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“Let’s Talk Winter!


Steve
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9 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

I don’t think the track has really changed. To me it seems precipitation field is getting bigger on NW side. Idk lol

Track has changed slightly but the big difference has been it becoming a lot more amped. Also, most models definitely show a more significant push of warm air.

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22 hours ago, buckeye said:

I decided to go into lurking-only mode back in early spring.   Just needed to separate myself from here for awhile.   Didn't like who I became being sucked into a thread and a topic that in my opinion has no place here.  This is where we come to share our illogical and unique passion for weather.  It's the only place we can do it.   That's ALL this place should ever be.   That's my opinion and the last I will say about it:)

So on a lighter note, I did plan to start posting around Xmas but then we actually got a snowstorm on Xmas eve/day and then more snow, and now we sit with a snow cover and a potential decent storm coming in on top.  I told pondo and dilly that since I stopped posting we were having the best winter in years and I was afraid I might jinx it.     So let me apologize in advance to my Ohio brethren if this turns into a 1-3" turd now that I'm back.:devilsmiley:  As far as the later week threat, that's always been tenuous, so I ain't taking the blame if that washes us out.

Welcome back, buck, you were very much missed!

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So what's everyone's call?

Instead of giving a range, I'll just put out exact amounts and see how close I am...  

Columbus: 8.5"

Dayton: 10.5"

Cincinnati: 9.5"

Toledo: 8"

Cleveland: 11" including some lake enhancement.  

Max total somewhere in the state would be in the neighborhood of 15", I think, probably around the northern Miami Valley.  I might be too low with a few of these, but I'm definitely incorporating climo.  Biggest bust potential is Columbus being too high if the storm ends up further NW and Toledo and Cincy being too low.

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14 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

So what's everyone's call?

Mine are Columbus 6"-10", Dayton 8"-12", Cincinnati 8"-12".  I have Columbus a bit lower for two reasons- possible last minute NW movement and the airport typically reports a lower total- not always- but enough that I'll hedge my bets.  That said, I could easily see the minimum levels being too low in all these places. 

I have Columbus at 6"-we always seem to never be the jackpot-more to the NW.

 

*edited up to six*

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7 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

So what's everyone's call?

Instead of giving a range, I'll just put out exact amounts and see how close I am...  

Columbus: 8.5"

Dayton: 10.5"

Cincinnati: 9.5"

Toledo: 8"

Cleveland: 11" including some lake enhancement.  

Max total somewhere in the state would be in the neighborhood of 15", I think, probably around the northern Miami Valley.  I might be too low with a few of these, but I'm definitely incorporating climo.  Biggest bust potential is Columbus being too high if the storm ends up further NW and Toledo and Cincy being too low.

Those numbers look pretty good. Can’t really say I disagree w/ any of them.

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12 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

So what's everyone's call?

Instead of giving a range, I'll just put out exact amounts and see how close I am...  

Columbus: 8.5"

Dayton: 10.5"

Cincinnati: 9.5"

Toledo: 8"

Cleveland: 11" including some lake enhancement.  

Max total somewhere in the state would be in the neighborhood of 15", I think, probably around the northern Miami Valley.  I might be too low with a few of these, but I'm definitely incorporating climo.  Biggest bust potential is Columbus being too high if the storm ends up further NW and Toledo and Cincy being too low.

I'd be quite happy with 8.5 in columbus, but I'm guessing the heaviest totals line up a bit to our west. I'm gonna go with 6.5 for cbus, 10 in cincy, and 9 in toledo. 

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9 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

I'd be quite happy with 8.5 in columbus, but I'm guessing the heaviest totals line up a bit to our west. I'm gonna go with 6.5 for cbus, 10 in cincy, and 9 in toledo. 

I would be happy for even what Dallas is supposed to get:

 

Quote

Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow before 9pm. Low around 7. Wind chill values between -8 and zero. North northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

I hope jbcmh81 is more right than I am on this though.

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5 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

Is that seriously Dallas's forecast? That's nuts! 

I copied and pasted it right off of the NWS forecast for there.  

 

Oklahoma City:

 

Quote
This Afternoon
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 6. Wind chill values as low as -15. North northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Widespread blowing snow before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -20. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

I would also be happy with their forecast. 

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