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Epsilon - #27 Oct 20- , 2020


wdrag
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3 hours ago, Amped said:

So looks like all models the NHC and the ADT were way under on the intensity. Almost a Cat 3

Ships was highest early but consensus and experience probably tempered. Global models have been looking like a beast Fri-Sat.  Have seen 95 KT at 850mb forecast.  So yes all models way too low and way too slow.  Walt 434pm 

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4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS?  GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb...

Possible w phase of northern stream.  Going to be a problem next 5 days at least

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25 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS?  GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb...

Euro is similar.   It backs into Iceland as a 940mb low in the next few frames.

7L3f6h3.png

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

As impressive as this is, it is also positioned inside of a big upper trough.

Epsilon_wv.thumb.jpeg.5fd458759fb0a79ceff6f8af6e938707.jpeg

That makes it even more impressive, what a freak of nature. Usually ULL's are the destroyer of cyclones; this one has provided the perfect pocket for a major

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Pretty amazing little hurricane. A shallow tropopause with cold pool aloft under minimal shear. Core of hurricane positioned perfectly under the small anticyclone, which is of course positioned perfectly in the middle of a large-scale upper trough. Marginal 26-27°C SSTs is more than enough to drive significant lapse rates and core convection. I still didn't expect a major. But I'm not surprised. Ophelia did as much even with cooler heat content but had an even shallower tropopause / cooler dam aloft. Just gotta have the right atmospheric setup at higher latitudes late in the season. That being said, Epsilon has probably peaked. Arguably the prettiest hurricane of the season.

da805ddc45e78810a770a6a09b45ba16.gif&key=420830ba40e460d293c552705cb4cffcf67a4185b3bc868fecafb7ea626c56dd

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4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Pretty amazing little hurricane. A shallow tropopause with cold pool aloft under minimal shear. Core of hurricane positioned perfectly under the small anticyclone, which is of course positioned perfectly in the middle of a large-scale upper trough. Marginal 26-27°C SSTs is more than enough to drive significant lapse rates and core convection. I still didn't expect a major. But I'm not surprised. Ophelia did as much even with cooler heat content but had an even shallower tropopause / cooler dam aloft. Just gotta have the right atmospheric setup at higher latitudes late in the season. That being said, Epsilon has probably peaked. Arguably the prettiest hurricane of the season.

da805ddc45e78810a770a6a09b45ba16.gif&key=420830ba40e460d293c552705cb4cffcf67a4185b3bc868fecafb7ea626c56dd

Didn't think this season had an eye like that in it, haha (kinda funny how it's been so active yet sloppy in shape overall) Very nice!

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