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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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I'm thinking the fires that happened throughout Australia and also here in the western US, there has to be some effect on long term cooling in the upper atmosphere. In turn.. It should have an effect on pur weather as far as colder and Snowier Winters here in the US. The question is, will it effect the Eastern half this Winter or next? 

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3 hours ago, MarkO said:

Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 

3 hours ago, MarkO said:

Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 

I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm thinking the fires that happened throughout Australia and also here in the western US, there has to be some effect on long term cooling in the upper atmosphere. In turn.. It should have an effect on pur weather as far as colder and Snowier Winters here in the US. The question is, will it effect the Eastern half this Winter or next? 

It could also cool the stratosphere, augmenting the proclivity for a +AO regime, as witnessed last season.

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2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. 

The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. 

If the heights can migrate a bit north in Quebec like the weeklies show, then perhaps we could get more of a Dec 2012 deal where you have that faux blocking, but it is still somewhat effective....we had mostly crap airmasses but many were marginally cold and we did get some snow events that month....esp after 12/20.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Today’s likely the coldest day thru the end of 2020

I don't bet but IMO that's hyperbole (as per your sig.  :D)  Topped out at 27 today.  That was the coldest max in Dec 2001, but that month went subzero 3 times.  12/06 had one day with max 21 but never got below 6 all month.  All other Decembers here had month mini-maxes ranging from 20 down to -3.

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18 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Weren't 93-94, and 95-96, considered to be "Pinatubo winters"?

Not ‘95-96. We were 4-5 years displaced by that point. ‘93-94 it was probably still lingering though not as strong as ‘91-92 and ‘92-93. Don’t forget that ‘93-94 was a +AO/NAO winter. It did have a really good -EPO though for a large chunk of the middle of winter which is why it was so cold. 

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46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@ORH_wxman Do you think that is what is causing this: 

 

 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s tough to say why the strat is cold. It’s been cold for years it seems. 

Yeah I’m not enough of a stratosphere expert to know what is exactly causing the excessive cold up there but maybe it’s at least partly due to the fires HM tweeted about. There was some tropical volcanic activity this year too but I didn’t think any of them were close to large enough to cause really noticeable strat interference ala El Chincon or definitely Pinatubo. 

Maybe it’s a combo of several things. 

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15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah. It’s all connected in one way or another in some form or fashion. The butterfly effect.

Ya..kind of like the Urasian snow cover index and the correlation to good winters in the eastern US?   That too looks to be Voo-Doo lol.  Nobody really knows....just theories that seem to eventually break down sooner or later..so who knows? 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I love how that R2D2 dude from the mid Atlantic Jersey forum always comes in and just posts weenies on everyone’s comments 

Other people are doing it too. First thought was some bots had hacked their way in, now I think it's a side effect of that pesky covid cold.

 

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