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November 2020 temperature forecast contest -- and winter snowfall predictions


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Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2020 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and add your snowfall predictions for the usual nine locations we use

(for ATL, IAH and PHX we substitute DTW, BUF and BTV). 

The snowfall predictions can be added any time during November, I will start to message people around mid-month to get them all in.

Good luck. 

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.7      0.3       0.6       2.5      2.0     0.9         0.3      1.0       1.1

 

Snowfall 

DCA: 4.4"

NYC: 8.5"

 BOS: 20.0"

 ORD: 31.6"

 DTW: 38.0"

BUF: 78.9"

DEN: 55.5"

 BTV: 66.6"

 SEA: 5.1"

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA  DTW   BUF    BTV  

1.0      0.5       0.5       0.5      1.0     1.5      0.0       1.0      0.0    n/a     n/a      n/a 

  15"     25"      40"      50"      n/a     n/a     75"       n/a     3"      40"      125"    90"

          

 

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Table of forecasts for Nov 2020

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith ____________ +4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5

BKViking _______________ +2.4 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 ___ +0.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.6

wxallannj _______________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.8

RJay ____________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

Tom ____ (-2%) __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ --0.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ___ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.5


Consensus ______________+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6

 

Don Sutherland.1________+1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.7 ___ +3.6 _ +3.5 _ +2.1

Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 _________+0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _+1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.3

RodneyS _______________ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.1

wxdude64 ______________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 ___ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.4

 

Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

______________________________________________________________________

warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue ... Normal is colder for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and (tied) IAH.

snowfall forecasts can be added to your post or submitted separately, up to mid-month, will signal a deadline. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

First look at anomalies and projections ...

____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th ____ (anom 10d) ______ +4.0 _ +6.3 _ +4.5 __+12.9 _+4.5 _ +2.2 __ +10.5 _ +4.0 __ 0.0 

21st ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.7 _ +3.8 _ +2.9 __ +7.9 _ +4.4 _ +3.5 ___ +7.9 _ +4.0 _ +0.7

11th ____ (anom 20d) ______ +3.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 ___ +7.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 

11th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +2.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 

21st ____ (anom 30d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 ___ +5.0 _+3.5 _ +3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 __ 0.0

29th ____ (anom 30d) ______ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 ___ +7.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0

_____ final anomalies _______+4.7 _ +5.2 _ +3.2 ___ +7.1 _ +4.9 _ +3.7 ___ +5.4 _+3.7 _ +0.9

================================================

This month I plan to update only around the 20th and end of month anomalies. 

As of the 11th, the month had started out quite warm in the west and changed to colder than normal a few days ago. The record-breaking warmth then spread into the central and eastern states. Anomalies were largest in the Great Lakes region (STL not in our contest had an anomaly of +8). Projections are based on a much less pronounced warmer than average middle third and a slightly warmer final third for most regions. There will be anomalous cold at times in the upper Midwest, plains states and interior Pac NW, but it will be shallow and its intrusions further south will be moderated quickly. 

Next update 21st. ... Those who would still like to join the winter snowfall contest can post or edit up to then, with reminders going out to no-shows, then a table of forecasts will mark end of entries. 

21st _ Looking quite mild across the southeast, Gulf coast, more variable further north to end of month. Some decrease likely in most of the current large positive anomalies. 

29th _ Have edited in the new projections as of today. These include CFS to 28th and climate data for 29th, model projections for 30th. Provisional scoring will follow shortly. 

1st Dec _ Editing in the final anomalies as they appear, and updating the scoring tables already posted (scores now final as of 1030h EST).

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Final scoring for November 2020

-- based on the final values posted above (tracker post), these are the scores for Nov 2020.

* Tom's small late penalties are shown with asterisks per point lost, mostly 1 pt, one instance of 2 pts.

-- no minimum progression invoked for low scoring locations as one raw score always above 60.

-- a reminder, when actuals are > 5.0 anom, scoring differentials drop to 1 point so for ORD at +7.1 scores

for forecasts 0.0 to 2.1 get same number of points as forecast units of 0.1, then two points from 2.1 to 5.0, 

had any forecasts been 5.1 to 7.1 those would have lost scoring points at 1 per 0.1 also. (but none were).

-- DEN and NYC have finished just slightly into the 5+ range, ATL was +4.9 and DCA +4.7 (see previous post

for the final anomalies). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west _ TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ____________ 96 _ 84 _ 84 __264 __ 73 _ 86 _ 86 __ 245 __ 511 __ 00 _ 16 _ 52 __ 068 _____ 579

BKViking _______________ 54 _ 44 _ 80 __ 178 __ 06 _ 44 _ 56 __ 106 __ 284 __  40 _ 60 _ 94 __ 194 _____ 478

RJay ____________________46 _ 38 _ 76 __ 160 __ 20 _ 22 _ 26 __ 068 __ 228 __ 36 _ 66 _ 78 __ 180 _____ 408

Don Sutherland.1________26 _ 20 _ 56 __ 102 __ 13 _ 10 _ 40 __ 063 __ 165 __ 68 _ 96 _ 76 __ 240 _____ 405

wxallannj _______________ 46 _ 48 _ 70 __ 164 __ 14 _ 28 _ 34 __ 076 __ 240 __ 20 _ 46 _ 66 __ 132 _____ 372

hudsonvalley21 _________22 _ 18 _ 52 __ 092 __ 04 _ 16 _ 50 __ 070 __ 162 __ 28 _ 70 _ 92 __ 190 _____ 352


Consensus ______________32 _ 22 _ 56 __ 110 __ 10 _ 26 _ 44 __ 080 __ 190 __ 14 _ 48 _ 94 __ 156 _____ 346

 

RodneyS _______________ 20 _ 04 _ 48 __ 072 __ 29 _ 42 _ 44 __ 115 __ 187 __ 03 _ 46 _ 96 __ 145 _____ 332

Tom ____ (-2%) _________ 35*_ 22 _ 55*__112 __ 00 _ 33*_ 43*__076 __ 188 __ 06 _ 47*_90**_ 143 _____ 331

Scotty Lightning ________ 26 _ 08 _ 46 __ 080 __ 05 _ 22 _ 56 __ 083 __ 163 __ 00 _ 46 _ 82 __ 128 _____ 291

wxdude64 ______________14 _ 10 _ 54 __ 080 __ 02 _ 12 _ 42 __ 056 __ 136 __ 00 _ 42 _ 90 __ 132 _____ 268

 

Normal _________________06 _ 00 _ 36 __ 042 __ 00 _ 02 _ 26 __ 028 __ 070 __ 00 _ 26 _ 82 __ 108 _____ 178

_______________________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

All but SEA have the warmest forecast in play, and all are outright wins.

DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and IAH will be heading to Roger Smith for 6 wins, BOS was close but the last minute warm sector

pushed the outcome to +3.2. Most of these outcomes other than BOS were higher than the high forecast by a degree or so.

DEN and PHX are going to Don Sutherland with high forecasts there, outcomes also a bit higher than forecasts.

SEA went to the fourth highest forecast for high score, so is the only non-qualifier this month. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Will post the annual update after these scores confirmed, but apparently the race has tightened up considerably -- almost everyone in the hunt gained a bit on the contest leader RodneyS. My previous total was too far back for this month to bring me into that mix (had the west worked out as well as the east, different story). But at least I am leaving Normal in my dust. 

However, the annual scoring update shows that the big contest now is for second place. A review of the December entries shows that RodneyS has an insurmountable lead as the forecasts he filed for December are relatively close to those of his nearest competitors, scoring differentials are not close to providing any potential for the field to pass RodneyS so congrats in advance. About six people are in contention to finish second and the forecast differentials are large enough to make the outcome suspenseful. 

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< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Nov) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > >

Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. 

Posting this slightly ahead of final values which won't change much ... so December forecasters can see where they stand. Good luck !

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

 

RodneyS ___________________728_ 746838 __2312 __646 _660_742__2088 __4400 __724_715_768_ 2207 ____6607

Don Sutherland.1 ___________688 _756_798 __2242 __597 _654 _756 __2007 __4249 __526_764_716_ 2006 ____6255

RJay _______________________726 _749 _737 __2212 __592 _672 _709 __1973 __4185 __636_700_718_ 2054 ____6239

hudsonvalley21 ____________623 _712 _813 __2148 __543 _636 _783 __1962 __4110 __585_772_751_ 2108 ____6218

___ Consensus _____________630 _686 _821 __2137 __521 _648_788 __1957 __4094 __572_747_754_ 2073 ____ 6167

BKViking __________________ 623 _687 _786 __1996 __549 _593 _753__1895 __3891 __621_772_806_ 2199 ____ 6090

wxallannj __________________662 _756 _813 __2231 __471 _647 _768__1886 __4117 __568_691_698_ 1957 ____6074

Tom _______________________627 _670 _779 __2076 __478 _681 _740__1899 __3975 __559_732_699_ 1990 ____5965

Scotty Lightning ____________540 _530 _658 __1728 __454 _649_822__1925 __3653 __506_670_734_ 1910 ____ 5563

Roger Smith ________________564 _605 _704 __1873__559 _709 _736__2004 __3877 __ 558_522_530_ 1610 ____5487

wxdude64 __________________523 _561 _666 __1750__451 _560 _766__1777 __3527 __ 528_697_630_ 1855 ____5382

___ Normal _________________414 _432 _564 __1410 __382 _571 _662__1615 __3025 __448_522_ 694_ 1664 ____4689

Brian5671 _ (8/11) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313

JakkelWx _ (7/11) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748

yoda _ (4/11) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098

rclab _ (1/11) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250

dwave _ (1/11) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292

Maxim _ (1/11) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182

Rhino16 _ (1/11) _____________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 ___ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178

==============================================================================

Extreme forecast standings January to November

76 of 99 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 53 for warmest and 23 for coldest.

FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov _ Standings to date

Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 6-0 _ 17-3

RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 _ ---- _ ---- __ 13-4

RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 _ 2-0 _ ---- _ 12-0

Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- __ ---- __ 11-2

DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- _ 0-1 _ 2-0 __ 10-1

Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 _ 2-0 _ ---- ____6-1

Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ ---- ____ 5-2

Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- ____ 4-0

yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 _ 2-0 _ ---- ____ 4-1

RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ____ 2-0

wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ____ 2-0

Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ____ 2-0

wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ ---- ____ 2-1

hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ____ 1-0

================================================================================

 

BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to November

Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. 

Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than total of months best scores, also, if Normal or consensus

achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. From Oct to Dec, high scores are always given

among regular annual entrants when "occasional" entrants take high score awards. (* marks these)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months

RodneyS _________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep

DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 2*____2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2*____1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr

RJay _____________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3*___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul

hudsonvalley21 ___________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1*___Oct*

BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0

___ Consensus ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

wxallannj _________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Tom ______________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*_____0

Scotty Lightning __________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0

Roger Smith ______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2 __ Aug.Nov

wxdude64 ________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

_____ Normal _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr

Brian5671 ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0

Jakkelwx _________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

Yoda _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 ___ Oct

RClab ____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

____________________________________________________________________________________

* includes one win in this category among regular entrants only (Yoda had higher score).

... this rule only applies in fourth quarter of season. ... not retroactive. 

 

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Update on Four Seasons contest -- Final Results

This contest tracks your seasonal performances. Ten points are awarded to top total score in each season,

then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points for 2nd-7th, and 1 point for anyone else who enters all three contests. This table

shows the points awarded in the winter, spring and summer segments, followed by total points for the three

autumn months (Sept, Oct, Nov) then the contest points generated. The table order is total points for the contest. 

 

FORECASTER __________ Winter, spring, summer pts __ Autumn totals __ Autumn pts ___ TOTAL POINTS

RodneyS ____________________ 10 _____ 6 _____ 4 _______ 1844 ____________10 ____________ 30

BKViking _____________________ 6 _____ 2_____ 7 _______ 1827 _____________ 7 ____________ 22

DonSutherland 1 ______________5 ____ 10 _____ 2 _______ 1698 ____________ 4  ____________ 21

RJay _________________________ 1 _____ 5_____10 _______ 1725 ____________ 5 _____________21

hudsonvalley21 _______________4 _____ 7 _____ 6 _______ 1693 _____________3 ____________ 20

______ Consensus ____________ 5 _____ 5 _____ 6 _______ 1706 _____________ 4 ____________ 20

wxallannj _____________________7 _____ 3 _____ 3 _______ 1645 _____________2 ____________ 15

Tom __________________________3 _____ 4_____ 5 _______ 1635 _____________ 1 ____________ 13

Roger Smith __________________ 1 ______1 ____ 1 _______ 1761 _____________ 6 _____________ 9

Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 _____ 1_____ 1 _______ 1556 _____________ 1 _____________ 5

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 _____ 1_____ 1 _______ 1549 _____________ 1 _____________ 4

_________ Normal _____________ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 _______ 1379 _____________ 1 _____________ 4

Brian5671 ____________________ 1 ______1 ____ 1 _______ ------ ______________ -- ______________3

Jakkelwx _____________________-- ______ -- ____ 1 _______ (710) ____________ 1 ______________ 2

_________________________________________________________

(note Jakkelwx only entered one of three contests, other part time entrants not scored

but he played all three in summer to earn a point there so I added a point for partial scoring).

Congrats to RodneyS for winning the Four Seasons portion of the annual contest ...

BKViking made a move to reach second place, three more all from NYC are closely bunched in tie for 3rd

(Don Sutherland 1 and RJay then hudsonvalley21 in 5th). 

 

 

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