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Windspeed

Hurricane Zeta

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

according to the weather channel the pressure of zeta has come up to 990 which would indicate weakening while on radar it looks like it is strengthening hmm..

I was thrown by that myself. It's rapidly organizing for sure. Probably will see pressure drop and winds bump up quite a bit overnight

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I like the look of this one. Could make a run well into C2 status if things go well for it overnight. Actually like the vortex structure more now than I did yesterday. Seems reasonably tight and compact.

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I really thought we would have hurricane status back on this advisory. Regardless it is drastically improving structure and intensification should continue overnight. NHC wasn't ruling out more robust intensification based on Zeta's structure, the environment, and past hurricanes with similar structure/conditions. 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I really thought we would have hurricane status back on this advisory. Regardless it is drastically improving structure and intensification should continue overnight. NHC wasn't ruling out more robust intensification based on Zeta's structure, the environment, and past hurricanes with similar structure/conditions. 

Recon only found a 991mb pressure. A little baffled too seeing as it appears to be forming an eyewall quickly.

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Looking at this right now I find it hard to believe Zeta isn't near or at Cat 2 status. Unbelievable presentation considering what it looked like just 6 hours ago

fd3bd15c-629b-4af4-8783-ed81d37c2b55.jpg

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It seems the new convection is going to have to pinwheel around the center for several more hours before the pressure responds.

What it really needs to do is contract. A rough eye diameter is somehwhere in the ballpark of 40 miles. Pretty big...

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Hhunters data is back up again now and they appear to be heading back through the right front quadrant right now so expecting this to be the highest windspeed pass of their pattern. Last pass through did bear out that wind speeds had gone up a bit. Latest VDM reported 66kts peak fl winds. I feel like 70 should be easy to exceed with the current presentation but, I suppose this is why we have the planes haha. 

 

MU

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Anxiously waiting for recon to arrive. Zeta's presentation has done nothing but improve since the last one departed. 

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Middle of the night weather check.  Raw T up to 7.0 This could be the best 6 hr RI of the season.

NFjU4S1.jpg

 

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Just observing the convection rotating much faster around the eye now, I think they find some big winds. 

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This is one of the craziest recoveries I have ever seen from a cane crossing the Yucatan.  This morning it was a naked swirl and now has multiple hot towers/mesos rotating around a closed eye.  Wild stuff.

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Earlier microwave scans were setting this table. Not going to have very much time for weakening near landfall if this continues to blow up in the next 12 hours.

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HWRF once again nailed the medium-range IR presentation, depicting just about what is shown above on the run yesterday morning.

Its reputation as a clown model is somewhat undeserved, IMO. It definitely has an excessive deepening bias at longer ranges especially with invests that haven't actually formed into tropical cyclones yet. Give it an established cyclone and it has been downright uncanny with structure and intensity in the short to medium range.

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48 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

NHC now going with 100mph near landfall 

Seems reasonable. The right side of the storm will have enhanced winds do to fast forward movement. This is going to be a big power outage event well inland. 
This portion of the gulf has been a down right hurricane factory this season. If these waters had been undisturbed Zeta would likely be a major. 

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Based on HURDAT, Zeta is now the strongest hurricane on record this far West in the Atlantic Basin for this late in the season.

 

There appears to be some assymetric shape taking over due to strong SW flow. The system is also gaining forward motion pretty quickly. Not sure how much weakening will occur prior to landfall if any though due to fast motion. HWRF wanted to get this down to around 969 mb by landfall. We'll see...

fc220fb2543f8dc2b6995bf155ef6105.gif&key=08317c557273f78b712020aec60a1529367a89a9aa854fe3e044e55d8398c71b

 

 

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Based on satellite presentation I think our strengthening may be done. Cold cloud tops not completely around core like they were last night and the eye has disappeared. I think the fast forward motion will limit weakening but I do think it could come down in intensity some and landfall like 80-85. I don't think we will make 100 like NHC was saying. Regardless still a very impressive turn around in a short amount of time. 

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I have a few thoughts this am. 

#1 As the storm approaches the coast we'll start being able to see the eyewall on KLIX radar. As always this is another tool in our toolbox to see the structure and intensity of the eye and any associated mesovortices and their qualities. 

#2 The physics suggest that as we know, shelf waters cool near the coast. They are however still warm enough to support tropical systems, 80-81 near the coast.  However, the storm will be moving very fast, and upper level divergence is solid. As a result, weakening will not be substantial. I am curious why both the 06z HWRF and HMON *both* show strengthening to landfall. That's odd. To ping off of Windspeed--at the moment, the data suggested a pause in the strengthening process. The storm has ~10-11 hours to go before landfall. The eye has become harder to see on recent satellite imagery, and convection is currently more asymmetric.  Hurricanes go through pulses of convection so this isn't an immediate flag that strengthening is over. The storm may wrap convection around the eye again and become more symmetric. Moreover, the storm had excellent sat presentation overnight that would make you think it was a cat 2, but the hhunters didn't find those winds. Conversely, delta didn't look good on satellite a lot of the time but had potent winds. It looks to me based on the absolute most recent pass by the aircraft that winds have come up, and fixed geopotential derived surface pressures are down a touch from the last pass. And, to confirm that, just now, yeah, the plane shows pressures are down again now to 977. New vdm, closed eye, 24 miles, max fl winds steady at 89kts, estimated max surface winds of 70kts (previous vdm had those at 58kts). The sonde in the NE eyewall has 75kt winds in the lowest 150 meters. This is down by a knot from the last sonde through the NE eyewall and approximately steady.

 

MU

 

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I think it, presentation wise, looks the best as it has yet. The deep convection is more consistent, it had that popcorn look when the eye feature was more pronounced, and it is popping an eye on visible as we speak. Recent trends and forward motion, I don’t see this weakening. I think cat 2, 85 kt landfall 

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