November 2020 Discussion

[WhitinsvilleWX]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Bottle up today for the next 4mo.  66F

Wow. Only about 10 degrees warmer here in Fl.

[MJO812]

I'm all in for December 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

I gotta find one from like 1/12 or so. I think it went way more nuts. What a disaster that was. For several runs it was basically showing a near-2015 pattern. 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pants tent today in low 60s. 

Pass me the gravy and sunglasses.

KMHT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/21/2020  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28|SUN CLIMO
N/X  30  41| 38  50| 29  41| 17  43| 43  60| 35  47| 33  48| 38 26 44
TMP  31  39| 43  40| 30  31| 20  40| 46  51| 37  41| 35  41| 40
DPT  23  31| 41  30| 18  10| 14  35| 42  41| 34  36| 31  35| 34
CLD  PC  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV
WND   4   6|  8  14| 11  13|  5   9|  9  10|  4   6|  4   6|  6
P12   2  17| 85  96|  4   0|  5  42| 71  16| 12  28| 22  23| 22999999
P24      17|     96|      6|     42|     79|     28|     39|      999
Q12   0   0|  2   3|  0   0|  0   1|  3   0|  0   0|       |
Q24       0|      4|      0|      1|      4|      0|       |
T12   0   0|  2   4|  1   1|  0   1|  2   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0
T24        |  2    |  4    |  1    |  2    |  1    |  1    |  3
PZP   0   2|  7   3|  1   0|  8  13|  0   2|  3   5|  1   2|  2
PSN  47  46|  1  11| 54  84| 84  44|  3   4|  4   7|  9   7| 10
PRS  18  19|  3  15| 30  13|  0   9|  2   2|  3   1|  3   2|  4
TYP   S   S|  R   R|  S   S|  S   S|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R
SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pass me the gravy and sunglasses.

KMHT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/21/2020  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25| THU 26| FRI 27| SAT 28|SUN CLIMO
N/X  30  41| 38  50| 29  41| 17  43| 43  60| 35  47| 33  48| 38 26 44
TMP  31  39| 43  40| 30  31| 20  40| 46  51| 37  41| 35  41| 40
DPT  23  31| 41  30| 18  10| 14  35| 42  41| 34  36| 31  35| 34
CLD  PC  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| OV  OV| OV
WND   4   6|  8  14| 11  13|  5   9|  9  10|  4   6|  4   6|  6
P12   2  17| 85  96|  4   0|  5  42| 71  16| 12  28| 22  23| 22999999
P24      17|     96|      6|     42|     79|     28|     39|      999
Q12   0   0|  2   3|  0   0|  0   1|  3   0|  0   0|       |
Q24       0|      4|      0|      1|      4|      0|       |
T12   0   0|  2   4|  1   1|  0   1|  2   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0
T24        |  2    |  4    |  1    |  2    |  1    |  1    |  3
PZP   0   2|  7   3|  1   0|  8  13|  0   2|  3   5|  1   2|  2
PSN  47  46|  1  11| 54  84| 84  44|  3   4|  4   7|  9   7| 10
PRS  18  19|  3  15| 30  13|  0   9|  2   2|  3   1|  3   2|  4
TYP   S   S|  R   R|  S   S|  S   S|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R
SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

 

We pray. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Pretty good agreement today of a wet Turkey day. Get em in

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Wow. Only about 10 degrees warmer here in Fl.

Gorgeous day.  What the hell you doing posting while on vacation?  Disney beckons.  Le Cellier ftw.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

48 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Gorgeous day.  What the hell you doing posting while on vacation?  Disney beckons.  Le Cellier ftw.

I had just gotten back and was getting a quick nap 

Le Cellier tomorrow night 

[OceanStWx]

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was taking a winter session class that year so I was actually there for the Jan 3-4 storm which gave ITH like 15”...one of only 2 synoptic storms over 10” while I was there (actually maybe PDII barely got there too)....the other was March 4-6, 2001 but that literally took like 3 days to get 16” so I almost don’t count that one. Lol. 

We did get a great streamer my freshman year on the backside of the Jan 25, 2000 bust. We had like 7-8” in 4 hours behind that storm. So the “total” was like 13” but we used LES for more than half of it. 

You were there for some excellent storms. Feb ‘66 was epic there. 

I remember being in the wrong places at the right times that winter. Missed Christmas 2002 storm while I was raining at home, and then again with the Jan 3-4 storm after I had come back to RI from skiing.

[moneypitmike]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty good agreement today of a wet Turkey day. Get em in

Never had any intention for otherwise.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Never had any intention for otherwise.

Yeah it’s an inside holiday no matter what .. families gathered around large tables eating, drinking , being merry.. huddling around TVs watching the Cowboys lose each year etc . Plenty of time for outside gatherings in war parts of year 

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Never had any intention for otherwise.

 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Never had any intention for otherwise.

 

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it’s an inside holiday no matter what .. families gathered around large tables eating, drinking , being merry.. huddling around TVs watching the Cowboys lose each year etc . Plenty of time for outside gatherings in war parts of year 

Enjoy the Vid, it’s the only Vid you’ve got.

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Enjoy the Vid, it’s the only Vid you’ve got.

I'm shaking in my boots.

[CoastalWx]

Basically all 3 sets of guidance have a similar look with ridging out west and troughing in the east later in the 11-15 day.  The problem is that it’s early in the season and Canada is not cold initially. I think we’ll need to see 2-3 successive cold pushes into the US before anything interesting happens.....as long as guidance doesn’t change. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 

The Giant Marketing dept may be bagging groceries at Giant after that one.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch

 

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch

 

Okay.. But.. We seem to have model agreement from several of the big players that the Polar vortex will split, and from mid month December on, we could see some cold temps and possible snow events. Explain that one. And PS ... You're actually using the NWS and going with their forecast?? Okay..lol

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch

 

Is this supposed to be breaking news?

[greenmtnwx]

How’d GEFS and EPS look in that longer range any better? 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

How’d GEFS and EPS look in that longer range any better? 

Yeah see my post above. Still needs work, but better.

[greenmtnwx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah see my post above. Still needs work, but better.

Got it 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Basically all 3 sets of guidance have a similar look with ridging out west and troughing in the east later in the 11-15 day.  The problem is that it’s early in the season and Canada is not cold initially. I think we’ll need to see 2-3 successive cold pushes into the US before anything interesting happens.....as long as guidance doesn’t change. 

Yeah anything before 12/5ish is probably going to have very little cold air. Best bet is post-12/10 on that look. 

Hopefully NNE and upstate NY can get an event or two before that though. It’s in our best interest to lay down some pack there.  

[Spanks45]

Looking forward to having something to track, hopefully once we get past 12/5. I remember in the early part of the decade how that date always seemed to bring some sort of snow to the Mid Atlantic region.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Basically all 3 sets of guidance have a similar look with ridging out west and troughing in the east later in the 11-15 day.  The problem is that it’s early in the season and Canada is not cold initially. I think we’ll need to see 2-3 successive cold pushes into the US before anything interesting happens.....as long as guidance doesn’t change. 

As you said going to take a few weeks to flush that airmass out of Canada. Even with the pna the flow is still from B.C. And not poleward, so we will need the help of mid/late December climo. 

[Dr. Dews]

<1 month away from sun angle ramping up

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

<1 month away from sun angle ramping up

Is this supposed to be a forum of optimism or is it mostly negative pessimism. I'm about to ditch this forum. I've been on a few others and there is definitely more of discussions on what may happen for the Winter months with optimism. To many poeple on here like to " Poke the coals " and make this forum not an enjoyable place to discuss weather. Some of y'all are ruining it for the rest. 

[SnowEMass]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is this supposed to be a forum of optimism or is it mostly negative pessimism. I'm about to ditch this forum. I've been on a few others and there is definitely more of discussions on what may happen for the Winter months with optimism. To many poeple on here like to " Poke the coals " and make this forum not an enjoyable place to discuss weather. Some of y'all are ruining it for the rest. 

Good to use the ignore feature sometimes 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, SnowEMass said:

Good to use the block feature sometimes 

Ya know.. I didn't even think of that. I have about 3 or 4 that is like to block. Lol. Ok.. I'm done with my rant. With Covid-19, it's nice to have an outlet of something I love too talk about. I guess that's why I'm extra sensitive this year. 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is this supposed to be a forum of optimism or is it mostly negative pessimism. I'm about to ditch this forum. I've been on a few others and there is definitely more of discussions on what may happen for the Winter months with optimism. To many poeple on here like to " Poke the coals " and make this forum not an enjoyable place to discuss weather. Some of y'all are ruining it for the rest. 

Optimism is fine, but that can be weenieism too.  It’s important to note the difference.