

2001-02 was second with very little precipitation...It was the warmest winter on record...Mild/dry...

1918-19 was third withy two 1" March snowfalls...precipitation was slightly below...Mild...

2019-20 was the fourth worst ...

1931-32 was fifth and was the second warmest ever...2" snow in November...Mild/dry...

1997-98 was wet and mild...5" March snowfall...wettest of them all...Mild/wet

2011-12 similar to 2001-02 but with an October snowstorm...

1877-78 had one snowstorm...was milder than the 1870's average...Dry as well...Mild/dry

1988-89 had two snowfalls over 2"...was very dry...was milder than the 1980's average...mild/dry...

1900-01 had three 1" snowfalls...was colder than the 1900's average...was the driest...cold/dry...

..............................................................................................................................

 

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16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Anyone fishing? Going out tomorrow for striped bass. 

Fate will bless you with a successful trip, Allsnow. You jogged a memory. The last time I fished for and caught a striped bass was aver 50 years ago. I was with a work buddy who, as opposed to me, was an expert fisherman. It was a rather mild October night and he said the strippers would be running up the Hudson. He took me to the Spuyten Duyvil metro north railroad station. 1979 was a different time so we walked across unfenced track beds and electrified rails and arrived at the most unattractive stretch of garbage strewn shore I’ve ever seen. The rats were so plentiful that it made the Willard movie look like a Disney classic. My friend was a degreed environmentalist. He told me to just gently kick out your foot and the rats would scatter. He said we, to them, were rats too big to mess with, it took me a while to pick up on the irony. He and I rigged up and then came the bait. Soft shell crabs, tied around a rather large hook. He used a special string and I’ll damned if I remember the name of it, I believe the tide was incoming. He told me get a bit closer to the waters edge but to be mindful of the slippery moss on the wet rocks. He said you do not cast out. You just gently plop the line a few feet from shore and let the hook settle in the rocks. He said the strippers will sense the bait go for it and your hook and he was right. Not a minute after I did as instructed a stripper took the bait. Surprised and elated, I took a miss step, forgot about the moss and became briefly airborne landing amongst a swarm of Willards relatives. Apparently they didn’t like Italian food so they scattered. I held on to the pole for dear life. My friends concern for my fall was only overshadowed by his uproarious laughter. I managed, listening to his patient instructions, to land it. It was 20 to 24 inches I believe. Several more were caught that evening. Since river pollution was extreme at that time he gave me some professional advice. He said look at the fish, in the light, if you detect a red/orange sheen throw it back, it’s contaminated. A greenish sheen is what you want to see. Sure enough half the catch was thrown back. I remember bringing it home to my beautiful young wife and she being the typical servile Italian spouse said sweetly to me. Get that thing out of my kitchen, take it to your mother and ask her to deal with it. I did and my mom made a stuffed stripe bass I will never forget. My lost Vicenza knew she could not prepare it the way my mom could so she actually, with love, gave me the easy way out. To this day I will never forget how wonderful that meal was. My apologies for the length of the memory. I may be invited, by the Moderators, to join the S19 limit club but mine will be for words. As always ....

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

Air quality is bad. Air quality alert...and not just the more common "unhealthy for sensitive groups" level, but Unhealthy for everyone. 

Otherwise..sunny 76, calm wind

Pretty impressive to go 4 consecutive days with average wind speeds of 5 mph or lower. Be interesting to see if the fog that @forkyforkmentioned on the NAM verifies. Could be quite dense if the winds remain calm under the inversion.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=71&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&year=2020&month=11&units=MPH&dpi=100&_fmt=png

B4FE0F51-E474-464C-9D04-04886FCB2CFF.png.7b7ae39e84a0e00336a3a2fa86b2c145.png  

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