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Hurricane Zeta


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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I saw that earlier. Anyone an expert on near shore wave heights? I saw the associated graph and it looks so extreme that I wonder whether it is an instrument error. 

Watching the webcam posted earlier on Grand Ilse. The waves are starting to crash over the dunes and water is rising quickly.

https://irgir.click2stream.com/

 

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Okay so they dont follow the rules of significant figures and if they measured 112 or even 111 it would be reported as 115 in the public advisory?

 

Sigh. I could continue this conversation,  but I don't feel like it's productive and helping anyone so I won't. The storm is about to make landfall and I want to see what the hhunters just found and watch what happens. We can talk about this later. I don't pretend to know more than the nhc, and I don't question their scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying hurricanes. The 5pm advisory should be out any second along with a new vdm. We can chat about 5mph differences and rounding and what should or shouldn't be done another time. 

MU

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2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Sigh. I could continue this conversation,  but I don't feel like it's productive and helping anyone so I won't. The storm is about to make landfall and I want to see what the hhunters just found and watch what happens. We can talk about this later. I don't pretend to know more than the nhc, and I don't question their scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying hurricanes. The 5pm advisory should be out any second along with a new vdm. We can chat about 5mph differences and rounding and what should or shouldn't be done another time. 

MU

I just wanted to be clear that's what you said because in the first part of the sentence you said it would be reported as 110 mph and in the second part you said 115 mph lol.  This part:  Not cutoff at 2.5mph and if it's a 112 major they'd say it was 110. They'd say 115 cat 3 if winds support 112. 

Regardless, interesting read:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/28/hurricane-zeta-track-louisiana/

Flight-level winds during a midafternoon Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight hit 138 mph; extrapolated down to the surface, that would suggest 101 mph winds at the surface. A dropsonde, or probe, released shortly after found a surface wind of 115 mph in the southern eyewall. That would indicate Zeta is near or at major hurricane status.

The National Hurricane Center did not upgrade Zeta in their most recent advisory, raising the potential that the measurement was suspect. Regardless, Zeta continues to increase in strength and could approach Category 3 intensity as it makes landfall.

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Just now, Windspeed said:
2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:
Latest NHC full forecast out. 110mph and 970mb. Everyone freak out. It wasn't upgraded to cat 3! OMG!!!! 

Could be waiting on new dropsonde data. But it probably won't be enough.

It sure has that look. Satellite presentation still improving as it landfalls. Craziness 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Hard pressed to call any of what it's making its way through now as land, really. Really won't be until it's N of New Orleans.

Yeah and I'm not sure they have any official wind instrumentation near those bayous to measure wind or surge for that matter.  I remember the same issues with Laura with surge as people thought surge was lower than expected because of where it occurred, but later studies showed that the surge was higher, but in a much more sparsely populated area.

 

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Just now, SnowLover22 said:

So will the eyewall be going over New Orleans. It is kind of hard to tell.

So unless there's a change of motion I don't see how NO misses it entirely. If you take either the short term more easterly motion or a more longer term look it still goes over the city.

Zeta1.jpg

Zeta2.jpg

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Could see this one going either way in post analysis. Lot of indicators suggestive that this may have briefly been a marginal cat 3, but nothing was overtly definitive. Pressure kept falling into landfall and bottomed out at 966. If any of this years storms were to be bumped in post, it'd be this one, pending onshore obs.

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Just now, Dunkman said:

Certainly doesn't look like there's a whole lot on the south side on radar now.

Is that normal?  I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore.

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Just now, cptcatz said:

Is that normal?  I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore.

Its fairly common, but not always true. Laura didn't have a weak south side.

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1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Its fairly common, but not always true. Laura didn't have a weak south side.

Clearly you missed the whole epic battle about whether the weak south side of Laura was or was not due to radar attenuation

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