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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z gfs pretty mundane for all 

 

13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Not sure if I can make it up to Pit2 for this.  But I wish I were there or back in Shelburne.  Until we see some additional compelling runs closer in,  the safe bet is for a cold rain for my neck of the woods.

 

:(

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Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

Except it doesn’t show any of that lol

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

Reverse psychology FTW!

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38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

nobody believes you, but nice try

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Just like old times. Right back into the swing of things huh...

It’d be nice if one of these held serve from inception in but that’s never the case ...there’s always a run or two that backs off if not completely turns off the dopamine drip and  everybody goes running for the Bridges

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I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

it was locked and loaded from 4-5 days out and few believed it at first and then we just grew happier by the day

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

it snowed in Cambridge Mass some flakes as that sorta arctic front/ air mass bled in (i guess on the 27'th...)

Then i went to Westminster for that storm

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

Yeah wasn’t that like -6C at 850mb over HFD at the start?  That started as snow right on the south coast, that thread is awesome as people realize it’s snowing right down to the water.

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