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Oct 29-30 snow threat


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Decided to make an actual call on this one as there is a good chance some places in CT will see the first plowable snow and many places the first snow in the air. Snow this early is very rare and warrants a forecast snowfall map i feel. Most of the population of the state will likely just see snow in the air or coating especially on grassy non-paved surfaces. Feel theres a good chance of very low end advisory snow in the hills of 2 or 3" possibly up to 4. If models change signicantly for 12Z and 18Z ill make an update but i think this is fine. 

10_29.20_forecast.thumb.jpg.025b59337698189e63eea292df1bebcf.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Debbie right to the end. Some things never change 

Lol , 0z was a shift in right direction on most models. The backside stuff relies on good lift from a ULL that is steadily weakening on approach...lets see what 12z does ..its Late October hype man. You saw what slight changes did last nite. 

WPC has the 50% line for 1 inch of snow from LWM to about CT /MA border by BDL.  50% line for 2 inches is from Concord, Nh to Berks. 

Anyone who thinks you aren't better than them is a debbie...lol

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As long as you don't buy into the highest amounts, I think it's fine. Seems like a lot of the interior is at least 1-3...maybe higher nrn ORH hills and the berks. It looked like central and srn VT and NH, esp high terrain would do very well too. If this thing were to really wrap up, maybe some spots have higher amounts more widespread. 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lol , 0z was a shift in right direction on most models. The backside stuff relies on good lift from a ULL that is steadily weakening on approach...lets see what 12z does ..its Late October hype man. You saw what slight changes did last nite. 

WPC has the 50% line for 1 inch of snow from LWM to about CT /MA border by BDL. 

WPC?? Lol

We’ve‘ been trying to tell you for 3+ days round two was coming. You do this every single storm.  You cancel everything , say things are shredded etc.The day you are pumped up and excited is the day you finally decide to get married and start a family and give up the Dilf life 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WPC?? Lol

We’ve‘ been trying to tell you for 3+ days round two was coming. You do this every single storm.  You cancel everything , sat things are shredded etc.The day you are pumped up and excited is the day you finally decide to get married and start a family and give up the Dilf life 

You tell everyone 3 days out that every storm is coming. You really don't have much credibility at forecasting anything. You hype. That's it. OOo and you spin lol.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy the shredded no snow event tomorrow.

Now now children. No need to sling mud at eachother.. We have the election for that ..lol. Seriously... Just curious why I hadn't heard much mentioned for that shot of snow Monday Eve? Is it just squalid or a period of snow? 

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Looked to me like the GFS 06z was more robust than any of the last several cycle of that particular model I've seen, wrt QPF resurging across a broader expanse of the Capital District up to at least CNE and over the middle coastal Maine down to SNE with that 2nd wave.

Tho it was more robust ..it also has less 'blue' painted on graphics relative to increasing fall-rates - which heavier should be more in a marginality than this...

I'm not in the mood go comb obsessively through sigma levels to prove the model's just permuting itself too warm or not, but I have seen that in the past, frankly. Just knee jerk based on experience and having woken up on the wrong side of the bed ... I can cynically introduce that climate comes back to haunt sometimes. And a given event some how, some way... proves it was critically SD overdone.  It's not like this thing is so deep and cold that it has room to f! around ...  What if the 2nd wave does burgeon a new expanding shield but lower than 800' it's cold rain/paws with 'real' snow at 1100+

It wouldn't be the first time models were crucially off by a seemingly irrelevant .5 C 

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