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Hurricane Zeta


Windspeed
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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Nowhere near the same. This is an average sized storm booking it with winds picking up at very end. Katrina was a mid gulf monster and had days to buildup that massive surge. Not fair to even include this in the discussion with the K word down there 

The more salient question is how does this compare to Sandy?

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Uhm...pretty strong convective towers are now presently going up in the eastern eyewall. Zeta is putting on a show.
a4c9c0c60fecab3ae4fcd0e6c42acab5.gif

 

8 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Looks like these are flagged but it makes one wonder what they’ll find in the NE pass.

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Collectively, wow. I agree, NE eyewall pass will be impressive. Though the winds there that got sampled are still getting a boost from the fast forward speed of the storm (note the direction of storm motion compared to the wind barbs).  Also want to know the surface pressure. Impressive. But, no storm jumps 25mph in 3 hours. It's landfalling in 6. Does anyone have an analog for that big of a jump that fast over eh waters? I don't! Remember that Cat 2 is still impressive here given the water temps, time of year, that none of the guidance except the extreme high end projected such an intense system. I think the consensus on the forum right now is that it's at cat 2 strength. It's going to run out of ocean before it can hit cat 3, but honestly even I am surprised how well this is holding together and strengthening so close to landfall. 

 

MU

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Not comparing the systems in that context. It's been a while since a formidable hurricane took a path this close (or directly over) New Orleans.

Katrina was slower, much much MUCH bigger, and New Orleans didn't have the protection system they have now. After Katrina they made major design changes to all kinds of things. This is a strong hurricane hitting a major city, it will do damage. But it will do less damage than Katrina...and such would be true even if they were the same in every way...size speed strength, because NOLA has now redesigned their city to better withstand a Katrina. 

The similarity is simply that it's another hurricane poised to directly impact the city. That's not to minimize it, just, Katrinas and Harveys.. those are a really rare type of event. 

MU

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Last post for now from me but if you have Radar Scope, the velocity imagery for the eyewall is now starting to show on radar. Being mindful of range folding (the purple you see in the image in the ring shape is range folding) and beam height, the right front quadrant shows a broad area of 115mph winds with a small pocket maxing at 131mph probably in a mesovortex. Beam height at that distance is 24k feet, lol, so that ain't mixing to the surface . But, that's still an impressive measurement and is above what I believe delta was at on its approach for the same approximate height. Indicates the system is well organized and not falling apart. 20201028_140757.thumb.jpg.e98eff829b8d15d2a6128169a4858abc.jpg

 

MU

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14 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Maybe this with track over city keeps strongest winds to east of New Orleans?

Hurricane Josh is gonna be sitting on his front porch getting the strongest winds of the storm.  Impressive house selection.

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:
Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west.

Fortunately it will be hauling ass so hopefully that will mitigate surge. Yes, there still will be surge, but again, forward motion is so fast it may not have enough time to build surge inland too far or compromise levees. This looks like it will be a bad wind event however as time is going to run out before it can weaken from maximum intensity...

Forward speed will not affect surge. Wave heights yes, surge, no.

The storm surge will seem like it’s coming in like a wall bc of how fast the storm is moving into landfall...

Also, I see New Orleans high tide is in 4 hrs, at *6:00 pm* CST. Seems like Zeta will be over New Orleans right around that time...

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1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:

dfd798d9606e8eb34493baf2a339bebc.jpg


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Ah, my favorite part the tornado threat is starting to come in.  One thing I learned from any strengthening tropical system upon landfall is its ground friction and localized wind shear is greater than sustaining or dying landfalling tropical systems.  This is going to be a likely tornado outbreak for anyone along the front right quadrant of this system.  Greater NOLA, Greater Birmingham, and Metro Atlanta will need to be very attentive of the tornadic potential through tonight and tomorrow morning...

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