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Holiday forecasts


Brian D
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/20/2020 at 5:07 PM, Brian D said:

Come Christmas Day, I'm expecting colder weather to arrive as a front from Christmas eve passes through. It looks like a re-enforcing front or a weak clipper/trough may follow behind, so looks mainly cloudy with snow shwers possible and LES.

Here's my map for this holiday.

 

Christmas Day 2020.gif

Christmas models are looking a lot like this forecast I put out. A few days to go though.

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On 10/20/2020 at 5:07 PM, Brian D said:

Come Christmas Day, I'm expecting colder weather to arrive as a front from Christmas eve passes through. It looks like a re-enforcing front or a weak clipper/trough may follow behind, so looks mainly cloudy with snow shwers possible and LES.

Here's my map for this holiday.

 

Christmas Day 2020.gif

Ok, I was really close on this one. This map I made looks like Christmas Eve pm, but my text forecast is good for Christmas day with clds and snow showers and LES events for most everyone, along with the colder temps.

One more holiday to go. Will I get that one?

 

xmas map.gif

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On 10/20/2020 at 5:09 PM, Brian D said:

And lastly, New Years day. Looks like a clipper front New years eve with high pressure building in on New Years.

My map for this day.

 

New Years Day 2021 wx map.gif

Here ya go Baum, I put this out at the same time as the other holidays. Although it being a clipper may not be the case. In taking a closer look, it could be a CO low moving NE through the Lakes. Either way, this is the set up I'm looking for, and it could be a good storm New Years Eve, exiting New Years Day.

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15 minutes ago, Baum said:

^ thanks. I'm sure a detailed snow accumulation graphic paints me in the 12"-18" swath. Always like these New Years Day flips to winter after a mild fall.

Then everyone can immediately start calling 2021 a bad year because it snows two feet right on the 1st. Or, if it snows on NYE then we can call it 2020's last "f*ck you"

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On 10/20/2020 at 5:09 PM, Brian D said:

And lastly, New Years day. Looks like a clipper front New years eve with high pressure building in on New Years.

My map for this day.

 

New Years Day 2021 wx map.gif

Well, I was close on the map. I saw low pressure affecting the eastern/southern Lakes. The evolution to this day was off in my comments tho.

 

New Years map.gif

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

Time for MLK day and Valenties Day, Presidents Day, and St. Paddys day.

Thinking the SSW will muddy predictions for MLK/Val/Presidents' day, but effects should wane by early march. My in-development BS rule has had a good handle on this winter thus far and the waning effects of the SSW should allow a return to the expected progression by the time March rolls in. This is pretty iffy so far, but I drew a rough surface map of what we could expect for the St. Patrick's day period if my model is correct.

9562c541a612126fcc3a034222e1aaef.png

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17 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Thinking the SSW will muddy predictions for MLK/Val/Presidents' day, but effects should wane by early march. My in-development BS rule has had a good handle on this winter thus far and the waning effects of the SSW should allow a return to the expected progression by the time March rolls in. This is pretty iffy so far, but I drew a rough surface map of what we could expect for the St. Patrick's day period if my model is correct.

9562c541a612126fcc3a034222e1aaef.png

Ehh I don't know. Doesn't have random crapvection in Missouri and Kentucky to stop incoming moisture.

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MLK Day....can someone draw a 982 over Indianapolis. Temps in Indy should be 52 degrees. Meanwhile in Chicago 24 degrees with Heavy Snow and blowing snow with 36 mph winds from the northeast. Minneapolis Sunny and -16 at 3pm. Draw it. Thanks in advance.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

MLK Day....can someone draw a 982 over Indianapolis. Temps in Indy should be 52 degrees. Meanwhile in Chicago 24 degrees with Heavy Snow and blowing snow with 36 mph winds from the northeast. Minneapolis Sunny and -16 at 3pm. Draw it. Thanks in advance.

Here ya go! Even complete with the 100% forecast confidence, 24”+, & 60mph gusts 

BF86D6FC-F934-4BDE-B029-BB06528AB9F7.jpeg

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