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forkyfork

remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas

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1-3" of rain looks like a solid bet regardless of the snow. if you want snow the euro outcome is your friend. it keeps the ejecting closed low strong while phasing with a northern stream s/w

500hv.us_ne.png

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If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward.  

Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC but the 00z/26 UK/EC.

As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday.

Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P. ]]

Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday.

Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY).

Please follow NWS and posters here. 

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Potential exists for snow for the interior with this storm. I can see some flakes for the city as the storm exists but nothing else.

Here is the 6z GFS Para  and eps ( got it from SNE  thread )

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.png

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png

368938739_download(15).thumb.png.bdc54656770bb596cd1b61d6dc87ed8a.png

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward.  

Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC but the 00z/26 UK/EC.

As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday.

Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the less model on this several days ago if this occurs).

Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday.

Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY).

Please follow NWS and posters here. 

Walt, it seems that NYC and Long Island are part of the cone?  But this will be a remnant and not a tropical system once it gets up here right?  They have 40 mph sustained winds (which would imply a TS) all the way to the east coast, but I suspect it'll already be absorbed by the mid-latitude system once it gets here?

 

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Also root for the new parallel GFS if you want a stronger phase and early season first flakes potential. A weakness  of the current GFS OP is that it has a weak bias with the SE Ridge. The stronger SE Ridge on the parallel GFS and Euro allow a quicker phase closer to the coast.

0B8D9703-AB73-4800-B3C5-3A398E9D4989.thumb.png.168ac0d87a2be47e7d4e8736c8d9e449.png
74F624B3-5CC3-4A09-95C7-3FF6B1E95659.thumb.png.f67ab2650289ff9d4703b8b948e3789e.png

93E94474-7BD8-4632-9056-1751D0006128.thumb.png.edfd07e4cbf09a5052625307cd1d5a40.png

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Also root for the new parallel GFS if you want a stronger phase and early season first flakes potential. A weakness  of the current GFS OP is that it has a weak bias with the SE Ridge. The stronger SE Ridge on the parallel GFS and Euro allow a quicker phase closer to the coast.

0B8D9703-AB73-4800-B3C5-3A398E9D4989.thumb.png.168ac0d87a2be47e7d4e8736c8d9e449.png
74F624B3-5CC3-4A09-95C7-3FF6B1E95659.thumb.png.f67ab2650289ff9d4703b8b948e3789e.png

93E94474-7BD8-4632-9056-1751D0006128.thumb.png.edfd07e4cbf09a5052625307cd1d5a40.png

 

One of those rare cases where we're rooting for a stronger SE Ridge ;-)

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, it seems that NYC and Long Island are part of the cone?  But this will be a remnant and not a tropical system once it gets up here right?  They have 40 mph sustained winds (which would imply a TS) all the way to the east coast, but I suspect it'll already be absorbed by the mid-latitude system once it gets here?

 

South side stronger I think initially coming out through the Delmarva. Then on Friday the upper low itself weakens opens eastward and permits the high to the north to approach and tighten north side remnant Zeta gradient with strong North-Northeast CAA during the afternoon in the boundary layer (over warm SST) and significant wind transfer from aloft. 

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49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bad sign for winter 

Unfortunately, the GFS-parallel is based on the FV3 core rather than the now widely-used and effective 4D-Var initialization scheme (ECMWF, UKMET, GGEM). Inferior initialization coupled with other model issues can lead to wild outcomes.

For perspective, it will be worth revisiting this forecast for verification purposes. Albany's lowest October temperature is 16 degrees. Its earliest single-digit reading occurred on November 16. It is all but certain that Albany will not have a 9 degree temperature on October 31.

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47 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. 

 

So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. 

However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow.

Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958

Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973.

Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average.

Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.

 

So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel.

 

I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar.

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Just now, The Iceman said:

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. 

 

So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. 

 

Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958

Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973.

Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average.

Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.

 

So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel.

 

I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NY but I bet they'd be similar.

I've done the same for NYC. It worked out to approximately a 30" season. 

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1 minute ago, KEITH L.I said:

Why is every Para, a weenie model until it becomes the regular one lol

Euro also has some snow for us

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Bad sign for winter 

Doesn't it seem a tad early to be spiking the ball on this? I know everyone likes to call something and be correct about it, but it seems way too early to be right. Then again, 50/50 chance.

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. 

 

So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. 

However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow.

Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958

Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973.

Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average.

Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average.

 

So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel.

 

I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar.

believe it or not I think we need to shrink the sample size....let's do 1950 onwards.  The climate was radically different back in the early 1900s let alone late 1800s lol

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3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small

this is not where sample size matters I think, more important is the pattern and if that pattern means something later on.  We had a strong correlation between cold Octobers mild Novembers and a snowy winter for a long time before the pattern changed during the mid 90s.  Rather than just looking at numbers it's way more important to look at patterns and what they might mean going forward.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happens if you constrain the data to only include modern winters (1950 onwards)?

 

You're looking at a super small sample size for extremely anomalous events. What if a given system was 3° warmer and it rains? It's really hard to just say oh it snowed now winter is doomed. 

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Winter isn’t over because of snow in October. We’re also forgetting really good winters where there was early snow and cold like in 2002 (granted that was an El Niño). 

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15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Doesn't it seem a tad early to be spiking the ball on this? I know everyone likes to call something and be correct about it, but it seems way too early to be right. Then again, 50/50 chance.

After the past few winters in the city he's allowed some healthy cynicism even if it is a tad early.

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37 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

You're looking at a super small sample size for extremely anomalous events. What if a given system was 3° warmer and it rains? It's really hard to just say oh it snowed now winter is doomed. 

Yeah that's another issue, which is why it's better to analyze similar patterns rather than similar outcomes.  In other words, if there was a similar pattern in place in some other years than that should give us a better idea rather than just looking for similar outcomes, regardless of the pattern in place.

 

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