Prospero Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like LA Offshore Oil Port just went offline. I think most in the area have dropped in last 30 minutes or so. 36.1 ft wave height. Whew, wonder how that will translate with any storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 110 mph at the 3pm update. Looks like it will have at most one more advisory before making landfall, one final chance to hit major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 sorry, but are these velocity pinpoint numbers through Radar Scope Pro? I can't seem seem to get them on my app.I got Pro 1 tier, use Super-Res Velocity Tilt one and the inspector gadget. 24k ft radar beam at that range but that's howSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: The levees will probably be fine but referencing what they are designed to handle or have prevented before doesn’t seem like the way to go. If they do fail it will not be because of their specs, it will be because of an unknown defect. Our infrastructure sucks. Something could fail unexpectedly just like Katrina. Not sure why "Capital One Building" keeps popping into my mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: He rented it for hurricane season, as he calls it "Operation Deep South at Hurricane House". Pretty damn good choice for a rental home as a base to chase hurricanes! Ok that makes more sense. I mean, idk, I still wouldn't do that myself. If I strongly expected a tornado to go over my rental house while chasing tornadoes, I might consider a different house and *chase* the bad weather rather than find myself homeless mid season. 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: The levees will probably be fine but referencing what they are designed to handle or have prevented before doesn’t seem like the way to go. If they do fail it will not be because of their specs, it will be because of an unknown defect. Our infrastructure sucks. Something could fail unexpectedly just like Katrina. True. You're right, there could be a problem with them. I was more stating, this storm's characteristics don't seem like they will place a true strain on the system to a degree that defects would cause problems. The main stress force on a levee is water, not wind. So, with a strong wind event but moderate surge (compared with a catastrophic event), I don't see the levee system failing even if it had an imperfection. Something could go wrong. But, I feel like that's more probable if the storm was going to be a 24+ hour event. I feel like this isn't the event that dooms the levees. It's a wind event that travels far inland. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I'm pretty sure the levees in New Orleans will have a failure from this hurricane, since it is a major hurricane now. Just takes 1 little thing to go wrong, and the ocean will fill up the fish bowl. God forbid, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: I'm pretty sure the levees in New Orleans will have a failure from this hurricane, since it is a major hurricane now. Just takes 1 little thing to go wrong, and the ocean will fill up the fish bowl. God forbid, of course. I wouldn't surprise me either. I'm not sure they have been tested quite like they're about to be tested after the COE redesigned them post-Katrina. Unreal we have a rapidly strengthening (Likely Major) Hurricane heading directly for them. How 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like LA Offshore Oil Port just went offline. I think most in the area have dropped in last 30 minutes or so. 36.1 ft wave height. Whew, wonder how that will translate with any storm surge.Look at this!!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I would think it’s not coming from the worst direction for N.O. which would be NW or NNW to pile the water up the Mississippi and Lake Borgne/Pontchartrain most effectively. The NNE direction would certainly funnel water in but maybe not as much. Also it hasn’t had the longest time to build up a surge. But it’ll be a very rough evening regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 With the storm strengthening on approach and fast forward speed this is going cause wind issues a good ways inland I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, dan11295 said: With the storm strengthening on approach and fast forward speed this is going cause wind issues a good ways inland I would think. Yeah the NC mountains are under a TS warning. That's a first I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: True. You're right, there could be a problem with them. I was more stating, this storm's characteristics don't seem like they will place a true strain on the system to a degree that defects would cause problems. The main stress force on a levee is water, not wind. So, with a strong wind event but moderate surge (compared with a catastrophic event), I don't see the levee system failing even if it had an imperfection. Something could go wrong. But, I feel like that's more probable if the storm was going to be a 24+ hour event. I feel like this isn't the event that dooms the levees. It's a wind event that travels far inland. However, don't forget that this IS 2020 - the year of highly improbable events. Who would've guessed that two hurricanes would hit almost the same spot this year or that we'd have run out of names by now, or that (I'm from Boulder, Colorado so I have to throw this one out there) a wildfire would've burned through 100,000+ acres in a day, or that an amped-up cold virus would've shut down the country? This is the year of Murphy's Law and who knows how those levees were actually put together - not what was on the specs but what was actually done or what those levees are actually capable of holding back. Given this year though, if there's ANY possibility of them failing - they'll fail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I thought hitting just west of an area was worst possible thing from wind and surge perspective? I’m not real well versed in hurricanes so I’m not sure on any of this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Sheesh... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 People will focus on New Orleans but the MGC is where we could have more interesting water issues. At least unlike Laura will have a nice way to benchmark the water since it’s not all bayou and Camille and Katrina both had well documented surges there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like recon will have one more pass through the eye before landfall. Eagerly awaiting the plane to turn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I would think it’s not coming from the worst direction for N.O. which would be NW or NNW to pile the water up the Mississippi and Lake Borgne/Pontchartrain most effectively. The NNE direction would certainly funnel water in but maybe not as much. Also it hasn’t had the longest time to build up a surge. But it’ll be a very rough evening regardless. Instead of Lake Pontchartrain, I’d be looking at the many rivers around New Orleans to the south and east and worry about those backing up and heading north once the surge comes in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 This is basically a Cat 3, the weird SS threshold of 111 notwithstanding. That scale needs to be rounded to the closest 5 mph just like the measurements are. It's a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like recon will have one more pass through the eye before landfall. Eagerly awaiting the plane to turn!Looks like they are going for a SE to NW pass. We should know definitively whether or not this has reached MH status prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, jbenedet said: Instead of Lake Pontchartrain, I’d be looking at the many rivers around New Orleans to the south and east and worry about those backing up and heading north once the surge comes in.. Not good either way since the land south of them is just swamps with smaller lakes/rivers like you said. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, jbenedet said: Instead of Lake Pontchartrain, I’d be looking at the many rivers around New Orleans to the south and east and worry about those backing up and heading north once the surge comes in.. Isn't this the worst direction for N.O. though? I always thought that storm surge flooding is worst for N. O. when storms pass just to their east and keep the city under a northerly flow, so they get surge from the lake. N. O. is too far away from the GoM to get a lot of surge from the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Windspeed said: 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Looks like recon will have one more pass through the eye before landfall. Eagerly awaiting the plane to turn! Looks like they are going for a SE to NW pass. We should know definitively whether or not this has reached MH status prior to landfall. It's Cat 3....111 weird lower threshold for Cat 3 should be 110 since all measurements get rounded to nearest 5 mph anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 looking like current trajectory would put the center of the eye of NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 This is basically a Cat 3, the weird SS threshold of 111 notwithstanding. That scale needs to be rounded to the closest 5 mph just like the measurements are. It's a Cat 3. It may be semantics, but someone is going to get hit hard by this hurricane. It's definitely NOT a weakening junk storm falling apart at landfall like I thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: I thought hitting just west of an area was worst possible thing from wind and surge perspective? I’m not real well versed in hurricanes so I’m not sure on any of this though. it depends on the local geography Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: It's Cat 3....111 weird lower threshold for Cat 3 should be 110 since all measurements get rounded to nearest 5 mph anyway. A better solution would be to get rid of mph and speak in terms of knots. It’s all very nice and clean when we do that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Windspeed said: 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This is basically a Cat 3, the weird SS threshold of 111 notwithstanding. That scale needs to be rounded to the closest 5 mph just like the measurements are. It's a Cat 3. It may be semantics, but someone is going to get hit hard by this hurricane. It's definitely NOT a weakening junk storm falling apart landfall like I thought it would be. It's one more to add to the list of the RI storms we've had in the GoM this year. I didn't think it would be doing this either (no one did), it looks like the shear didn't affect it the way people thought it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Sick hot tower just went up in the NE eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 We can compare hurricanes based on size intensity and track...but in terms of impact that doesn’t tell whole story. This one does has a few details that already make it unique and potentially far more impactful than it otherwise would be if we were just basing on the former characteristics. Surprise factor. Stronger than widely expected. Most are likely riding it out (for better or worse). Direct hit of a major metro city, that is very flood prone. Worst storm surge coinciding near/at time of high tide. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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