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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage coming. Also there’s a sneaky spinner threat on the warm front in CT. For @weatherwiz to miss this is strange 

 

Hard to know what to believe.  Those modeled wind speeds are sometimes absolutely terrible, but it also seems like they've occasionally been verifying.

You guys have had some great high-end wind events when those progs used to never ever seem to work out... so who knows, ha.  Good luck.

Edit: Ha or that other tweet you posted says it better.  Can never know when to trust it.

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess we’ll see?  I wouldn’t be buying all in just yet.  Those are usually overblown, and ya even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.  Let’s See what tomorrow’s modeling shows?

I am well aware of the history of over-done max wind gusts by modeling, but if you have been closely following the short-term record (past year) of the euro ever since last fall, it has been remarkably good with at least 4 significant events...  Maybe it craps the bed this time around, but it deserves to be taken seriously, as far as I am concerned...  especially when it has multiple runs with these numbers...

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7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I am well aware of the history of over-done max wind gusts by modeling, but if you have been closely following the short-term record (past year) of the euro ever since last fall, it has been remarkably good with at least 4 significant events...  Maybe it craps the bed this time around, but it deserves to be taken seriously, as far as I am concerned...  especially when it has multiple runs with these numbers...

We tried to tell em but they yawned 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried to tell em but they yawned 

Lol,   Just a bit skeptical that’s all.  I get it, the euro has been on a hot  streak with wind events the last year, but let’s see what modeling shows later tonight/tmrw?  If it’s still looking like legit high wind warning material come tomorrow,  and verify’s as such, we’ll give you the credit for the early call. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It will be a typical windy night. Lots of 40-50 gusts. Maybe isolated higher. 

That's where I'm at. Cape/Islands has some potential to go higher, but the LLJ cranks too late for most (even up here). 

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Because it’s with convection. Jesus H . 

Visions of derechos dance in your head.

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The thing 10/7 had going for it that this one doesn't is the thermodynamic environment. 10/7 featured some pretty decent low level lapse rates and mid level lapse rates around 7C/km. The timing here doesn't work out for low level lapse rates to be significantly steep, and mid level is pretty meh. Enough for thunder possibly but not robust convection.

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