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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

39F Overcast and undercast

Foliage started early this year and then slowed way down.  A surprising amount of leaves on my property.  Don't need a birch bender so a part of me wants this to stay south.  Plenty of snow chances later in the season

 

birch.jpg

Definitely some good photo ops if you get and inch or two though.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big improvement on the 12z NAM....that looks really good for tomorrow morning.

Not to blow smoke at the assessment ... but, I did mention yesterday that the complex interaction between the diabatic thief in the night, Zeta  ( kitchy ) may be playing havoc with the stream dynamics during mechanical phasing.... I think the whole Zeta thing ( frankly ) would have done this thing the better if the f'er just wasn't part of it... Or, fully sucked in...But this bi-pass thing I think was screwing up the models - owing also to the fact that the physics are probably stressed by the uber fast nature of the flow. It's a bit much - 

I don't know what point these models evolve technologically to handle exotic/or extreme situations but...it seems with 250 mb sigma level 200+ kt wind maxes trying to leave the planetary environment tangent to the curve ... pita-flop computing power may not be enough.  We need infinite particular momentum determination at the plank scales - hahaha. 

No seriously, I think that the interaction between Zeta and the baroclinic wave space ..et al, is proving a challenge here - just a hunch. 

You can really see how Zeta is stretching the baroclinic field by the way it endures its PP and pulls along the warm front when looping the synoptic charts ... That's indicative of 'robbing' some diabatic aspect into the 2nd wave - which really is the planetary event through all this... not the 1st wave.   *BUT* more specifically labling the error,... I think the models were not leaving enough H20 behind Zeta...and were processing ( perhaps ) too much evacuation of moisture from the column post Zeta's remnants leaving the MA... Now, ...perhaps they are seeing more left behind, and that crucially fuels the dynamics of the 2nd wave and viola!  

It's a nice tidy explanation......  Who's with me!!!    :) 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kuchera map is prob more accurate in this scenario.

oh god - ... don't bring gasoline to a match fight please... 

I know what you mean tho - it's wet urinal cake so a lower ratio may work with that particular product's arithmetic.   I don't understand why a snow accumulation product can't do a sigma interval average based on ratios... It's seems like a simple series of interpretative algorithms to me..  This much snow growth deposition falling into x temperature --> 8::1 ... 10::1 ... 20::1 .... And if you have differential intervals and pesky warm(cool) layers, every time in the sounding the temperature variation occurs, calculate that interval... Function() exits doing one last calculation: total ration/N-intervals ... done. 

Probably ... 1,000 lines of Python.  I could do it in f'n Oracle/DB syntax, and have a web-server XML read in the numbers for the graphics engine to go on and make its pretty maps.  And you know...it might actually be useful - 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because all we hear is how the nam over did snow, euro over did snow...when in fact sometimes the 10:1 maps aren't always right. I hate that.

Yeah that is a pet peeve of mine...I often tell people. "no, the model did not overpredict the snow, the algorithm that interprets the model data did. Stop using that algorithm....i.e. clown maps"

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to blow smoke at the assessment ... but, I did mention yesterday that the complex interaction between the diabatic thief in the night, Zeta  ( kitchy ) may be playing havoc with the stream dynamics during mechanical phasing.... I think the whole Zeta thing ( frankly ) would have done this thing the better if the f'er just wasn't part of it... Or, fully sucked in...But this bi-pass thing I think was screwing up the models - owing also to the fact that the physics are probably stressed by the uber fast nature of the flow. It's a bit much - 

I don't know what point these models evolve technologically to handle exotic/or extreme situations but...it seems with 250 mb sigma level 200+ kt wind maxes trying to leave the planetary environment tangent to the curve ... pita-flop computing power may not be enough.  We need infinite particular momentum determination at the plank scales - hahaha. 

No seriously, I think that the interaction between Zeta and the baroclinic wave space ..et al, is proving a challenge here - just a hunch. 

You can really see how Zeta is stretching the baroclinic field by the way it endures its PP and pulls along the warm front when looping the synoptic charts ... That's indicative of 'robbing' some diabatic aspect into the 2nd wave - which really is the planetary event through all this... not the 1st wave.   *BUT* more specifically labling the error,... I think the models were not leaving enough H20 behind Zeta...and were processing ( perhaps ) too much evacuation of moisture from the column post Zeta's remnants leaving the MA... Now, ...perhaps they are seeing more left behind, and that crucially fuels the dynamics of the 2nd wave and viola!  

It's a nice tidy explanation......  Who's with me!!!    :) 

Yes you did and we rode you. Pickles laughed 

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2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Popcorn and front row seats in October.  Nothing wrong with this.  Considering it's been Covid talk since February, a bit of early season, buttered up popcorn, while sitting 6 feet from others in an rather empty theater is welcomed at this point.  

I was just enjoying the dilf vs milf tussle.  

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