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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Spoke to Chicago family who reported snow in the air today.  Didn’t ORD get maybe 10 Inches last Halloween? 

Not quite.  4.6" on October 30-31, 2019.  It was only the second time on record that measurable snow occurred on Halloween in Chicago, with 2014 (0.1") being the other year.

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19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's right. Expected rain to start, but started as snow in Hamden. That was an "uh-oh" moment. The trees started to sag in an hour, then came the pops and shotgun blasts. Thankfully not a disaster near the coast, but boy was the Hartford area a disaster.

6 days without power.  Streets impassible.  National guard driving up and down cul=da-sacs. Driving miles to get gas for the generator. No thanks.  We were at killington for opening weekend. I watched the thread and saw my entire area lose power on the eversouse site.  I waited until we had gotten about an hour or two of skiing in on Sunday before I told my husband that we needed to leave, go to Home Depot in Rutland and buy the generator, five 5 gallon gas cans, batteries and electric cords. We stopped in Ludlow for easy food like sandwich meat, bread, tuna etc. Hit gas stations and filled the heavy Chevy (36 gallon tank) and filled the 25 gallons in cans on the way back too.  Nothing like driving into a disaster area knowing you are going to be living there for a while.  It was cold.  No heat, no water, no phone, no electricity, no cable.  By day 2 the cell phone towers were dead.  You could see how things could get weird real quick in a worse disaster. And of course that was all right on the heels of the Irene disaster n VT only two months earlier. Good times.  Not looking for a repeat of that on top of what we have going right now with the virus and the election. 

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Elevation was everything, here on the Barkhamsted East Hartland line we ended up with about 25” and 12 minutes down the road in Granby Center it was about 11” it actually looked like a tornado had gone through the Southwick MA Granby Simsbury CT area with the amount of snapped telephone poles and downed trees and power lines, not even a twig came down at my place

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Are your obs going to be like my house in MD compared to Charlottesville, VA? Whenever those guys are expecting snow but switch to sleet, I know I am about to get crushed. LOL

We wouldn’t hate this look.  But that’s a strong low at the NYC longitude.  That’s sort of what we need to see up north, stronger low by the time it’s exiting NJ.

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C1A84D70-E337-4264-B36A-E0FBCB958F8B.thumb.png.3071c41db92fbf5b2f8104aa247860b3.png

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Are your obs going to be like my house in MD compared to Charlottesville, VA? Whenever those guys are expecting snow but switch to sleet, I know I am about to get crushed. LOL

Yeah probably. I’m curious to see how you do in our SWFEs. Based on the Randolph depths I assume very well.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Whats a different evolution that could mute that or squash it a bit and still keep this juicy.

Maybe get that s/w passing to our north on Wed night to dig a bit more and squash the heights a bit more behind it in advance of Zeta and the trailing polar s/w?

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1 hour ago, FlashFreeze said:

Elevation was everything, here on the Barkhamsted East Hartland line we ended up with about 25” and 12 minutes down the road in Granby Center it was about 11” it actually looked like a tornado had gone through the Southwick MA Granby Simsbury CT area with the amount of snapped telephone poles and downed trees and power lines, not even a twig came down at my place

Not enough orange cones and police tape to mark the road hazards even days after the storm in granby/East granby/simsbury. A total war zone for sure.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Someone is going to get some soggy snow if these amped solutions verify, The Nam was ready to go into Zoink mode, 984mb.

Just want some snow, I like Mitchy-Dendrite-You down to Hubby to be honest... but I’d sign on the dotted line for 2-3” right now and walk away lol.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thanks

You can see the 7H low out by Bradford PA then over to BGM before it sorta dives ESE/SE hour 84 toward Scranton

I mean it’s the 84hr NAM too so it could just flat out be way too warm aloft too. Other models are much cooler aloft. Zeta will be cranking out the latent heating ahead of the system though. As others have said, it’s frigid below 850. 

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The last time I hunted opening day deer season in snow was 2011, Could happen again.

Yeah that has to make it much easier as long as it’s not a ton of snow... just being able to see tracks if you are even in the right neighborhood has to increase the chances of getting something.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM was about to go apeshit.

I wish there was a low location overlaying this panel. But you can clearly see the favorable positioning of the low pressure positioned to the right entrance of the jet streak promoting ascent.  I have no doubt with the upper-level support, the low pressure system would have continued to strengthen if there had been more panels. after 84 hours. 

200wh.conus.thumb.png.c1e969a9cdd4cc7d5ddc2dcd1c921a68.png

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